摘要:本文基于20个统计降尺度的高分辨率全球气候模式模拟数据，以平均气温、≥10℃积温和温度适宜度作为热量资源指数，分析了未来2种典型浓度路径情景下全国不同产区一季稻热量资源的变化特性，以期掌握未来水稻热量资源动态调整水稻生产。结果表明：一季稻主要生长季平均气温、≥10℃积温和温度适宜度地区间差异明显；RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，不同地区平均气温、≥10℃积温呈现不同程度的增加，且RCP8.5情景下的增幅较RCP4.5更为明显。1986—2005年，四川盆地和长江中下游地区一季稻温度适宜度较其他地区高；RCP4.5情景下，东北、宁夏、西南地区南部和东南部温度适宜度呈增大趋势，RCP8.5情景下这种变化趋势更为显著，可见热量资源的变化将利于这些地区一季稻生长；而四川盆地和长江中下游地区温度适宜度呈减小趋势，主要归因于高温日数的显著增加，因而热量资源变化并不利于该两地的一季稻生长。未来不同地区热量资源的变化特征将有助于指导不同地区合理优化水稻生产，趋利避害以应对气候变化。
Abstract:Rice production is affected by current climate change, but future changes are rarely mentioned. A better understanding of the thermal resource dynamics of rice production is important for future optimization. Changes in the spatial-temporal dynamics of the thermal resources for future single-season rice was analyzed under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using the mean air temperature, accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, and temperature suitability as indices. The analysis was based on daily reproduction data from 20 global climate models at a high resolution of 0.25°×0.25°, which was downscaled by Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation. The results indicated that the mean air temperature, accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, and temperature suitability differed spatially. During the baseline period from 1986-2005, a higher mean air temperature and accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ were detected in the Sichuan Basin, as well as in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Relative to the baseline, the mean air temperature and accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ during the future periods (i.e., 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increased by varying magnitudes in different regions (increment magnitudes under RCP8.5 were larger than RCP4.5). Increasing mean air temperature and accumulated temperature suggest that more thermal resources will be available for rice in the future, making it appropriate to replace the early-mid rice variety with the mid-late variety. However, increasing temperature is not always beneficial to rice growing. Temperature suitability based on the temperature requirements were implemented for different rice-growing periods. During the baseline years, the temperature suitability was greater than 0.95 in the Sichuan Basin, as well as in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which was higher than the other regions (i.e., Northeast China, Ningxia, and the southern and southeastern regions of Southwest China). No obvious (or negative) temperature suitability trends were observed in the Sichuan Basin or the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but positive trends were observed in other regions. Under future period predictions, there was a decreasing temperature suitability trend in the Sichuan Basin and in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with a tendency of -0.03 - 0·(10a)-1 and -0.11- -0.03· (10a)-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This was attributed to more days in the future with maximum temperatures greater than 35 ℃ and implies that a significant increase in heat stress would threaten rice growing. Comparatively, temperature suitability in Northeast China, Ningxia, the southern and southeastern regions of Southwest China increased at a rate of 0.00-0.03·(10a)-1 under RCP4.5, which was smaller than under RCP8.5. This, combined with increasing mean air temperature and accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, would benefit rice growing in these regions. Understanding the thermal characteristics can help to optimize rice production among regions in response to climate change.
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