黄成毅1, 2,,,
邓良基3,
方从刚4,
薛超5,
杨连心5,
雷永疆5
1.四川农业大学管理学院 成都 611130
2.四川农业大学水利水电学院 雅安 625014
3.四川农业大学资源学院 成都 611130
4.成都市国土资源信息中心 成都 610041
5.四川农业大学经济学院 成都 611130
基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划项目2017YFD030170402
四川省应用基础研究专项2015JY0059
详细信息
作者简介:田若蘅, 主要从事土地资源利用与生态风险评价研究。E-mail:ruohengtian@163.com
通讯作者:黄成毅, 主要研究方向为土地资源利用与可持续发展。E-mail:chengyihuang@sicau.edu.cn
中图分类号:X820.4计量
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2018-03-12
录用日期:2018-05-31
刊出日期:2018-11-01
Environmental risk assessment and trend simulation of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilization in Sichuan Province, China
TIAN Ruoheng1,,HUANG Chengyi1, 2,,,
DENG Liangji3,
FANG Conggang4,
XUE Chao5,
YANG Lianxin5,
LEI Yongjiang5
1. College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
2. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an 625014, China
3. College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
4. Chengdu Land and Resources Information Center, Chengdu 610041, China
5. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Funds: the National Key Technologies R & D Program of China2017YFD030170402
the Applied Basic Research Program of Sichuan Province2015JY0059
More Information
Corresponding author:HUANG Chengyi, E-mail:chengyihuang@sicau.edu.cn
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摘要
摘要:系统评估农业化肥过量施用对生态环境的潜在风险危害，可为制定下一阶段农业面源污染防治工作提供决策参考。本文基于2000-2015年化肥施用量和耕地面积等数据，采用化肥施用环境风险评价模型，探讨了四川省化肥施用及环境风险的时空变化特征；通过设置延续现状和政策干预两种情景，模拟了四川省2016-2018年执行化肥施用零增长行动期间的化肥施用环境风险变化趋势。结果表明：四川省化肥施用总量在2000-2015年间整体呈增加态势，2015年四川省化肥施用强度为376.63 kg·hm-2，超过了中国生态市建设的化肥施用强度250 kg·hm-2的生态标准。四川省2015年化肥施用的环境总风险指数为0.69，处于中等风险程度；氮、磷、钾肥施用的环境风险指数分别为0.69、0.72和0.46。钾肥施用的环境风险处于安全状态；氮肥和磷肥的环境风险区域集中在成都平原经济区、川南经济区和川东北经济区，呈现中等风险程度并有成片聚集特征。延续现状情景下，四川各地区化肥施用环境总风险指数处于0.48~0.69，存在不同程度增加。与延续现状情景相比，四川在完成化肥施用零增长行动的任务规划前提下，2016-2018年政策干预情景的化肥施用环境总风险呈现下降趋势。以关键时间点2018年来看，川东北经济区化肥施用环境总风险下降最明显，较2015年执行化肥零增长时下降4.24%。但四川省多数地区仍存在不同程度的化肥施用环境污染风险，当地生态环境具有明显压力。建议省级部门加强对成都平原经济区和川东北经济区的化肥面源污染监测，根据各地区差异特征制定不同施肥方案，协调粮食增产和生态保护间的关系。
Abstract:Fertilizer-based pollution has been an important part of agricultural non-point source pollution. Systematic assessment of potential risks and hazards of excessive application of chemical fertilizers to the ecological environment can provide the data base for decision-making of the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution. Sichuan Province is not only a predominant grain production base, but also a region with severe agricultural non-point source pollution in China. Due to excessive long-term fertilizer application, the agro-ecological environment in Sichuan Province has had tremendous pressure. Based on data on fertilizer application, grain sowing and cultivated land area, the spatio-temporal variations in environmental risk due to fertilizer application were evaluated. In the adoption of environmental risk model for fertilizer application in Sichuan Province during 2000-2015, many factors were considered. These included fertilization intensity, environmental safety threshold, fertilization efficiency, multiple cropping index and fertilizer effect on the environment. Using two scenarios (extension and policy intervention), the variation trend in environmental risk associated with fertilizer application under zero-growth chemical fertilizer was simulated for Sichuan for the 2016-2018. The results showed that the total amount of chemical fertilizers in Sichuan Province increased during 2000-2015. The intensity of chemical fertilizer application in Sichuan Province was 376.63 kg·hm-2 in 2015, exceeding the ecological standard set for China's ecological city (250 kg·hm-2). Based on the application structures of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers in 2015, the application of nitrogen