基于经济学实验的信息传递过程中北京二手房信息扩散程度测算

删除或更新信息，请邮件至freekaoyan#163.com(#换成@)

清华大学辅仁网/2017-07-07

张红,张洋,陈玄冰

Experimental evaluation of Beijing resale housing information diffusion during information transmission

Hong ZHANG,Yang ZHANG,Xuanbing CHEN

Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

摘要:

HTML
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS) 背景资料

文章导读

摘要为揭示住房信息传递过程,进行了住房信息扩散程度的测算。提出了住房信息扩散程度测算方法,设计和实施了针对北京二手房交易过程的实验,搜集实验数据测算和分析住房信息扩散程度。研究表明: 在实验市场中二手房信息扩散程度表现为预测价、报价、成交价与二手房价值的偏差平均每实验年缩小1.52、 2.41和0.67万实验元; 在二手房使用寿命临近期满时,二手房信息完全扩散到所有非知情交易人;在信息传递过程中,二手房信息的扩散会经历反复,信息扩散程度存在波动,但波动幅度较为稳定。

关键词 ：住房信息,信息传递,信息扩散程度,二手房,实验经济学

Abstract：Housing information diffusion was measured to evaluate housing information transmission in Beijing. The information was measured based on Beijing's resale housing transactions. The results indicate that the degree of information diffusion for resale housing shows that the average variation of the predicted housing price was 15,200 experimental Yuan, of the offering price was 24,100 experimental Yuan and of the trading price was 6,700 experimental Yuan. The results also showed that the housing information diffused into all uninformed traders by the end of the resale housing's residual service life. The direction of the information diffusion varied and its degrees fluctuates, but the fluctuations tended to remain stable.

Key words：housing information information transmission information diffusion resale housing experimental economics

收稿日期: 2012-11-20 出版日期: 2015-09-03

ZTFLH:

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目 (71373143)

引用本文:

张红, 张洋, 陈玄冰. 基于经济学实验的信息传递过程中北京二手房信息扩散程度测算[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 54(5): 602-606.
Hong ZHANG, Yang ZHANG, Xuanbing CHEN. Experimental evaluation of Beijing resale housing information diffusion during information transmission. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2014, 54(5): 602-606.

链接本文:

http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2014/V54/I5/602

图表:

第n实验年	R_n/(万实验元·实验年^-1)	Pn*/(万实验元)
2012	6.48	152.71
2013	6.59	150.62
2014	6.90	148.35
2015	6.84	145.69
2016	7.08	143.02
2017	7.39	140.02
2018	8.01	136.60
2019	8.32	132.45
2020	8.40	127.86
2021	8.66	123.04
2022	8.77	117.81
2023	8.61	112.31
2024	8.15	106.81
2025	8.89	101.62
2026	9.32	95.52
2027	9.64	88.78
2028	9.65	81.52
2029	10.21	74.02
2030	11.06	65.73
2031	11.37	56.31
2032	11.36	46.28
2033	11.91	35.97
2034	12.55	24.78
2035	12.60	12.60

二手房租金与价值表

实验变量	参数值
非知情交易人数	8人
知情交易人数	4人
二手房数	12套
实验参与激励	每人20 ￥RMB
实验交易激励	每50万实验币兑换1 ￥RMB
实验预测激励	奖励前6名被试每人20 ￥RMB
初始资金	每人500万实验元
初始资产	每人1套二手房

实验变量的参数值

第n 实验年	预测价均值F?n(万实验元·套 -1)	报价均值B?n(万实验元·套 -1)	成交价均值T?n(万实验元·套 -1)
2012	188.86	204.89	164.86
2013	188.26	228.79	193.33
2014	206.54	228.71	190.00
2015	204.39	209.88	215.00
2016	181.36	217.86	220.00
2017	200.19	205.58	231.33
2018	208.72	254.67	240.67
2019	223.29	176.67	220.00
2020	196.56	234.45	210.00
2021	191.79	240.45	200.00
2022	202.62	226.30	255.00
2023	227.71	221.11	261.67
2024	237.49	210.57	227.50
2025	214.51	218.91	230.00
2026	210.10	256.82	222.50
2027	211.54	232.73	215.00
2028	197.15	200.56	183.33
2029	174.71	192.86	150.00
2030	150.04	158.33	160.00
2031	128.04	123.73	100.00
2032	91.70	84.13	62.00
2033	60.33	38.00	31.67
2034	23.38	19.83	21.67
2035	13.81	9.33	9.33

