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| 产权约束对景气市场住房报价的影响——基于Stein模型的改进与数值模拟 |
龙奋杰1,2( ),龙振兴2,王萧濛2 |
| 2. 清华大学 建设管理系, 房地产研究所, 北京 100084 |
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| Effect of equity constraints on housing prices in rising markets |
| Fenjie LONG1,2(),Zhenxing LONG2,Xiaomeng WANG2 |
1. Guizhou Insititue of Technology, Guiyang 550003, China
2. Institute of Real Estate Studies, Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| 文章导读 |
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摘要为了研究景气市场下,产权约束对住房报价的影响,该文采用理论分析和数值模拟的方法,通过引入搬迁阻滞系数来改进Stein模型,再利用Matlab对市场价格变动下新增的住房需求进行模拟。结果表明: 当首付比增加到0.3时,价格的上升不会释放过多的新增需求; 而当首付比降到0.1, 价格的上升将迅速释放大量的住房需求; 当全体居民的未偿还贷款较少时,价格上升释放的总需求将较大。由此验证了搬迁阻滞效应的存在使得居民改善房屋面积呈“跳跃”状上升。这会导致即使在房地产市场处于上升的过程中,产权约束也会迫使改善住房条件的居民提高报价,从而推动价格更快上升,后续的进入者出于改善住房条件的目的也采取同样提高报价的策略,这样价格上升完成了一轮自我强化。
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| 关键词 ：产权约束,搬迁阻滞,跳跃性消费,卖方行为,价量关系,房价 |
Abstract：The purpose of this paper is to describe how equity constraints influence housing prices in rising markets through theoretical analysis and simulation. Existing models are modified by adding a coefficient for the household mobility blocking to simulate the demand with changing market prices. The result shows that increasing prices have little effect on demand for down payments proportions of 0.3, but have great effect on demand when the down payment proportion drops to 0.1. Less non-performing loans lead to more demand released by rising prices. Thus, when suffering from the blocking effect, equity constrained sellers list and finally receive a higher price in rising markets, resulting in the sale prices of completed deals increasing more quickly. Subsequent entrants then set higher listing prices for the purpose of increasing house size, which results in self-reinforcing price rises.
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| Key words：equity constraintmobility blockconsumption jumpseller behaviorprice-volume relationshiphousing price |
| 收稿日期: 2013-03-29 出版日期: 2015-09-03 |
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| 基金资助:国家社会科学基金重大项目 (09&ZD042) |
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