摘要:为探究不同降水年型下温度升高对黄土丘陵区旱地春小麦产量的影响效应，本研究以甘肃省定西市安定区1979-2018年历史气象数据为基础，运用APSIM模型对不同降水年型下日最高、最低温度在0~2℃范围内耦合变化时旱地春小麦的产量进行模拟，并采用二次多项式回归、单因素分析和通径分析研究了不同降水年型下温度升高对旱地春小麦产量的影响机制。结果表明：在试验设计范围内，不同降水年型下旱地春小麦产量与日最低温度、日最高温度呈开口向上的二次抛物线变化且无阈值出现。日最高温度不变、日最低温度升高对产量呈正效应，其增产效果表现为干旱年>平水年>湿润年，日最低温度每增加0.5℃，最大增产幅度为3.99%；日最低温度不变、日最高温度升高对产量呈负效应，其减产效果表现为干旱年>湿润年>平水年，日最高温度每增加0.5℃，最大减产幅度为9.18%。不同降水年型下温度升高导致了旱地春小麦减产，日最高、最低温度升高对产量存在负交互关系，日最高温度升高带来的减产效应远大于日最低温度升高带来的增产效应。
关键词:APSIM/
旱地春小麦/
产量/
降水年型/
温度
Abstract:Climate change significantly affects crop production. To explore the effects of temperature increase on dryland spring wheat yield in different precipitation years in the hilly regions of the Loess Plateau, this study incorporated the meteorological data of Dingxi City, Gansu Province, from 1979 to 2018. Dryland spring wheat yield was simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model when the daily maximum and minimum temperatures changed in the range of 0-2℃ in different precipitation years. Quadratic polynomial regression, single-factor analysis, and path analysis were used to study the influence mechanisms of temperature increase on dryland spring wheat yield. The results showed that the relationships between dryland spring wheat yield and daily minimum temperature, and between dryland spring wheat yield and daily maximum temperature were quadratic parabolas with an upward opening in different precipitation years, without a threshold value. When the daily maximum temperature was constant, an increase in the daily minimum temperature had a positive effect on the yield. The effect of increasing production was as follows: drought year > normal year > wet year. For every 0.5℃ increase in the daily minimum temperature, the average dryland spring wheat yield increased by 1.32% in wet years, 3.06% in normal years, and 3.99% in drought years. When the daily minimum temperature was constant, an increase in the daily maximum temperature had a negative effect on yield. The effect of production reduction was as follows: drought year > wet year > normal year. For every 0.5℃ increase in the daily maximum temperature, the average dryland spring wheat yield decreased by 9.08% in wet years, 7.98% in normal years, and 9.18% in drought years. The yield thresholds reached 798.61 kg·hm-2 in wet years when the daily maximum temperature increased by 7.1℃, 1118.21 kg·hm-2 in normal years when the daily maximum temperature increased by 3.9℃, and 1026.88 kg·hm-2 in drought years when the daily maximum temperature increased by 3.1℃. Increased temperature led to a decrease in dryland spring wheat yield in different precipitation years. There was a negative interaction between the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature. The effect of reduced production caused by increased daily maximum temperature was much greater than the effect of increased production caused by increased daily minimum temperature.
Key words:Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)/
Dryland spring wheat/
Yield/
Precipitation year/
Temperature
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