李云鹏,,
李丹,
闫伟兄,
吴向东
内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050
基金项目: 内蒙古旱地作物脆弱性评价标准的建立及示范应用GYHY201506016
详细信息
作者简介:金林雪, 主要从事农业气象方面的研究。E-mail:jinlinxue324@126.com
通讯作者:李云鹏, 主要从事卫星遥感与农业气象应用的研究。E-mail:lyp5230@163.com
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出版历程
收稿日期:2017-05-09
录用日期:2017-05-24
刊出日期:2018-01-01
Suitability analysis of key potato growth stages in Inner Mongolia under climate change
JIN Linxue,LI Yunpeng,,
LI Dan,
YAN Weixiong,
WU Xiangdong
Center of Ecology and Agricultural Meteorology of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010050, China
Funds: the Establishment and Application of Evaluation Criteria for Vulnerability of Dryland Crops in Inner MongoliaGYHY201506016
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Corresponding author:Li Yunpeng,E-mail:lyp5230@163.com
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摘要
摘要:内蒙古是我国马铃薯主产区之一，在气候变化背景下探讨马铃薯的区域适应性有重要的现实意义。依据内蒙古地区119个站点逐日气象观测数据，采用气候适宜度评估模型，分1961-1990年、1991-2015年2个气候年代对内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期气候适宜度的空间特征及变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：1）1961-2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期综合气候适宜度为0.62，气候条件总体优越，且日照适宜度>温度适宜度>降水适宜度。2）从空间分布上看，温度适宜度由西向东呈"低-高-中"的带状分布，降水适宜度由西向东、由北向南递增，日照适宜度西高东低；综合光温水三要素影响，阴山南北麓东段及大兴安岭南麓区为气候适宜度的高值区，具有适宜生产马铃薯的气候资源优势。3）从年代变化上看，1961-1990年，综合气候适宜度除东部偏北及西部偏北呈微弱的下降，总体呈增加的趋势；1991-2015年大部地区综合适宜度由上升转为下降趋势。4）气候变化背景下，1961-2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期气候适宜性以0.004 0·（10a）-1的倾向率下降，其中日照适宜度基本持平，降水适宜度、气温适宜度呈不同程度的下降趋势，对马铃薯生长发育不利。因此，马铃薯开花-可收期应注意水热条件的管理，研究结果可为马铃薯气候资源利用与管理提供参考。
关键词:气候变化/
内蒙古/
马铃薯/
开花-可收期/
气候适宜性/
温度适宜度/
日照适宜度/
降水适宜度
Abstract:Inner Mongolia is the main potato planting area in China. It is therefore of practical importance to explore regional suitability of potato in Inner Mongolia under climate change. Based on the climatic suitability model, this paper analyzed the space-time characteristics of climate suitability for potato cultivation in Inner Mongolia using daily meteorological data (average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure) from 119 weather stations during the period 1961-2015. This period was divided into two sub-periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2015) to calculate the suitability of climate for potato critical growth period (from flowering to harvesting) and to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of potato climate suitability. The results showed that average climate suitability index of potato growth from flowering to harvesting in 1961-2015 was 0.62, confirming that climatic conditions were suitable for growing potato in Inner Mongolia. The suitability index of sunshine hours was highest and that of precipitation lowest. This further illuminated that light and heat conditions in the region were better than water condition, and water was the main limiting factor of potato cultivation in Inner Mongolia. For the spatial distribution, the trend in temperature suitability tracked a low-high-medium curve from west to east. The suitability of precipitation was better in the southeast than in the northwest. Also the suitability of sunshine hours was high in the west and low in the east. For the comprehensive suitability of climate based on the above three factors, high-value areas were distributed in the east of Yin Mountain and the south of Daxing'anling Mountain regions, while the low-value areas were in the west of Inner Mongolia. Then for the time scale, the paper analyzed the annual changes in climatic suitability. Most of the area showed an uptrend in climate suitability for 1961-1990, except the north-east and north-west of Inner Mongolia. However, there was a significant decline in climate suitability in most of Inner Mongolia during 1991-2015. For the investigated 55 years (1961-2015), there were different climatic trends/indexes in the growth period form flowering to harvesting of potato in different regions, driven by climate change in Inner Mongolia. The comprehensive climatic suitability increased little in the southeast of Yin Mountain, northwest of Yin Mountain, the Hetao Irrigation District and the Alxa League, while other regions showed a decreasing trend. In general, there was a decreasing trend in climate suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia, which occurred at an average rate of 0.004 0·(10a)-1. The suitability of temperature and precipitation declined, while sunshine hour suitability basically flattened, which was not good for potato growth in the region. Therefore, there was the need to strengthen moisture and temperature managements during the period from flowering to harvesting of potato. The results of the study reflected the overall condition for the cultivation of potato in Inner Mongolia and also provided the necessary references for the efficient utilization of climatic factors.
