摘要:为准确判定草原生态与经济发展之间的互动关系，科学划分草地生态足迹演变的时间节点，本文以内蒙古典型农牧交错带四子王旗为研究对象，采用1987-2016年草地生态足迹和人均GDP的时间序列，基于BP结构突变协整检验对该区域的草地消耗与经济增长展开分析。结果表明：不考虑结构突变的协整检验，对草原生态保护政策下的四子王旗并不适合；而结构突变的协整检验能良好地反映长时期农牧交错带资源与经济的结构性变化，体现资源消耗与经济增长的动态均衡，并呈现出资源消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系。研究区草地生态足迹的演变可划分为3个阶段：低度协同阶段（1987-2002年）、政策驱动阶段（2002-2009年）和快速发展阶段（2009-2016年）。不同阶段，草地生态足迹的短期波动（-2.289、-1.082和0.495）趋于平缓，长期均衡系数（0.292%、0.728%和1.355%）逐步提升，表明生态保护政策有助于草地资源利用效率的提升。该结果不仅有益于协调区域经济发展与草地资源利用，也为农牧交错带科学编制草地生态保护规划提供一定的参考。
关键词:草地生态足迹/
经济增长/
演变阶段/
BP结构突变/
协整分析/
四子王旗
Abstract:Siziwang Banner is a typical agri-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia, where animal husbandry is the foundation supporting economic development. The grassland resources have a profound influence on the livestock industry. The time scale studied in this paper spans nearly 30 years, and during this period, the grassland resources of Siziwang Banner were degraded by human economic activities on a large scale. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the national and local governments have adopted a series of ecological measures, through projects such as returning farmland to grasslands, and the comprehensive management of grasslands to help improve their ecology. The transformation from grassland degradation to improving ecological, to a certain extent, reflects that regional economic construction is no longer purely at the expense of the environment but is gradually adopting a sustainable development approach. Coordination between economic construction and ecological protection should be emphasized. In order to study grassland ecology and economic development, a feasible ecological evaluation model is needed. The ecological footprint model has been widely used in China, but grassland ecological footprints are rarely found in agro-pastoral interlaced areas. The ecological footprint of the grassland and the time series of GDP per capita from 1987 to 2016 were used to analyze the grassland consumption and economic growth in Siziwang Banner, by using the Bai-Perron structural mutation co-integration test. The results of this co-integration test, which did not consider structural mutation, showed that it was not suitable for Siziwang Banner under a variety of grassland ecological protection policies. Besides, a co-integration test of structural mutation could reflect the economy of the agricultural and pastoral ecotone over a long period. The structural changes reflected the dynamic equilibrium between grassland consumption and economic growth and presented a one-way causality from grassland consumption to economic growth. The evolution of the grassland ecological footprint could be divided into three stages:a low-degree coordination stage (1987-2002), a policy-driven stage (2002-2009), and a rapid development stage (2009-2016). In the different stages, the absolute value of short-term fluctuations of the grasslands ecological footprint tended to be flat, but the long-term equilibrium coefficients gradually increased. The results showed that the ecological protection policy was helpful for improving the utilization efficiency of grassland resources. We found that the dependence of economic growth on grassland consumption gradually decreased, and the mode of economic growth at the expense of resources changed under the policies of ecological protection over the past 20 years. Sustainable methods for both economic development and ecological protection were advancing. Our results were not only beneficial to coordinate the development of regional economies and the utilization of grassland resources, but could also be used as reference for the future scientific planning of grassland ecological protection in the ecotones of agriculture and animal husbandry.
Key words:Grassland ecological footprint/
Economic growth/
Evolution stage/
BP structural mutation/
Co-integration analysis/
Siziwang Banner
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