fertilizer in Sichuan Province accounted for 57% of the total amount of chemical fertilizers. In Chengdu, Mianyang and Zigong, the proportion of nitrogen fertilizer application was the highest in the whole province. The proportions of phosphate and potash fertilizers were low, accounting respectively for 28% and 15%. This indicated that nitrogen fertilizer still played a dominant role in agricultural production in the region. In 2015, total environmental risk index due to fertilizer use in Sichuan Province was 0.69, which was a medium risk level. Specifically, the environmental risk indexes of nitrogen, phosphate and potash applications were respectively 0.69, 0.72 and 0.46. Only potassium fertilizer application had a safe level of environmental risk. The environmental risk areas of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers were concentrated in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone, Southern Sichuan Economic Zone and Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone. Under the extension scenario, the environmental risk index of fertilizer application in various regions of Sichuan Province was in the range of 0.48-0.69, showing an increasing trend. Compared with the extension scenario, environmental risk due to fertilizer use under the policy intervention scenario declined across 2016-2018. In 2018, the environmental risk index of fertilizer application decreased most significantly in Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone, which was 4.24% lower than that in 2015. However, in most areas of Sichuan Province, there were still different levels of excessive chemical fertilizer application. The risk of environmental pollution caused by chemical fertilizer application had obvious pressure on the local ecological environment. We suggested that monitoring non-point source pollution of fertilizers should be improved in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone. Fertilization plan for each area should take the focus so as to ensure coordination between food production and ecological protection.
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图1化肥施用的环境风险示意图
Figure1.Environmental risk of fertilizer application
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图22000—2015年四川省化肥施用情况
Figure2.Variations of fertilizers application in Sichuan Province during 2000-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图32015年四川省化肥施用环境风险指数的空间分布
Figure3.Spatial distribution of environmental risks of total fertilizers and nitrogen, phosphorus, potash fertilizers application of Sichuan Province in 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图42000—2018年四川省不同地区化肥施用环境风险指数
Figure4.Environmental risk indexes of fertilizer application in different areas of Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2018
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1化肥施用的环境风险指数分类标准
Table1.Classification standards of environmental risk indexes of fertilizer application
| 环境风险程度 Type of environmental risk | 环境风险指数 Range of environmental risk index | 化肥施用强度 Fertilizer application intensity | 特征描述 Characterization |
| 安全 Safety | 0~0.50 | 小于或等于阈值 Less than the threshold | 生态系统状态稳定, 对化肥施用风险、危害有抵抗力, “生产-生活-生态”能够协调发展。 The state of ecosystem is stable. The ecosystem is resistant to the risks and hazards of chemical fertilizer application. Then, the coordinated development of “production-living- ecology” space is coordinated. |
| 低度风险 Low risk | 0.51~0.65 | 不超过阈值的2倍 No more than 2 times of the threshold | 生态系统结构基本完整, 生态恢复功能开始下降, 对化肥施用潜在或已面临的危害有一定抵抗力, “生产-生活-生态”的协调关系基本实现。 The ecosystem structure is basically intact, and the function of ecological restoration has begun to decline. The ecosystem has a certain resistance to the potential or existing hazards of chemical fertilizer application, and the coordination relationship between “production- living-ecology” is basically realized. |
