关键词:旅游经济增长;城乡收入差距;E-G协整检验;误差修正模型;格兰杰因果;中国 Abstract This paper depicts the regional inequality of the domestic tourism economy and the regional inequality of urban-rural income in China from 1999 to 2013 using the coefficient of population-weighted variation. We analyzed the relationship between inequality of domestic tourism economy and regional inequality of urban-rural income using the Engel-Granger Two-step Co-integration Model,Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Model. We found that tourism economic growth and urban-rural income gap is convergent in all regions. Among all regions,the trend of convergence is most significant in the national scope. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the inequality of domestic tourism expansion and inequality of urban-rural income gap in China and all other regions. Particularly,the coefficient of population-weighted variation of urban-rural income gap increased 0.631 5% while the degree of variation of tourism economy growth increased 1%. The error correction model showed that for the short-term equilibrium relationship,increasing by 1% the degree of variation tourism economic growth,increases the degree of variation of urban-rural income gap by 0.631 5%. Moreover,the more advanced the regional economy,the stronger the adjustment in long-term equilibrium in the short-term. This is because with a more stable basis and better environment for development,the expansion of tourism in these areas is more likely to have positive effects on reducing urban-rural income gaps. The results of the Granger Causality Model showed that the growth of degree of variation of the tourism economy is the cause of increasing the degree of variation of the urban-rural income gap,but not vice versa. These data show that growth in the tourism economy in China can reduce urban-rural income gaps.
从图1可以看出,1999-2013年间,全国及东、中、西部地区的人均国内旅游收入人口加权变异系数均呈现明显下降趋势。其中东部地区的下降趋势较为平缓,全国的下降趋势最明显,其人口加权变异系数从1999年的1.13下降到了2013年的0.61,下降了46.01%。中部和西部在整体下降的基础上,在个别年份呈现出局部上升趋势。从中可以看出,旅游经济增长在各地区都呈现整体收敛趋势,其中全国的空间收敛趋势最明显。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图11999-2013年人均国内旅游收入和城乡收入差距的人口加权变异系数 -->Figure 1Coefficient of population-weighted variation of per capita domestic tourism income and urban-rural income gap of China from 1999 to 2013 -->
利用ADF和LLC两种检验方法对全国及东、中、西部的lnTDCV、lnGAPCV、∆lnTDCV(lnTDCV的一阶差分)、∆lnGAPCV(lnGAPCV的一阶差分)平稳性进行判断,检验结果如表1所示。结果显示,除极个别情况外,在对全国及东、中、西部的面板序列lnTDCV和lnGAPCV进行单位根检验时,其相应的ADF值和LLC值均大于5%的检验水平,说明序列lnTDCV和序列lnGAPCV是非平稳的;对非平稳的序列lnTDCV和序列lnGAPCV的一阶差分序列(分别为∆lnTDCV和∆lnGAPCV)进行检验时,其相应的ADF值、LLC值均小于5%的检验水平,因此认为序列lnTDCV和序列lnGAPCV的一阶差分序列是平稳的,所以序列lnTDCV和序列lnGAPCV都通过了单位根检验,是一阶单整序列,具备考察变量之间是否存在协整关系的条件,可以进一步判断序列之间是否存在长期均衡关系。 Table 1 表1 表1全国及东、中、西部地区lnTDCV、lnGAPCV的单位根检验结果 Table 1The unit root test of lnTDCV and lnGAPCV in the national,eastern,central and western areas
在面板数据lnTDCV和lnGAPCV均一阶单整的前提下对二者之间长期均衡关系进行检验,结果如表2所示。表2刻画了lnGAPCV和lnTDCV的长期均衡关系,从调整后的拟合优度R2统计检验值来看,在全部模型中,西部和全国的lnGAPCV与lnTDCV回归方程的拟合效果相对较高。从长期看,西部的模型中R2=0.71,全国的模型中R2=0.94,说明西部和全国旅游经济增长的变异对城乡收入差距变异影响显著,二者之间存在长期均衡的关系。具体地,西部旅游经济增长的空间变异每增加1%,城乡收入差距变异就会增加0.300 9%,从全国看,旅游经济增长的空间变异每呈现1%的增长,城乡收入差距变异就会增加0.516 9%。公式(2)的模型说明从长期均衡关系可以解释旅游经济增长的空间变异与城乡收入差距的空间变异具有正向相关性。 Table 2 表2 表2全国及东、中、西部地区面板数据模型估计结果 Table 2The results of panel co-integration test in the national,eastern,central and western areas
系数
全国
东部
中部
西部
截距项
-1.612 2 (-200.221 0)
-1.052 9 (-51.742 7)
-0.932 8 (-58.136 7)
1.502 1 (-33.437 1)
C1
0.516 9 (14.800 7)
(0.685 6) 0.249 4
0.061 2 (2.663 3)
0.300 9 (5.938 8)
R2
0.94
0.53
0.31
0.71
新窗口打开 对表2中的全国及东、中、西部地区四个回归方程的残差序列 进行单位根检验,结果如表3。结果表明 在5%的显著水平下均拒绝残差序列存在单位根的原假设,说明回归方程的设立比较合理,可确定 为平稳序列,即 ~I(0)。根据协整关系的定义,可以认为全国及东、中、西部地区的lnGAPCV与lnTDCV之间存在协整关系。 Table 3 表3 表3残差序列单位根检验结果 Table 3Results of unit root test of residual sequence
上述的协整检验和误差修正模型确定了lnGAPCV与lnTDCV之间存在长期和短期的协整关系,但是究竟是旅游经济增长变异影响了城乡收入差距差异变化还是城乡收入差距差异变化导致了旅游经济增长变异?两者孰因孰果还是互为因果关系?本文继续对lnGAPCV与lnTDCV进行格兰杰因果关系检验,分别取滞后期为1和滞后期为2,检验结果见表4。 Table 4 表4 表4lnGAPCV和lnTDCV的格兰杰因果关系检验 Table 4The results of granger causality test of lnGAPCV and lnTDCV
在前人的研究基础上,本文就旅游经济增长和城乡收入差距本身存在差异而言,对二者的变异关系进行了探讨。研究存在一些不足,比如测度区域经济增长差异的方法有很多,本文根据方法的适用性以及研究的具体问题仅采用了人口加权变异系数来测度旅游经济增长和城乡收入差距的变异程度,有****采用多种方法来衡量区域经济增长的不平衡程度以作对比,值得借鉴和学习。另外本文选取的时间序列数据为15年,跨度相对较短,研究结果可能存在一定的局限性。 限于入境旅游各分解项的难以获取以及文本容量,本文仅从国内旅游收入的角度探讨了中国旅游经济增长差异,今后如可能将进一步完善。如果能将国内旅游收入进一步细化分解,深入分析交通、住宿、餐饮、购物等各项旅游收入的增长与城乡收入差距的关系,得出的结论可能更具体,信息更充分。此外,已有****在探讨旅游发展能否缩小城乡收入差距时提到乡村旅游发展是一种需求驱动的旅游经济增长方式,而城市旅游发展则是一种供给驱动旅游经济增长方式[13],因此乡村旅游经济增长、城市旅游经济增长分别与城乡收入差距之间的关系也值得探讨。总体而言本研究可以从一个层面或一定程度来间接衡量旅游发展对城乡收入差距的影响关系,是限于全国旅游统计体系和数据的一种尝试,今后等到数据完善了可以继续深入用更为直接的方法展开研究。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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