摘要:从1990年联合国"国际减灾10年"倡导构建灾害预警系统以来，国际预警研究迄今已有30年历程。通过回溯国际预警研究发展历程，解析预警体系要素构成框架，探究各类缓慢性、突发性灾害与风险研究进展，探讨不同社会参与主体在预警体系中的职能，指出未来若干年，我国国内生态环境预警研究亟需强化"以人为本"的研究理念，突破"区域综合性生态环境评估"粗放化、模糊化处理研究区各类生态环境风险的传统窠臼，对不同类型生态环境问题开展精细化探索，同时重视风险受众对预警信息接收、接受和响应能力，并与相关机构和组织建立跨地域、跨行业的信息技术交流与协作机制，让利益相关者更广泛地参与预警体系建设，从而接轨国际研究，使研究成果可为精准化生态环境应急管理工作实践提供强有力支撑。



Abstract:The researches of early warning system have developed 30 years since the concept of early warning was advocated in The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction by the United Nations in 1990. By tracing the development processes of early warning research in international fields, the research framework and the main elements, the research advances of various slow and sudden disaster risks, the participants and their functions in early warning system were analyzed in details. Then the huge gaps between the Chinese environmental early warning researches and international research were pointed out. The suggestions were proposed:the domestic research of environment early warning needs to strengthen the concept of people-oriented urgently; the conventional research methods of extensive and fuzzy treatments of various environmental risks in the region should be broken through and the different issues of environmental risk are to be carried out with scientific and systematic study; the construction of software and hardware systems, as well as the operation details on public reception, acceptance and response to early warning information should be taken into account; the research should collaborated with relevant institutions and organizations in information technology exchanges in different regions and areas, and the mechanisms of allowing stakeholders to participate widely in building the early warning system need to be built urgently. The suggestions above will be helpful to enhance the applied value of the research findings of domestic environmental early warning researches in practice. The future domestic researches of environmental early warning can provide strong and effective supports for accurate environmental emergency management.





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