摘要:探明江苏省农牧系统磷素流动特征及其影响因素，可为农牧生产体系可持续发展提供理论依据。通过文献调研、数据分析等方式，结合NUFER（NUtrient flows in Food chains，Environment and Resources use）模型，定量分析了江苏省1998—2018年间农牧生产体系的磷素流动特征，明确了农牧系统磷元素流动影响因素。结果表明：1998—2018年，江苏省农牧系统磷素输入总量由423.19 Gg下降至382.86 Gg，主要减少的输入项为化肥和外源饲料，其中单位耕地面积化肥磷素投入量由78.78 kg·hm-2降至67.27 kg·hm-2，外源饲料磷供应量由58.07 Gg降至46.54 Gg；农牧系统输出项中，磷素输出总量由194.24 Gg增至255.06 Gg，主要输出项为作物主产品和动物副产品，其中作物主产品磷素携出量增幅较大，由77.53 Gg增至131.86 Gg；农田生产子系统的磷素利用率由31.82%上升至52.46%，畜牧生产子系统的磷素利用率变化较小，维持在27.67%~35.31%。农牧系统磷素利用率趋势与农田生产子系统的利用率趋势较为一致，由16.55%上升至32.24%；单位农牧产品磷素损失呈下降趋势，由0.26 kg（P）·kg-1下降至0.12 kg（P）·kg-1。1998—2018年间，江苏省农牧业发展迅速，磷素总输入量逐年下降，农牧产品产量逐年上升，磷素环境总损失量（径流、侵蚀、淋溶和粪尿损失）逐年下降。受化肥投入量减少、测土配方、种植及养殖结构调整等因素影响，农牧系统磷素利用率略高于全国平均水平，养分管理取得初步成效，但仍有一定的进步空间。为促进江苏省农牧业可持续发展，应进一步控制磷肥输入、加大有机肥和本地饲料输入量、提高秸秆和畜禽粪便综合利用率、调整种植结构和养殖布局，发展小麦、玉米、水蜜桃、草莓种植业，限制蛋鸭养殖业。
关键词:磷素/
江苏省/
农牧系统/
NUFER模型
Abstract:To provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of the crop-livestock production system in Jiangsu Province, this study explored phosphorus flow and its influencing factors. Literatures research, data analyses, combined with the NUFER model (NUtrient flow in the Food chain, Environment, and the Resource use) were used to quantitatively analyze phosphorus flow and its influencing factors in the crop-livestock production system of Jiangsu Province from 1998 to 2018. The total phosphorus inputs of the crop-livestock production system from 1998 to 2018 decreased from 423.19 Gg to 382.86 Gg, and the main reduced inputs were chemical fertilizer and exogenous feed. The fertilizer input per unit cultivated area decreased from 78.78 kg·hm-2 to 67.27 kg·hm-2, and the supply of exogenous feed phosphorus decreased from 58.07 Gg to 46.54 Gg. The total output of phosphorus increased from 194.24 Gg to 255.06 Gg. The dominant output items were main crop products and animal by-products; the main crop products increased from 77.53 Gg to 131.86 Gg. The phosphorus utilization rate of the agricultural production subsystem increased from 31.82% to 52.46%, and the livestock production subsystem remained between 27.67% and 35.31%. The results showed that the phosphorus utilization rate of the crop-livestock production system was consistent with that of the agricultural production subsystem, which increased from 16.55% to 32.24%; phosphorus loss per unit of crop-livestock products decreased from 0.26 kg(P)·kg-1 to 0.12 kg(P)·kg-1. From 1998 to 2018, crop-livestock husbandry in Jiangsu Province developed rapidly, the total phosphorus input decreased annually, the output of crop-livestock products increased annually, and the total phosphorus loss to the environment (runoff, erosion, leaching, and manure loss) decreased annually. Reductions in chemical fertilizer input, fertilization based on soil testing formula, and planting and breeding structure adjustments led to a slightly higher utilization rate of phosphorus in the crop-livestock production system compared to the national level. Thus, nutrient management had achieved preliminary results, but there was still some room for improvement. To promote the sustainable development of crop-livestock husbandry in Jiangsu Province, it is necessary to further control phosphate fertilizer input, increase the input of organic fertilizer and local feed, improve the comprehensive utilization rate of straw and livestock manure, adjust the planting structure and breeding layout, develop planting, and restrict breeding.
Key words:Phosphorus/
Jiangsu Province/
Crop-livestock production system/
NUFER model
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