), 刘丹, 牛燕华 鲁东大学教育科学学院, 山东 烟台 264011
收稿日期:2019-07-04出版日期:2020-10-25发布日期:2020-08-24通讯作者:耿晓伟E-mail:fengandwei@126.com基金资助:* 国家自然科学基金项目(71401068);国家自然科学基金项目(71971104);教育部人文社科一般项目(19YJA190002);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划(2019RWF001)Analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecast
GENG Xiaowei(), LIU Dan, NIU Yanhua School of Education Science, Ludong University, Yantai 264011, China
Received:2019-07-04Online:2020-10-25Published:2020-08-24Contact:GENG Xiaowei E-mail:fengandwei@126.com摘要/Abstract
摘要： 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1(采用图片启动)和实验2(采用语言流畅性任务)考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响, 并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策(生育二孩)为例, 考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现:分析思维会降低情感预测强度, 进而降低影响偏差。
图/表 6
图1接受/拒绝条件下启动分析思维对情感预测影响偏差的影响
图1接受/拒绝条件下启动分析思维对情感预测影响偏差的影响
图2接受条件下情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。
图2接受条件下情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。
图3拒绝条件下情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。
图3拒绝条件下情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。表1不同实验条件下消极情感预测、情感体验、影响偏差的独立样本t检验
| 因变量 | 启动组 | 控制组 | t | df | p | 95%置信区间 | d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 情感预测 | 2.19 ± 0.81 | 2.78 ± 0.99 | -2.36 | 50 | 0.02 | [-1.09, -0.87] | 0.65 |
| 情感体验 | 1.94 ± 0.54 | 2.09 ± 1.09 | -0.65 | 50 | 0.52 | [-0.63, 0.33] | 0.17 |
| 影响偏差 | 0.26 ± 0.65 | 0.69 ± 0.83 | -2.11 | 50 | 0.04 | [-0.85, -0.02] | 0.58 |
表1不同实验条件下消极情感预测、情感体验、影响偏差的独立样本t检验
| 因变量 | 启动组 | 控制组 | t | df | p | 95%置信区间 | d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 情感预测 | 2.19 ± 0.81 | 2.78 ± 0.99 | -2.36 | 50 | 0.02 | [-1.09, -0.87] | 0.65 |
| 情感体验 | 1.94 ± 0.54 | 2.09 ± 1.09 | -0.65 | 50 | 0.52 | [-0.63, 0.33] | 0.17 |
| 影响偏差 | 0.26 ± 0.65 | 0.69 ± 0.83 | -2.11 | 50 | 0.04 | [-0.85, -0.02] | 0.58 |
图4情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。
图4情感预测强度在启动分析思维对影响偏差影响中的中介作用 注:启动分析思维为虚拟变量, 0 = 控制组, 1 = 启动组。表2启动分析思维对积极和消极情感预测的独立样本t检验
| 因变量 | 分析思维 | 情感预测 | t | df | p | 95%置信区间 | d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 积极情感 | 分析思维 | 4.54 ± 1.63 | 2.02 | 106 | 0.046 | [0.01, 1.27] | 0.39 |
| 控制组 | 5.18 ± 1.66 | ||||||
| 消极情感 | 分析思维 | 2.98 ± 1.32 | -1.01 | 106 | 0.314 | [-0.86, 0.28] | -0.19 |
| 控制组 | 2.69 ± 1.65 |
表2启动分析思维对积极和消极情感预测的独立样本t检验
| 因变量 | 分析思维 | 情感预测 | t | df | p | 95%置信区间 | d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 积极情感 | 分析思维 | 4.54 ± 1.63 | 2.02 | 106 | 0.046 | [0.01, 1.27] | 0.39 |
| 控制组 | 5.18 ± 1.66 | ||||||
| 消极情感 | 分析思维 | 2.98 ± 1.32 | -1.01 | 106 | 0.314 | [-0.86, 0.28] | -0.19 |
| 控制组 | 2.69 ± 1.65 |
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