摘要:区域生态承载力评价是国土空间开发与规划的主要依据，其评价结果能反映人类开发与规划影响下的区域生态系统对人类的支撑与承载能力。现有的生态承载力评价方法中，以生态系统服务为主线的评估日渐成熟，但缺乏对生态系统受干扰程度及恢复能力的表征。因此，本研究以石家庄市为例，在生态承载力评价中引入景观格局与植被变化因子来体现生态系统受干扰程度，与生态系统服务构成具有3个准则、11个指标的综合指标体系。评价结果显示：基于栅格处理的石家庄市生态承载力空间分布基本呈现西部山区高，东部低的态势；其中，生态系统服务提供能力分布格局基本与综合生态承载力分布一致，而景观格局指数呈现镶嵌分布，植被变化指数表现为圈层分布，这说明不同指标对综合承载力的贡献存在差异。进一步对比区县及乡镇两级行政尺度的区域分析结果可以看出，小尺度上的指标分布异质性更高，不同级别地方政府的调控、管理方向应当更具有针对性。总体来看，石家庄市西部地区应着重将森林生态系统融入到城市的发展和建设中；东部区县需要处理好生态环境与经济发展的关系，通过生态空间的格局优化提升生态系统服务提供能力，从而提高国土空间综合承载力。
Abstract:The main basis of landscape development and planning is the evaluation of regional ecological carrying capacity. The results of this evaluation can reflect the extent to which ecological carrying capacity can remain unaffected by continuous development and planning activities of humans. Nowadays, among the existing methods for assessing ecological carrying capacity, the method based on ecosystem services value is relatively mature and widely used. However, the assessment of ecosystem services value is based on the classification of ecological land types in the region; therefore, it is difficult to apply where the land use status lacks extensibility and resilience. To fill this gap, this study coupled landscape pattern and vegetation change parameters with the ecosystem service provision capacity through a comprehensive index system with 3 criteria and 11 indicators. The landscape pattern determined the size, shape, and connectivity of various ecological patches, which in turn affected the abundance, distribution, and population viability and anti-interference ability of the landscape. Thus, landscape pattern indexes could be used to identify regional ecological protection priorities under urbanization, further improving regional environmental quality and resource utilization efficiency. The vegetation change index could spatially describe changes in breadth and depth of vegetation cover in regions, which were the result of the interaction between nature and human activities. This study applied the assessment model to Shijiazhuang City, measuring its comprehensive ecological carrying capacity at the grid, township and district scale. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the ecological carrying capacity of Shijiazhuang based on the grid analysis was relatively high in the western mountainous area and low in the east plain. Regarding the indicator layer, the distribution of ecosystem service provision capacity was relatively consistent with the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity distribution, whereas the landscape metrics presented a mosaic distribution pattern and the vegetation change index represented a circle layer distribution pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial heterogeneity of the first-level indicators was more significant. The further regional analysis results focusing on the administrative scales of districts and townships showed that the indicator distribution on smaller scale was more heterogeneous, and evaluation results in some regions were inconsistent with those assessed at higher administrative level. Therefore, local decision-makers should adjust more targeted management objectives and actions according to the jurisdiction. In general, through horizontal analysis in space and vertical contrast on scales, western Shijiazhuang City should focus on integrating the forest ecosystem conservation into urban development and construction; the eastern districts and townships should coordinate between the ecological environment and economic development, and improve the ecosystem service capacity through the optimization of ecological space patterns, thereby improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of national land space.
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