|
|
房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应:来自二手房交易实验的证据 |
张红1,2( ),孙煦1,2,张洋3 |
2. 清华大学 城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京 100084 3. 北京林业大学 经济管理学院,物业管理系,北京100083 |
|
Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection: Evidence from resale housing trading experiments |
Hong ZHANG1,2( ),Xu SUN1,2,Yang ZHANG3 |
1. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China 2. Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 3. Department of Property Management, School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China |
|
摘要该文研究房价上涨预期对二手房市场逆向选择现象的影响。首先,从理论角度提出房价上涨预期指标与逆向选择程度的测算公式。之后,基于现实二手房市场交易特点设计和实施经济学实验,通过实验模拟不同房价上涨预期条件下的二手房交易过程,并收集数据。最后,基于实验数据对房价上涨预期指标与市场逆向选择程度进行测算,并检验房价上涨预期对市场逆向选择的影响。研究表明: 严重的信息不对称是二手房市场产生逆向选择现象的主要诱因; 当前市场上交易人的房价上涨预期在一定程度上暂时抑制了逆向选择现象的发生。预防和解决二手房市场逆向选择现象的根本途径是降低信息不对称程度。
|
关键词 :二手房市场,房价上涨预期,逆向选择,实验经济学 |
Abstract:This article focuses on the inhibitory effect exerted by house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection in resale housing markets. Firstly, theoretical methods are developed for the bullish sentiment index (BSI) and the adverse selection level (ASL). Economics experiments were then designed to study the resale housing market characteristics in different bullish sentiment environments. The BSI and ASL were calculated from the experimental data to study the effect of bullish sentiment on the adverse selection. The research shows that severe information asymmetry is the main cause of adverse selection in the resale housing market. The bullish sentiment of traders in the market temporarily restrains the adverse selection to some extent. The degree of information asymmetry should be reduced to minimize the adverse selection problem in the resale housing market.
|
Key words:resale housing markethouse price bullish sentimentadverse selectionexperimental economics |
收稿日期: 2014-01-21 出版日期: 2015-05-15 |
基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143) |
[1] | Akerlof G A. The market for “lemons”: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism.[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1970, 84(3), 488-500. |
[2] | 李建华, 郭晓玲. 信息不对称与房地产市场效率[J]. 经济与管理, 2003(2): 59-60. LI Jianhua, GUO Xiaoling. Information asymmetric and real estate market efficiency[J]. Economy and Management, 2003(2): 59-60.(in Chinese) |
[3] | 北京市住房与城乡建设委员会. 北京市房地产年鉴2013 [M]. 北京: 中国质检出版社, 2013. Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development. Beijing Real Estate Yearbook 2013 [M]. Beijing: China Zhijian Publishing House, 2013. (in Chinese) |
[4] | 刘海燕, 何玉付. 房地产宏观调控政策要充分考虑其投资品性质[J]. 改革与战略, 2009(3): 138-140. LIU Haiyan, HE Yufu. The nature of investment should be taken full account in making macro-control policies for real estate[J]. Revolution and Strategy, 2009(3): 138-140.(in Chinese) |
[5] | Heal G. Do bad products drive out good?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1976, 90(3) 499-502. |
[6] | Bond E W. A direct test of the “lemons” model: The market for used pickup trucks[J]. The American Economic Review, 1982, 72(4): 836-840. |
[7] | Hendel I, Lizzeri A. Adverse selection in durable goods markets[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997, 89(5) 1097-1115. |
[8] | Levin J. Information and the market for lemons[J]. The RAND Journal of Economics, 2001, 32(4): 657-666. |
[9] | ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Yang. Incorporation of experimental methods into teaching real estate economics: Process, practice and development[J]. The New Educational Review, 2012, 29(3): 121-133. |
[10] | 张红, 张洋. 买方需求信息传递对住房搜寻影响的实验研究[J]. 湖南大学学报:自然科学版, 2013, 39(7): 99-103. ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Yang. Effects of buyer demand information transmission on housing search: An experimental study.[J]. Journal of Hunan University: Science and Technology, 2013, 39(7): 99-103.(in Chinese) |
[11] | 张红, 张洋, 李瑞. 基于实验方法的信息披露对二手房价格的影响[J]. 合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版, 2013, 38(5): 621-624. ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Yang, LI Rui. Effect of information disclosure on resale housing trading price based on experimental method.[J]. Journal of Hefei University of Technology: Science and Technology, 2013, 38(5): 621-624.(in Chinese) |
[12] | 张红, 张洋. 二手房价格信息传递仿真[J]. 计算机仿真, 2013(11): 214-217, 259. ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Yang. Simulation of resale housing price information transmission.[J]. Computer Simulation, 2013(11): 214-217, 259.(in Chinese) |