Key words:Climate change/
Inner Mongolia/
Potato/
Flowering to harvesting/
Climatic suitability/
Temperature suitability/
Sunshine hour suitability/
Precipitation suitability
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图1研究区域及气象站点分布
Figure1.Study area and the distribution of meteorological stations of Inner Mongolia
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21961—2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期气温适宜度(a)、降水适宜度(b)、日照适宜度(c)和综合气候适宜度(d)的空间分布图
Figure2.Spatial distributions of temperature suitability (a), precipitation suitability (b), sunshine suitability (c) and comprehensive climate suitability (d) for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图3内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期温度适宜度气候倾向率变化
(a: 1961—1990年; b: 1991—2015年)
Figure3.Climatic trends of temperature suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia
(a: from 1961 to 1990; b: from 1991 to 2015)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图4内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期降水适宜度气候倾向率变化
(a: 1961—1990年; b: 1991—2015年)
Figure4.Climatic trends of precipitation suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia
(a: from 1961 to 1990; b: from 1991 to 2015)
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图5内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期日照适宜度气候倾向率变化
(a: 1961—1990年; b: 1991—2015年)
Figure5.Climatic trends of sunshine suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia
(a: from 1961 to 1990; b: from 1991 to 2015)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图6内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期综合适宜度气候倾向率变化
(a: 1961—1990年; b: 1991—2015年)
Figure6.Climatic trends of climate suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia
(a: from 1961 to 1990; b: from 1991 to 2015)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图7内蒙古地区马铃薯开花—可收期气候适宜度年际变化
Figure7.Inter-annual variability of climate suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图81961—2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花—可收期气温适宜度(a)、降水适宜度(b)、日照适宜度(c)和综合气候适宜度(d)的变化特征图
Figure8.Climatic trends of climate suitability of temperature suitability (a), precipitation suitability (b), sunshine suitability (c) and comprehensive climate suitability (d) for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1内蒙古地区119站及其对应的马铃薯开花—可收期时间
Table1.Areas of 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia and their corresponding periods from flowering to harvesting of potato
| 区域 Area | 气象站 Meteorological station | 开花期 Flowering | 可收期 Harvesting |
| 包头 Baotou City | 满都拉、白云、达茂、固阳、昭和、包头市、土右?Mandula, Baiyun, Damao, Guyang, Zhaohe, Baotou, Right Tumete Banner | 8月上旬 Early August | 9月下旬 Late September |
| 呼和浩特 Hohhot City | 和林、清水河、托克托Helingeer, Qingshuihe, Togtoh | 7月下旬 Late July | 9月中旬 Middle September |
