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基于威胁传播的复杂信息系统安全风险评估

清华大学 辅仁网/2017-07-07
基于威胁传播的复杂信息系统安全风险评估
马刚1,2,杜宇鸽3,荣江1,2,甘家瑞1,2,史忠植1(),安波1
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3. 中国信息安全测评中心, 北京 100085
Risk assessment of complex information system security based on threat propagation
Gang MA1,2,Yuge DU3,Jiang RONG1,2,Jiarui GAN1,2,Zhongzhi SHI1(),Bo AN1
1. The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Information Processing, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. China Information Technology Security Evaluation Center, Beijing 100085, China

摘要:
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摘要为评估复杂信息系统安全风险,该文提出了一种基于资产间威胁传播的风险评估方法。该方法将复杂信息系统各资产间的威胁传播路径定义为一棵威胁传播树,通过计算威胁传播树中各结点的期望损失以及威胁传播树出现的概率来对整个复杂信息系统进行风险安全评估。为验证本文所提方法的正确性、可行性,该文选取了一个具有代表性的实例阐述了所提方法在复杂信息系统安全风险评估中的应用。通过实例分析表明基于威胁传播的复杂信息系统安全风险评估方法强调不同结点受到威胁作用概率的不同性,威胁在结点之间的传播性,并且能够提示在不同时间段的重点保护结点。比起传统的孤立结点分析方法更具客观性与准确性,能够很好地指导安全风险管理者为复杂信息系统制定合理的安全保护策略。
关键词 ：风险评估,资产,威胁传播树
Abstract：This paper presents a risk assessment method based on threat propagation between assets for assessing the risks related to complex information system security. This method describes the threat propagation route between assets as a threat propagation tree, with the risk to the complex information system security assessed by the expected value loss of each node in the threat propagation tree with the probability of each step in the threat propagation tree. The accuracy of this model is evaluated by applying the model to a representative complex information system. The analysis shows that this method represents the different probabilities for different threatened nodes and the threat propagation between nodes to identiby the key protected nodes during different periods. The system is more objective and accurate than the traditional isolated node analysis method and is able to guide security risk managers to formulate reasonable security protection strategies for complex information systems.

Key words：risk assessmentassetthreat propagation tree
收稿日期: 2013-12-01 出版日期: 2015-04-16
ZTFLH: 
基金资助:国家 “九七三” 重点基础研究项目 (2013CB329502);国家 “八六三” 高技术项目 (2012AA011003);国家 “十二五” 科技支撑计划项目 (2012BA107B02);国家自然科学基金资助项目 (61035003)
引用本文:
马刚, 杜宇鸽, 荣江, 甘家瑞, 史忠植, 安波. 基于威胁传播的复杂信息系统安全风险评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 54(1): 35-43.
Gang MA, Yuge DU, Jiang RONG, Jiarui GAN, Zhongzhi SHI, Bo AN. Risk assessment of complex information system security based on threat propagation. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2014, 54(1): 35-43.
链接本文:
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2014/V54/I1/35


图表:
复杂信息系统实例
复杂信息系统构成要素及其相互关系
威胁从资产a4传播到a1的详细过程
两种威胁在四结点复杂信息系统中的传播情况
TSG所有连通子图的全部生成树组合
三结点复杂信息系统拓扑结构图
结点 初始状态 脆弱性 威胁 转移状态 δ
a0 s0 v0 t0 s1 0.320
a0 s0 v1 t0 s1 0.286
a0 s0 v0 t1 s1 0.319
a0 s0 v1 t1 s1 0.075
a1 s0 v0 t0 s1 0.114
a1 s0 v1 t0 s1 0.323
a1 s0 v0 t1 s1 0.232
a1 s0 v1 t1 s1 0.331
a2 s0 v0 t0 s1 0.366
a2 s0 v1 t0 s1 0.031
a2 s0 v0 t1 s1 0.353
a2 s0 v1 t1 s1 0.250


结点状态转移概率
结点 初始状态 转移状态 价值损失ΔW
a0 s0 s1 24.454
a1 s0 s1 17.241
a2 s0 s1 58.305


结点状态转移价值损失ΔW
结点 初始状态 η
a0 s0 0.532
a1 s0 0.352
a2 s0 0.116


结点原发威胁概率η
威胁 结点 转移状态 ξ
t0 a0 s1 0.411
t1 a0 s1 0.448
te a0 s1 0.141
t0 a1 s1 0.287
t1 a1 s1 0.359
te a1 s1 0.354
t0 a2 s1 0.476
t1 a2 s1 0.180
te a2 s1 0.344


结点发出威胁概率ξ
脆弱性 结点 初始状态 威胁 β
v0 a0 s0 t0 0.446
v1 a0 s0 t0 0.183
ve a0 s0 t0 0.371
v0 a0 s0 t1 0.477
v1 a0 s0 t1 0.040
ve a0 s0 t1 0.483
v0 a1 s0 t0 0.413
v1 a1 s0 t0 0.170
ve a1 s0 t0 0.417
v0 a1 s0 t1 0.045
v1 a1 s0 t1 0.915
ve a1 s0 t1 0.040
v0 a2 s0 t0 0.445
v1 a2 s0 t0 0.034
ve a2 s0 t0 0.521
v0 a2 s0 t1 0.208
v1 a2 s0 t1 0.433
ve a2 s0 t1 0.359


结点脆弱性被威胁作用概率β
结点a0受到原发威胁作用时的所有威胁传播树
威胁传播树Trj 概率P(Trj) 风险R(Trj)
Tr1 0.452 145 2.156 706
Tr2 0.012 504 0.081 632
Tr3 0.020 676 0.210 313
Tr4 0.008 250 0.118 193
Tr5 0.012 020 0.184 658
Tr6 0.011 112 0.178 734
Tr7 0.024 560 0.509 961
Tr8 0.000 065 0.001 052
Tr9 0.000 075 0.001 287
Tr10 0.000 361 0.007 112
Tr11 0.000 415 0.008 608
Tr12 0.000 138 0.002 227
Tr13 0.000 008 0.000 150
Tr14 0.000 224 0.003 842
Tr15 0.000 012 0.000 256


威胁传播树概率及产生的风险
本文方法与传统方法进行系统风险评估对比


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