摘要:为响应长江经济带"大保护"的战略号召和完成国家赋予长江经济带各省市的重大历史任务，长江经济带正在推进农业产业结构调整、优化投入产出比例，保障稳定可持续的农业生产。本文基于三阶段DEA模型和聚类分析相结合的方法，以2008-2018年的长江经济带为例，测算其农业生产效率并分析时空特征。研究表明，外生环境因素对长江经济带农业生产效率的影响显著，存在明显的时空差异。其中：1）剔除环境因素后，长江经济带农业生产效率整体向好，四川省和江苏省处于效率前沿面，上海市的农业生产效率值出现明显下降；2）长江经济带农业生产效率逐年波动发展，长江中游地区相对上游和下游地区的农业生产效率更具优势，个别省份的农业生产效率水平与其经济社会发展程度不匹配；3）劳动力、土地、灌溉等投入要素的增加均会引起农业生产效率的增加，财政投入力度及人均GDP与农业生产效率之间不存在明显的正向相关关系，受灾面积对农业生产效率有显著负面影响。
关键词:农业生产效率/
三阶段DEA/
时空特征/
长江经济带
Abstract:In response to the strategic call for the "Great Protection" of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and to fulfill the important historical tasks assigned by the state to the provinces and cities of the area, the Yangtze River Economic Belt is adjusting the agricultural industry structure, optimizing the input-output ratio, and ensuring stable and sustainable agricultural production. Based on the combination of the three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and cluster analysis, this study examined the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018 to measure its agricultural production efficiency and to analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics. Studies shown that exogenous environmental factors significantly (P < 5%) impact agricultural production efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, and there were temporal and spatial differences. These include: 1) after excluding environmental factors, the overall agricultural production efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Zone had improved. Sichuan and Jiangsu Provinces were at the forefront of efficiency, whereas the agricultural production efficiency of Shanghai had obviously declined. 2) The agricultural production efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt varied year by year, with fluctuating development. The middle reaches of the Yangtze River had advanced agricultural production efficiency more than the upstream and downstream regions, and the agricultural production efficiency of the individual provinces did not match their economic and social development. 3) Increases in labor, land, irrigation, and other input factors increased agriculture production efficiency, there was no correlation between fiscal investment per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural production efficiency. The disaster-affected area had a significant negative impact on agricultural production efficiency.
Key words:Agricultural production efficiency/
Three-stage Date Envelopment Analysis/
Temporal and spatial characteristics/
Yangtze River Economic Belt
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