摘要:明确区域尺度上外来入侵植物的潜在分布格局及入侵风险区对入侵种的预防和控制具有重要意义。以国家重点管理外来入侵物种黄花刺茄（Solanum rostratum Dunal）为研究对象，以其扩散蔓延的新疆地区为研究区域，基于生物气候、土壤、地形等60个自然环境因子和人类活动强度因子，应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术分别构建了现代气候情景及人类活动干扰下的黄花刺茄适宜生境预测模型，分析探讨了人类活动及自然环境因子对黄花刺茄空间分布的影响。结果表明：人类活动干扰下的训练集和测试集的AUC值均大于无人类活动干扰的AUC值，无人类活动干扰下黄花刺茄在新疆的总适生面积为327784.36 km²，人类活动干扰下总适生面积为445619.96 km²；阿勒泰地区北部、塔城中部和南部、博州中部和东部、伊犁州中部、克州西部、五家渠市、阜康市、玛纳斯县、呼图壁县为高危入侵风险区；影响黄花刺茄潜在分布的主导变量为年降雨量、人类活动强度、海拔、下层土沙含量、降雨量的季节性变化和年平均温，黄花刺茄在新疆的扩散与人类活动强度呈正相关；黄花刺茄在新疆的分布未达到饱和且处于逐步扩散态势，呈现以昌吉州和乌鲁木齐市为中心，向天山以北和新疆以西的区域辐射状扩散。



Abstract:Studying the potential distribution and risk area of alien invasive species is very important to prevent and control the expansion of these species. As alien invasive species Solanum rostratum Dunal is spreading rapidly in Xinjiang, this study took S. rostratum as object, and based on 60 human activity intensity and environmental factors including biological climate, soil, and topography, used the Maximum Entropy Model and ArcGIS Spatial Analysis to construct a suitable habitat prediction model for S. rostratum under the influence of modern climate scenarios and human activities, and analyzed the influences of human activities and natural environmental factors. The result shows that the AUC value of the test set under human activity interference is greater than that with no human activity interference. The total suitable area of S. rostratum in Xinjiang without interference from human activities is 327784.36 km² and under interference from human activities it is 445619.96 km². The North Altay region, central and southern Tacheng, central and eastern Bozhou, central Yili, western Kezhou, Wujiaqu, Fukang, Manas, and Hutubi are high-risk areas. The dominant variables influencing the potential distribution of S. rostratum are the rainfall in the driest season, human activities, elevation, average temperature of the wettest season, the content of the lower soil sediment, annual rainfall, and temperature. The proliferation of S. rostratum in Xinjiang is positively correlated with the intensity of human activities. The distribution of S. rostratum in Xinjiang has not reached saturation and is gradually spreading; with Changji and Urumqi as the center, it currently spreads radially to north of Tianshan and west of Xinjiang.





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