摘要:为明确宁夏枸杞（Lycium barbarum L.）生长季气候变化特征及其对枸杞生长的影响，为决策部门有效利用气候资源提供数据支撑，本文基于1961-2017年宁夏17个气象站点的观测数据，采用数理统计分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测、气候倾向率和相关性检验等方法，分析了宁夏枸杞生育期气候变化特征及其影响。结果表明：气候暖干化是宁夏枸杞生育期气候变化的主要特征。近57 a来，气候变暖使宁夏枸杞生育期平均气温、≥ 10℃积温及日照时数增加，其线性趋势通过了0.001显著性水平检验。平均气温在1990年左右发生突变，1991-2017年平均气温比1961-1990年上升了0.7℃。≥ 10℃积温在20世纪90年代增加速率最大，2003年发生突变，比突变前年平均增加370.6℃。日照时数在2005年前后发生突变，突变后平均年日照时数增加93.9 h。降水量整体呈弱的减少趋势。气候变化对枸杞生长发育的影响利多弊少。气温升高，春季气温回升快，积温增多，整个生育期热量条件充足，使枸杞树萌芽期提前，总生育期延长，单产提高；果熟期、采摘期降水量减少，使枸杞炭疽病、黑果病发生机率减少，有利于品质提高。研究发现，中宁枸杞产量与稳定通过5℃到枸杞萌芽期的积温、≥ 10℃积温均显著正相关。同时，气候变暖增加了冬季农田土壤水分蒸发，病虫害发生有增加趋势。如何充分利用有利的气候资源，减轻或避免气候变化对枸杞生产的不利影响是需要进一步研究的重要内容。
Abstract:In order to clarify the characteristics of climate change (1961-2017) in the growing season of Lycium barbarum and its impact on L. barbarum growth in Ningxia, and to provide corresponding data for effective utilization of climatic resources and scientific theoretical basis for the production and decision-making department of L. barbarum, the characteristics of climate change during the growth period of L. barbarum and its effects in Ningxia were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation detection, climatic tendency rate and correlation test, based on the observations of 17 meteorological stations in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017. Results showed that warming and drying were the main characteristics of climate change during the growth period of L. barbarum in Ningxia. Over the past 57 years, the average temperature, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and sunshine hours during the growing period of L. barbarum in Ningxia increased due to climate warming, and the linear trend passed 0.001 significance level test. Average temperature changed abruptly around 1990, and increased by 0.7℃ during 1991-2017 compared with 1961-1990. ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature had the maximum increase rate in 1990s, and abruptly changed in 2003. After that, annual ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by 370.6℃. Annual sunshine hours increased by 93.9 h in 2005 compared with before 2005. Precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend in 1961-2017. Effects of climate change on the growth of L. barbarum had more advantages than disadvantages. With the increase of air temperature and the rapid rise of air temperature in spring, the germination period of L. barbarum shifted to an earlier date, the total growth period was prolonged, and the yield per unit area was increased, which was beneficial to agricultural production. The decrease of precipitation during fruit ripening and picking period reduced the occurrence of anthracnose and improved the quality of L. barbarum. Furthermore, there was a significant positive correlation between the accumulated temperature from the date of passing 5℃ to the germination stage of L. barbarum, the ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and the yield of L. barbarum in Zhongning. Meanwhile, climate warming increased soil moisture evaporation in winter, which lead to an increasing trend on incidence of pests and diseases of L. barbarum. It needs a further research on how to make full use of favorable climatic resources, to avoid or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change on L. barbarum production.
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