摘要:面向流域治理与区域可持续发展, 提出一种耦合共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型的流域生态系统服务综合评估框架, 以汉江流域为例, 开展不同社会发展情景下的未来土地利用模拟, 利用InVEST模型评估土地利用变化的水生态系统服务效应, 揭示流域水源涵养与水质净化服务对社会发展决策的响应及时空演变规律。研究结果表明: 1)2035年各SSPs情景下汉江流域的产水深度较2015年均大幅提高, 产水深度增加的地区多集中于汉江流域东南、中部及西部部分建设用地增加的区域; 2)由于人类活动频繁, 城市快速扩张, SSPs情景下产水深度增加的地区多集中于汉江流域东南、中部及西部部分建设用地增加的区域; 3) 2035年各SSPs情景下的流域氮磷元素负荷量较2015年均有所减少, 部分氮磷元素负荷量增加的地区主要集中于流域东南及西部; 4)汉江流域的社会经济活动以及农业活动是造成水环境污染的主要原因。研究结果可服务于汉江流域国土空间规划编制及可持续的水资源资产管理工作, 支撑汉江生态经济带建设, 推动长江流域水生态环境改善。
关键词:共享社会经济路径/
生态系统服务功能/
土地利用类型; InVEST模型/
水源涵养/
水质净化/
汉江流域
Abstract:A comprehensive assessment framework for watershed ecosystem services and trade-offs was proposed for watershed governance and regional sustainable development in this paper. The framework integrated both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and future land use simulation (FLUS) models. The socioeconomic data of China’s provincial SSPs considering domestic development and regional differences were introduced to the FLUS model, meeting the needs of regional level land-use simulation scenarios and fully considering the interaction between human socio-economic activities and the natural environment. Taking the Hanjiang River Basin as an example, the FLUS models under different SSPs scenarios were built to evaluate the ecological and environmental effects on land-use change. We further investigated the response of water conservation and water quality purification services to social development decision-making and spatiotemporal evolution by using InVEST model. Results showed that: 1) the water production depth in 2035 under all the SSP scenarios was significantly higher than that in 2015. The increment under the SSP1 and SSP2 scenarios was relatively small, and the increment under the SSP3 scenario was relatively higher with the most intense change. The areas with increased water production depth were mainly concentrated in the southeast, central, and western regions of the Hanjiang River Basin. 2) From 2015 to 2035, due to frequent human activities and rapid urban expansion, in areas where the water production depth increased, urbanized land also increased significantly. According to the land-use simulation and water production depth change results, urbanized land had a strong water production capacity due to low vegetation coverage, weak evapotranspiration, and low permeability of hardened ground. 3) The nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the SSPs scenarios in 2035 were lower than those in 2015. The reduction under the SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios was relatively large, and the SSP3 scenario was the same as that in 2015, but the change was the most intense. The areas with increased nitrogen and phosphorus loads were mainly concentrated in the southeast and western regions. 4) According to the results of land-use simulation and nitrogen and phosphorus load change, the urbanized land had more pollutants due to the frequent human socio-economic activities, while the cropland was due to the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in the process of agricultural production, making part of the nitrogen and phosphorus elements not absorbed by crops. The two types of land-use caused serious pollution in the water environment of the basin. The future development planning of the Hanjiang River Basin can be based on the SSP1 scenario, referring to the economic and technological development model under the SSP5 scenario, combined with the basin functional district, optimizing the land-use structure, and ensuring the water ecological environment security of the basin while paying attention to economic development. The results of this study can be used to prepare territorial spatial planning and sustainable water resource asset management in the Hanjiang River Basin, support the construction of the Hanjiang River eco-economic belt, and promote the improvement of the water ecological environment in the Yangtze River Basin.
Key words:Shared socioeconomic pathways/
Ecosystem service function/
Land use type; InVEST model/
Water conservation/
Water improvement/
Hanjiang Basin
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