实验数据平均值统计表

第n 实验年	以预测价表示		以报价表示		以成交价表示
	F?n-Pn*	DF₍_n_,_n+₁₎	B?n-Pn*	DB₍_n_,_n+₁₎	T?n-Pn*	DT₍_n_,_n+₁₎
	(万实验元)	(万实验元·实验年^-1)	(万实验元)	(万实验元·实验年^-1)	(万实验元)	(万实验元·实验年^-1)
2012	36.15	-1.49	52.18	-25.99	12.15	-30.56
2013	37.64	-20.55	78.17	-2.19	42.71	1.06
2014	58.19	-0.51	80.36	16.17	41.65	-27.66
2015	58.70	20.36	64.19	-10.65	69.31	-7.67
2016	38.34	-21.83	74.84	9.28	76.98	-14.33
2017	60.17	-11.95	65.56	-52.51	91.31	-12.76
2018	72.12	-18.72	118.07	73.85	104.07	16.52
2019	90.84	22.14	44.22	-62.37	87.55	5.41
2020	68.70	-0.05	106.59	-10.82	82.14	5.18
2021	68.75	-16.06	117.41	8.92	76.96	-60.23
2022	84.81	-30.59	108.49	-0.31	137.19	-12.17
2023	115.40	-15.28	108.80	5.04	149.36	28.67
2024	130.68	17.79	103.76	-13.53	120.69	-7.69
2025	112.89	-1.69	117.29	-44.01	128.38	1.40
2026	114.58	-8.18	161.30	17.35	126.98	0.76
2027	122.76	7.13	143.95	24.91	126.22	24.41
2028	115.63	14.94	119.04	0.20	101.81	25.83
2029	100.69	16.38	118.84	26.24	75.98	-18.29
2030	84.31	12.58	92.60	25.18	94.27	50.58
2031	71.73	26.31	67.42	29.57	43.69	27.97
2032	45.42	21.06	37.85	35.82	15.72	20.02
2033	24.36	25.76	2.03	6.98	-4.30	-1.19
2034	-1.40	-2.61	-4.95	-1.68	-3.11	0.16
2035	1.21	-	-3.27	-	-3.27	-
均值	71.36	1.52	82.28	2.41	74.77	0.67

北京二手房信息扩散程度表

北京二手房信息扩散程度图

3个阶段信息扩散程度绝对值对比图

参考文献:

[1]	卢佳平. 基于价格信息传递的住房市场效率研究[D]. 清华大学, 2008. LU Jiaping. Housing market efficiency based on the price information transmission [D]. Tsinghua University, 2008. (in Chinese)
[2]	Gau G. Weakform test of the efficiency of real estate investment markets[J]. Financial Review, 1984, 19(4): 301-320.
[3]	Guntermann K, Smith R. Efficiency of the market for residential real estate[J]. Land Economics, 1987, 63(1): 34-46.
[4]	Shiller R J. Speculative prices and popular models[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990, 4(2): 55-65.
[5]	Guntermann K L, Stefan C N. Empirical tests of real estate market efficiency[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1991, 4(3): 297-313.
[6]	Darrat A F, Glascock J L. On the real estate market efficiency[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1993, 7(1): 55-72.
[7]	郑思齐, 刘洪玉. 房地产市场有效性研究——以北京和上海为例[J]. 商业研究, 2006, 339(7): 191-195. ZHENG Siqi, LIU Hongyu. Real estate market efficiency[J]. Commercial Research, 2006, 339(7): 191-195. (in Chinese)
[8]	Clapp J M, Tirtiroglu D. Positive feedback trading and diffusion of asset price changes: evidence from housing transactions[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1994, 24(3): 337-355.
[9]	Stevenson S. House price diffusion and inter-regional and cross-border house price dynamics[J]. Journal of Property Research, 2004, 21(4): 301-320.
[10]	卢佳平, 张红. 基于价格信息传递的住房市场空间效率[J]. 清华大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 48(12): 2041-2043. LU Jiaping, ZHANG Hong. Housing market spatial efficiency based on pricing information transmission[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University: Science and Technology, 2008, 48(12): 2041-2043. (in Chinese)
[11]	Holly S, Pesaran M H, Yamagata T. A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 158(1): 160-173.
[12]	Dolde W, Dogan T. Temporal and spatial information diffusion in real estate price changes and variances[J]. Real Estate Economics, 1997, 25(4): 539-565.
[13]	Fischbacher U. z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments[J]. Experimental Economics, 2007, 10(2): 171-178.

[1]	张红,孙煦,张洋. 房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应:来自二手房交易实验的证据[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(1): 63-67.