石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例

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清华大学辅仁网/2017-07-07

石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例

刘毅¹(

),刘龙¹,李王锋²,董业斌³,张秀青³

2. 北京清控人居环境研究院有限公司,北京 100083
3. 大连市环境科学设计研究院,大连 116023

Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning

Yi LIU¹(

),Long LIU¹,Wangfeng LI²,Yebin DONG³,Xiuqing ZHANG³

1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2. Tsinghua Holdings Human Settlement Environment Institute,Beijing 100083, China
3. Dalian Municipal Design and Research Institute of Environmental Science, Dalian 116023, China

摘要:

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摘要为定量评估石化园区规划中的区域尺度大气环境风险水平,该文从源头预防高风险产业集聚导致的布局矛盾,综合运用风险识别技术、 CALPUFF大气扩散模型、空间分析方法,构建了石化园区规划层面大气环境风险模拟方法。以某石化园区规划为例,对涉及丙烯腈、氯气、光气、硫化氢、氨气的6个重大危险源的大气风险开展了不同季节下的事故扩散模拟。结果表明:1141.5km²(占评价区域98.7%)范围内大气环境风险水平不同程度提高,其中事故后可能对人体造成不可恢复影响的范围达到326.5km²(28.2%); 秋季气象条件最不利于事故扩散,区域风险水平高于其他季节;二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)项目对区域大气风险水平变化的贡献超过90%。

关键词 ：规划环境风险评价,区域风险,CALPUFF大气扩散模型,石化园区,事故风险

Abstract：An integrated method combining risk analysis, a CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km². In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km², human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate producing(MDI) project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.

Key words：planning environmental risk assessment regional risk CALPUFF dispersion model petrochemical park accidental risk

收稿日期: 2013-11-19 出版日期: 2015-05-15

基金资助:中国环境保护部环保公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201209043)

引用本文:

刘毅,刘龙,李王锋,董业斌,张秀青. 石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(1): 80-86.
Yi LIU,Long LIU,Wangfeng LI,Yebin DONG,Xiuqing ZHANG. Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 80-86.

链接本文:

http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I1/80

图表:

高风险园区规划大气风险模拟方法

项目名称	风险源	物质	在线量/t	泄漏方式	源强/(kg·s^-1)	H_t/m	σ_y/m	σ_z/m
规划炼油S1	硫磺回收装置	硫化氢	10^[23]	全部泄漏	5.56	5	1.16	2.33
规划炼油S2	硫磺回收装置	硫化氢	10	全部泄漏	5.56	5	1.16	2.33
离子膜烧碱S3	液氯槽车	氯气	1	全部泄漏	0.56	2	0.47	0.93
MDI项目S4	液氯槽车	氯气	1	全部泄漏	0.56	2	0.47	0.93
MDI项目S4	光气化装置	光气	16	全部泄漏	8.89	2	0.47	0.93
丙烯腈项目S5	液氨储罐	氨气	3804	20%泄漏	105.56	2	0.47	0.93
丙烯腈项目S5	丙烯腈储罐	丙烯腈	6800	1%泄漏	37.78	2	0.47	0.93
ABS树脂S6	生产装置	丙烯腈	150	10%泄漏	8.33	5	1.16	2.33

规划拟建的石化园区重大泄漏风险源

危险物质	风险基准质量浓度/(mg·m^-3)
危险物质	嗅阈值	TEEL-1	TEEL-2	TEEL-3
硫化氢	0.035^[25]	0.71	38	70
氯气	0.06^[26]	1.4	5.8	58
氨气	1.138^[27]	21	110	770
光气	2^[28]	0.4	1.2	3
丙烯腈	—	10	120	220

风险评价基准体系^[24]

大气风险分布图(基于2010年1月、 4月、 7月、 10月气象数据)

季度	风险标准	超过风险基准的面积/km²	占评价区域比例/%
春季	低于嗅阈值	532.9	46.1
	超过嗅阈值	327.8	28.4
	超过TEEL-1	197.8	17.1
	超过TEEL-2	48.9	4.2
	超过TEEL-3	48.5	4.2
夏季	低于嗅阈值	270.3	23.4
	超过嗅阈值	508.1	44.0
	超过TEEL-1	251.2	21.7
	超过TEEL-2	79.2	6.9
	超过TEEL-3	47.1	4.1
秋季	低于嗅阈值	36.0	3.1
	超过嗅阈值	338.3	29.3
	超过TEEL-1	469.6	40.6
	超过TEEL-2	152.0	13.1
	超过TEEL-3	160.1	13.9
冬季	低于嗅阈值	270.3	23.4
	超过嗅阈值	385.6	33.4
	超过TEEL-1	350.0	30.3
	超过TEEL-2	85.4	7.4
	超过TEEL-3	64.7	5.6

区域大气风险分级统计

季度	硫化氢/S1	硫化氢/S2	氯气 /S3	氯气 /S4	光气 /S4	氨气 /S5	丙烯腈/S5	丙烯腈/S6
春季	3.3	3.1	3.7	0.0	78.4	19.0	7.9	0.0
夏季	2.5	3.3	2.6	0.0	79.9	28.4	10.5	0.0
秋季	6.7	9.0	3.2	0.2	90.3	24.0	12.3	0.2
冬季	6.1	4.3	4.2	0.0	95.3	26.8	13.9	0.0

不同风险源、不同物质对区域风险贡献(以超过TEEl-2为例)%

排除MDI项目后的区域大气风险空间分布

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