The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China
LI E,1, ZHAO Jin,1, YE Qing2, GAO JiQing1, YANG XiaoGuang11College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193 2College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045
Abstract 【Objective】Under the background of climate change, this study focused on the changing precipitation and its possible influence on yield in the sensitive areas with adjusting spring maize maturity cultivars in the three provinces in Northeastern China, which could provide a scientific reference for the local cultivars’ adjustment of spring maize. 【Method】 Taking 1985 as the time node, the period of 1961-2017 was split into two sub-periods (1961-1985 and 1986-2017) in this study. Based on the observed meteorological data in 24 meteorological stations and observed maize growth stages in 16 agrometeorological experimental stations in the sensitive area, the changing characteristics of water conditions in the maize growth stages was analyzed, and the influence of precipitation on the climatic potential yield was adjusted by the ‘correction step by step’ method. 【Result】(1)During 1961-2017, the actual sowing dates in the sensitive area showed an advanced trend, while the maturity dates showed a delayed trend, which indicated the adjustment of maturity cultivars in the actual practice and the actual growth stage was prolonged. (2)The adjustment of maturity cultivars in sensitive areas increased the water demand in the early (sowing to jointing) and late (flowering to maturity) stages, but decreased the water demand in the middle (jointing to flowering) stage. Meanwhile, the effective precipitation in the early stage showed an increasing trend, while a decreasing trend was found in the middle and late stages. (3)After the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the satisfaction rate of effective precipitation in the middle stage was the lowest. (4)With the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the climatic potential yield showed a decreasing trend in Kuandian and Tongyu stations in the south and west of area 5, where those middle-late-maturing cultivars were adjusted into late-maturing ones. However, the climatic potential yield showed an increasing trend and decreased in the north of area 1 where especial-early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into early-maturing cultivars, and area 3 where early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into middle-maturing cultivars. 【Conclusion】 Under the background of climate change, the effective precipitation satisfaction rate, K value in sensitive areas of Northeast China decreased in the middle and late growth stages, and the climatic potential yield decreased in the west and south of the study area, while increased in the east with high instability. Therefore, in the eastern, western, and southern parts of sensitive areas, more attention should be paid to the selection of mature cultivars of spring maize, and irrigation should be carried out in time in the middle and late growth stages of spring maize. Keywords:three provinces of Northeastern China;sensitive area;spring maize;production potential
PDF (2289KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 李娥, 赵锦, 叶清, 高继卿, 杨晓光. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响ⅩⅢ. 东北三省春玉米熟型调整的降水限制及其对产量的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.005 LI E, ZHAO Jin, YE Qing, GAO JiQing, YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China. Scientia Acricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.005
Fig. 5Distribution characteristics of effective precipitation satisfaction rate K in different growth stages of sensitive areas from 1961 to 2017 (a. Effective precipitation satisfaction rate in period i; b. the satisfaction rate of effective precipitation in period ii; c. comparison of effective precipitation satisfaction rate in k period; 1. Early stage; 2. Middle stage; 3. Late stage)
Fig. 6Distribution of average value (a, b), variation trend (c), range of increases and decreases (d), coefficient of variation (e) of climatic production potential of spring maize in different periods in the study area and climatic potential yield and the changing of effective precipitation satisfaction rate during growth stages (f)
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