房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应:来自二手房交易实验的证据

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清华大学辅仁网/2017-07-07

张红^1,²(

),孙煦^1,²,张洋³

2. 清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京 100084
3. 北京林业大学经济管理学院,物业管理系,北京100083

Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection: Evidence from resale housing trading experiments

Hong ZHANG^1,²(

),Xu SUN^1,²,Yang ZHANG³

1. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China
2. Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3. Department of Property Management, School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

摘要:

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摘要该文研究房价上涨预期对二手房市场逆向选择现象的影响。首先,从理论角度提出房价上涨预期指标与逆向选择程度的测算公式。之后,基于现实二手房市场交易特点设计和实施经济学实验,通过实验模拟不同房价上涨预期条件下的二手房交易过程,并收集数据。最后,基于实验数据对房价上涨预期指标与市场逆向选择程度进行测算,并检验房价上涨预期对市场逆向选择的影响。研究表明: 严重的信息不对称是二手房市场产生逆向选择现象的主要诱因; 当前市场上交易人的房价上涨预期在一定程度上暂时抑制了逆向选择现象的发生。预防和解决二手房市场逆向选择现象的根本途径是降低信息不对称程度。

关键词 ：二手房市场,房价上涨预期,逆向选择,实验经济学

Abstract：This article focuses on the inhibitory effect exerted by house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection in resale housing markets. Firstly, theoretical methods are developed for the bullish sentiment index (BSI) and the adverse selection level (ASL). Economics experiments were then designed to study the resale housing market characteristics in different bullish sentiment environments. The BSI and ASL were calculated from the experimental data to study the effect of bullish sentiment on the adverse selection. The research shows that severe information asymmetry is the main cause of adverse selection in the resale housing market. The bullish sentiment of traders in the market temporarily restrains the adverse selection to some extent. The degree of information asymmetry should be reduced to minimize the adverse selection problem in the resale housing market.

Key words：resale housing market house price bullish sentiment adverse selection experimental economics

收稿日期: 2014-01-21 出版日期: 2015-05-15

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143)

引用本文:

张红,孙煦,张洋. 房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应:来自二手房交易实验的证据[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(1): 63-67.
Hong ZHANG,Xu SUN,Yang ZHANG. Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection: Evidence from resale housing trading experiments. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 63-67.

链接本文:

http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I1/63

图表:

实验分组		θ标准质量	V/θi元	U1(θi)元	U2(θi)元
对照组	实验1	1	15000	5250	9000
		2	33000	17250	21000
		3	51000	41250	45000
实验组	实验2	1	15000	5250	9000
		2	33000	17250	21000
		3	51000	41250	45000
	实验3	1	22500	5250	9000
		2	49500	17250	21000
		3	76500	41250	45000

实验参数表

区别项目	实验分组
区别项目	实验1(对照组)	实验2(低上涨预期组)	实验3(高上涨预期组)
信息机制设置	质量信息在交易前公布	质量信息在本轮交易完成后公布	质量信息在本轮交易完成后公布
上涨预期水平	买方的上涨预期水平低	买方的上涨预期水平低	买方的上涨预期水平高

实验分组设置表

组别	指标	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差
实验1	成交住房平均价格/(元·m^-2)	6000	48000	19526	9099
实验1	成交住房平均质量/标准质量	1.00	3.00	1.79	0.52
实验2	成交住房平均价格/(元·m^-2)	9500	22000	15053	4831
实验2	成交住房平均质量/标准质量	1.00	2.00	1.21	0.41
实验3	成交住房平均价格/(元·m^-2)	12000	43500	23158	9585
实验3	成交住房平均质量/标准质量	1.00	3.00	1.79	0.69

实验数据结果描述性统计表

测算指标	实验1	实验2	实验3
房价上涨预期指标(BSI)	1	0.78	2.09
逆向选择程度(ASL)	1	1.34	1.06

房价上涨预期指标与逆向选择程度测算结果表

市场成交房屋价格分布图

市场成交房屋质量分布图

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[1]	张红, 张洋, 陈玄冰. 基于经济学实验的信息传递过程中北京二手房信息扩散程度测算[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 54(5): 602-606.