| 武川、土左、呼市郊区和玉泉区?Wuchuan, Tumd Left Banner, Hohhot suburbs, Yuquan | 7月中旬 Middle July | 9月上旬 Early September | |
| 阿拉善盟 Alxa League | 额济纳旗、拐子湖、巴音诺尔公、中泉子、阿右旗、头道湖、吉兰太、孪井滩、阿左旗?Ejina Banner, Guaizihu, Bayinnuo’ergong, Zhongquanzi, Alxa Right Banner, Toudaohu, Jilantai, Luanjingtan, Alxa Left Banner | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月下旬 Late September |
| 巴彦淖尔 Bayannur City | 海力素、乌拉特后旗、乌拉特中旗、五原、大佘太、磴口、杭锦后旗、乌拉特前旗、临河区?Hailisu, Uradhou Banner, Uradzhong Banner, Wuyuan, Dashetai, Dengkou, Hanggin Rear Banner, Uradqian Banner, Linhe | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月下旬 Late September |
| 鄂尔多斯 Ordos City | 达拉特旗、伊克乌素、鄂托克旗、杭锦旗、东胜区、伊金霍洛、乌审召、准格尔旗、乌审旗、鄂托克前旗、河南?Dalad Banner, Yikewusu, Otog Banner, Hanggin Banner, Dongsheng, Ejin Horo, Uxin Ju, Jungar Banner, Uxin Banner, Otogqian Banner, Henan | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月下旬 Late September |
| 乌海 Wuhai City | 乌海?Wuhai | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月下旬 Late September |
| 乌兰察布 Ulanqab City | 商都、化德、察右后旗、兴和、察右前旗、丰镇?Shangdu, Huade, Chayouhou Banner, Xinghe, Chayouqian Banner, Fengzhen | 7月中旬 Middle July | 9月中旬 Middle September |
| 察右中旗、四子王、集宁、卓资、凉城?Chayouzhong Banner, Siziwang, Tsining, Zhuozi, Liangcheng | 7月下旬 Late July | 9月上旬 Early September | |
| 锡林郭勒 Xilingol League | 乌拉盖、东乌旗、二连、那仁宝力格、阿巴嘎、苏左旗、苏右旗、朱日和、镶黄旗、西乌旗、锡林浩特、正白旗、正兰旗、多伦县、太仆寺?Wulagai, Dong Ujimqin Banner, Erenhot, Naranbulag Banner, Abag Banner, Sonid Left Banner, Sonid Right Banner, Zhurihe, Xianghuang Banner, Xi Ujimqin Banner, Xilinhot, Plain White Banner, Plain Blue Banner, Duolun, Taipusi | 7月中旬 Middle July | 9月上旬 Early September |
| 赤峰 Chifeng City | 浩尔吐、巴林左旗、巴林右旗、林西、克什克腾旗、阿鲁科尔沁、翁牛特、岗子、赤峰市、敖汉旗、宝国图、喀喇沁旗、八里罕、宁城?Hao’ertu, Bairin Left Banner, Bairin Right Banner, Linxi, Hexigten Banner, Aluke’erqin, Ongniud, Gangzi, Chifeng, Aohan Banner, Baoguotu, Harqin Banner, Balihan, Ningcheng | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月中旬 Middle September |
| 通辽Tongliao City | 霍林郭勒、巴雅尔吐胡、扎鲁特旗、舍伯吐、科左中旗、青龙山、开鲁县、通辽市、奈曼旗、科左后旗、库伦旗?Huolinguole, Bayar Tuhu, Jarud Banner, Shebotu, Horqin Left Wing Middle Banner, Qinglongshan, Kailu, Tongliao, Naiman Banner, Horqin Left Wing Rear Banner, Hure Banner | 6月下旬 Late June | 8月下旬 Late August |
| 兴安盟Hinggan League | 阿尔山、胡尔勒、扎赉特旗、索伦、乌兰浩特、突泉、科右中旗、高力板?Arxan, Hu’erle, Jalaid Banner, Sauren, Ulanhot, Tuquan, Horqin Right Wing Middle Banner, Gaoliban | 7月上旬 Early July | 9月中旬 Middle September |
| 呼伦贝尔 Hulun Buir City | 根河、图里河、鄂伦春、满洲里、陈旗、鄂温克、牙克石、海拉尔、小二沟、新右旗、新左旗、博克图、扎兰屯、莫力达瓦、阿荣旗?Genhe, Tulihe, Oroqen, Manzhouli, Chenqi, Ewenki, Yakeshi, Hailar, Xiao’ergou, Xin Barag Right Banner, Xin Barag Left Banner, Bugt, Zhalantun, Morin Dawa, Arun Banner | 7月中旬 Middle July | 9月中旬 Middle September |
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