| 中等风险 Medium risk | 0.66~0.75 | 不超过阈值的3倍 No more than 3 times of the threshold | 生态系统结构遭破坏, 化肥过量投入带来的风险和危害超出有效控制范围, 土壤肥力下降和环境污染加剧, “生产-生活-生态”协调发展受到影响。 The structure of ecosystem has been damaged. The risks and hazards brought by excessive input of fertilizer are beyond the effective control range, causing the degradation of cultivated land resources and the aggravation of environmental pollution. The “production- living-ecology” system is affected. |
| 严重风险 Serious risk | 0.76~0.80 | 不超过阈值的4倍 No more than 4 times of the threshold | 生态系统结构破坏程度严重, 化肥过量投入引起的风险、危害较难消除, 土壤肥力下降和环境污染严重, “生产-生活-生态”协调发展受到严重阻碍。 The damage degree of ecosystem structure is serious. The risks and hazards brought by excessive input of fertilizer are difficult to eliminate, causing the degradation of cultivated land resources and serious environmental pollution. The coordinated development of “production-living-ecology” has been seriously hindered. |
| 紧急风险 Extreme risk | 0.81~1.00 | 超过阈值的4倍 Four times greater than the threshold | 生态系统结构明显残缺, 化肥过量投入引起的风险、危害难以消除, 土壤肥力下降和环境污染严重, “生产-生活-生态”协调发展不能实现。 The structure of ecosystem is obviously incomplete. It is difficult to eliminate the risks and hazards caused by excessive input of fertilizers. The degradation of cultivated land resources and environmental pollution are serious. The coordinated development of “production-living-ecology” cannot be realized. |
下载: 导出CSV表2灰色预测精度的后验差检验判别表
Table2.After-test residue checking distinguish list of accuracy about grey prediction
| 方差比 Variance ratio | 小残差概率 Probability of residual error | 预测精度 Accuracy of results |
| > 0.65 | < 0.70 | 不合格Unqualified |
| < 0.65 | > 0.70 | 基本合格Basically qualified |
| < 0.50 | > 0.80 | 合格Qualified |
| < 0.35 | > 0.95 | 优Excellent |
下载: 导出CSV表32015年四川省各市(州)化肥使用强度和耕地复种指数
Table3.Fertilization intensity and multiple cropping index in each city (prefecture) of Sichuan Province in 2015
| 发展区划 Development division | 市(州) City (prefecture) | 施氮强度 Nitrogen intensity (kg·hm-2) | 施磷强度 Phosphorus intensity (kg·hm-2) | 施钾强度 Potassium intensity (kg·hm-2) | 总强度 Chemical fertilizer intensity (kg·hm-2) | 氮磷钾比例 N：P：K | 耕地复种指数 Multiple cropping index |
| 成都平原经济区Chengdu Plain Economic Zone | 成都市Chengdu | 172.38 | 109.99 | 79.15 | 361.77 | 1：0.64：0.46 | 2.13 |
| 德阳市Deyang | 452.40 | 193.85 | 110.60 | 756.85 | 1：0.43：0.24 | 1.84 | |
| 绵阳市Mianyang | 267.72 | 164.32 | 59.79 | 491.83 | 1：0.61：0.22 | 1.49 | |
| 乐山市Leshan | 227.69 | 88.80 | 43.00 | 359.49 | 1：0.39：0.19 | 1.31 | |
| 眉山市Meishan | 301.52 | 148.21 | 159.37 | 609.50 | 1：0.49：0.53 | 1.80 | |
| 资阳市Ziyang | 134.26 | 54.12 | 14.87 | 203.47 | 1：0.40：0.11 | 1.20 | |
| 遂宁市Suining | 305.12 | 147.82 | 76.19 | 529.13 | 1：0.48：0.25 | 1.52 | |
| 雅安市Ya’an | 289.18 | 115.08 | 99.25 | 503.51 | 1：0.40：0.34 | 1.70 | |
| 川南经济区South Sichuan Economic Zone | 自贡市Zigong | 227.22 | 144.09 | 68.81 | 440.59 | 1：0.63：0.30 | 1.44 |
| 泸州市Luzhou | 154.83 | 75.42 | 39.86 | 270.11 | 1：0.49：0.26 | 1.18 | |
| 内江市Neijiang | 314.32 | 121.28 | 29.50 | 464.74 | 1：0.39：0.09 | 1.63 | |
| 宜宾市Yibin | 90.43 | 53.11 | 35.06 | 178.60 | 1：0.59：0.39 | 1.12 | |
| 川东北经济区Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone | 广元市Guangyuan | 186.82 | 88.31 | 46.99 | 322.11 | 1：0.47：0.25 | 1.21 |
| 南充市Nanchong | 243.60 | 127.88 | 47.11 | 418.59 | 1：0.52：0.19 | 1.70 | |
| 广安市Guang’an | 233.88 | 86.99 | 33.36 | 354.23 | 1：0.37：0.14 | 1.59 | |
| 达州市Dazhou | 253.73 | 90.84 | 53.75 | 398.32 | 1：0.36：0.21 | 1.50 | |
| 巴中市Bazhong | 248.12 | 113.85 | 75.04 | 436.70 | 1：0.46：0.30 | 1.39 | |
| 攀西经济区Panxi Economic Zone | 攀枝花市Panzhihua | 192.13 | 97.40 | 97.40 | 386.92 | 1：0.51：0.51 | 0.90 |
| 凉山彝族自治州Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture | 128.67 | 66.66 | 40.31 | 235.64 | 1：0.52：0.31 | 1.19 | |
