摘要:为更好地适应气候变化大背景下作物种植条件变化，对各地区的作物种植条件进行综合评估已迫在眉睫。本研究应用层次分析法，基于天气学、气候学和农业气象学等原理，结合地方生态和经济发展需求，选取气候资源、灾害防御、种植配套条件3大类准则层，并选定包括光照资源、热量资源、水资源、空气质量、气象灾害、病虫害以及土壤条件、地理环境、基础设施、管理制度等相关14类小项指标，设计作物种植条件综合评价体系框架；然后通过统计分析设定14类小项指标评分细则，最终构建作物种植条件综合评价概念模型。并利用所构建的概念模型对内蒙古巴彦淖尔河套灌区主要作物种植条件进行综合评价应用试验。评估结果显示：巴彦淖尔河套灌区光照资源充足、热量资源较稳定、气候适宜度高、灌溉条件优异，春小麦、玉米和向日葵等主要作物关键生长期综合日照保证率、综合积温保证率、综合气温适宜保证率均高达85%以上，水分保证率100%，气温日较差较大，空气质量优良，灌区土壤肥沃；高温、大风、冰雹、暴雨等主要气象灾害及病虫害发生频率低，预报与防御能力较强；自然、地理、人文、政策等各类资源配置优势突出，综合分析评价得出该地区作物种植条件为Ⅰ级优良。综合分析可见，本概念模型选取的指标之间既相互联系又相互独立、具有层次性和结构性，是能定量反映区域气候系统和相关配套条件所构成的有机整体；指标获取便捷、可操作性好，评估结果可靠性良好，可推广于不同地区或不同作物的种植条件综合评价，为实现农业的生态化、可持续性发展保驾护航。
Abstract:In response to climate change and to the progress of social economy, science, and technology, alterations to crop planting conditions in various places are warrant further scientific, technological, and ecological development. In order to adapt and enhance crop planting conditions, as well as to promote the development of market economy, it is an urgent need to conduct a comprehensive assessment of local crop planting conditions. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology was applied, combined with the principles of meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology, to design a framework for assessing the crop planting conditions. Taking into account the needs of local ecological and economic development, the framework was constructed by selecting three major criteria, namely climate resources, disaster prevention, and supporting conditions for cultivation, as well as 14 related sub-indicators, including light resources, heat resources, water resources, air quality, meteorological disasters, plant diseases and insect pests, soil conditions, geographical environment, infrastructure, and management system. Through statistical analysis, the scoring rules for the 14 sub-indicators were set up and the conceptual model for comprehensive evaluation of crop planting conditions was created. To validate the novel assessment model, a comprehensive evaluation experiment was carried out on the main crop planting conditions at the Bayannaoer Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia. The assessment results indicated that Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District had sufficient light resources, stable heat resources, high climate suitability, and excellent irrigation conditions. The guarantee rate of light, cumulative temperature, and temperature suitability for key growing periods for major crops, such as spring wheat, maize, and sunflower, were more than 85%, whereas water guarantee rate was 100%. The temperature diurnal range was larger. The air quality was excellent and the irrigated areas had fertile soil. The frequency of major meteorological disasters such as high temperature, strong wind, hail, and heavy rain and plant diseases and insect pests were low, and the ability of prediction and defense for these disasters were strong. Natural, geographical, and cultural policies and various resources had prominent advantages in allocation. The comprehensive evaluation of crop cultivation conditions in the region was excellent, level Ⅰ. These results demonstrated that the selected indicators used by the conceptual model were interrelated and independent, hierarchical and structural, and could quantitatively reflect the complex setting formed by the regional climate system and relevant supporting conditions. Indexes were easy to obtain and operate, and the evaluation results were reliable. Therefore, the proposed conceptual model may be applied to the comprehensive evaluation of planting conditions in different regions or different crops, so as to guarantee the ecological and sustainable development of agriculture.
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