| 川西北生态经济区Northwest Sichuan Eco-economic Zone | 甘孜藏族自治州Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture | 24.86 | 5.49 | 2.58 | 31.97 | 1：0.22：0.10 | 0.83 |
| 阿坝藏族羌族自治州Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture | 79.59 | 53.33 | 22.29 | 155.21 | 1：0.67：0.28 | 0.97 | |
| 全省Province | 2015年平均值Average in 2015 | 215.64 | 102.23 | 58.78 | 376.63 | 1：0.48：0.27 | 1.37 |
下载: 导出CSV表4延续现状情景下四川省不同区域化肥施用环境风险指数的灰色预测模型
Table4.Grey prediction models of environmental risk index of fertilizer application in extending scenario in different areas of Sichuan Province
| 地区 Area | 预测模型 Predictive model | 平均相对误差 Average relative error (%) | 方差比 Variance ratio | 小残差概率 Probability of residual error |
| 成都平原经济区Chengdu Plain Economic Zone | $x\left( {t + 1} \right) = 166.722{{\rm{e}}^{0.004t}} - 166.082$ | 0.86 | 0.34 | 0.82 |
| 川南经济区South Sichuan Economic Zone | $x(t + 1) = 15.790{{\rm{e}}^{0.021t}} - 15.433$ | 0.74 | 0.35 | 0.83 |
| 川东北经济区Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone | $x\left( {t + 1} \right) = 148.501{{\rm{e}}^{0.004t}} - 147.863$ | 0.49 | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| 攀西经济区Panxi Economic Zone | $x\left( {t + 1} \right) = 105.720{{\rm{e}}^{0.006t}} - 105.141$ | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| 川西北生态经济区Northwest Sichuan Eco-economic Zone | $x\left( {t + 1} \right) = 15.793{{\rm{e}}^{0.050t}} - 15.432$ | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
下载: 导出CSV表5四川省主要作物化肥推荐施用量
Table5.Recommended application rates of chemical fertilizers for major crops in Sichuan Province
| 农作物 Crop | 氮肥推荐用量 Optimal regional N fertilizer rate (kg·hm-2) | 磷肥推荐用量 Optimal regional P fertilizer rate (kg·hm-2) | 钾肥推荐用量 Optimal regional K fertilizer rate (kg·hm-2) | 化肥施用推荐量 Fertilizer application recommendation (kg·hm-2) | 化肥施用生态适宜量 Ecological rate of fertilizer application (kg·hm-2) | 氮磷钾推荐比例 Suitable proportion of N, P and K | 2000—2015年平均播种面积 Average sown area in 2000-2015 (104 hm2) |
| 水稻[27] Rice[27] | 159.0 | 81.0 | 72.5 | 312.5 | 280.7 | 1：0.51：0.46 | 200.48 |
| 玉米[28] Maize[28] | 184.0 | 80.0 | 60.0 | 324.0 | 287.2 | 1：0.44：0.32 | 128.19 |
| 小麦[39] Wheat[39] | 138.0 | 57.5 | 38.0 | 233.5 | 205.9 | 1：0.42：0.28 | 128.09 |
| 油菜[40] Oilseed rape[40] | 113.0 | 47.0 | 90.0 | 250.0 | 227.4 | 1：0.42：0.80 | 88.24 |
| ??化肥施用生态适宜量以化肥施用推荐量扣除20%的氮肥推荐用量计算得出。各作物化肥施用推荐量来自相应的文献。The ecological rate of fertilizer application is equal to the recommended rate minus 20% of the optimal regional rate of nitrogen fertilizer application. The recommended application rates of fertilizers for major crops come from literatures. | |||||||
下载: 导出CSV表6四川省各地区2016年不同情景下的化肥施用环境风险指数结果检验
Table6.Results of environmental risk indexes of fertilizer application under different scenarios in each area of Sichuan Province in 2016
| 地区 Area | 实际值 Actual value | 延续现状情景预测值 Predictive value of extending scenario | 政策干预情景预测值 Predictive value of intervention scenario |
| 成都平原经济区Chengdu Plain Economic Zone | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| 川南经济区South Sichuan Economic Zone | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| 川东北经济区Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| 攀西经济区Panxi Economic Zone | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| 川西北生态经济区Northwest Sichuan Eco-economic Zone | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| ??2016年环境风险指数实际值的计算中, 氮、磷、钾肥的利用率年均增长速度参照政策干预情景设定值。In 2016, the annual average growth rate of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium utilization rate was calculated according to the setting value of fertilizer utilization rate in intervention scenario. | |||
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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