摘要:海洋溢油对生态环境造成污染损害，构成了对海洋环境安全和人体健康的重大威胁，科学地评估溢油污染损害可以发挥为损害修复和赔偿仲裁提供依据的重要作用，为成就这一目标，亟待加强有关溢油污染损害的因果关系及其判定方法与准则的相关理论、技术方法和业务化应用的研究。为此，在对不同原油的各馏分占比和分类组分及含量进行统计分析的基础上，构建了溢油成分统计均值指标体系，基于WHO/IARC化学物质引起人类癌症危险性评价，揭示了不同种类溢油所造成的海洋生态环境损害类型和程度有所不同的因果关系，进而研究提出了基于溢油环境归宿和POPs毒性理论的损害机理分析方法，构建了包括事故发生、成分含量、分类后果、时空分布4类判定准则及其相应指标体系的海洋生态环境损害因果关系判定方法，提出了包括因果关系判定模型、多类型辅助评估模型、调查试验诊断评估方法及业务化流程、以及损害基线与程度判定准则及指标体系的海洋生态损害评估模型体系总体架构，设计阐述了多类型辅助评估模型、损害基线与程度判定准则及指标体系的构建方案。针对辅助评估模型中具有代表性的易受损因子--海水水质指标的损害因果关系判定和损害程度量化问题，构建了基于溢油风化缩比仿真试验的溢油风化水质影响评估模型，采用溢油事故引起海水水质超过不同等级水质标准的超标面积，以及事故发生前后实测的相关海域海水水质超过不同等级水质标准的超标面积发生变化以及出现峰值的状况，作为判定损害因果关系存在和评估损害程度的量化指标，通过开展"塔兹曼海"、大连"7.16"等发生于渤海和黄海的溢油及危化品事故案例调查，实施了判定方法与模型的应用研究，对模型参数进行了率定，模型和实测结果均显示，在具有连通性的渤海和黄海海域，不同时段超过不同等级海水水质标准的超标面积增量与该海域实际发生溢油事故的时间存在显著的关联响应关系。综合判断，溢油污染损害与污染事故发生的时间和位置、所处海域的连通性及扩散条件、入海溢油的总量及环境污染持久性呈密切相关的因果关系。



Abstract:Marine oil spill has caused pollution damage to the ecological environment, which constitutes a major threat to the safety of the marine environment and human health. Scientific assessment of oil spill pollution damage can play an important role in providing basis for damage repair and compensation arbitration. In order to achieve this goal, it is urgent to strengthen the research on the causality of oil spill pollution damage and the related theories, technical methods and operational application of the judgment methods and criteria. To this end, based on the statistical analysis of the proportion of each fraction and the classified components and contents of different crude oils, this paper constructs the statistical mean index system of oil spill components. And based on the WHO/IARC risk assessment of human cancer caused by chemical substances, this paper reveals the causal relationship between the different types and degrees of marine ecological environment damage caused by different types of oil spills. A damage mechanism analysis method based on the environmental fate of oil spill and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) toxicity theory is then proposed, and a causal relationship determination method of marine ecological environment damage is established, which includes four kinds of judgment criteria of accident occurrence, component content, classified consequence, temporal and spatial distribution and corresponding index system. The overall framework of marine ecological damage assessment model system is proposed, including causal relationship determination model, multi type auxiliary assessment model, investigation and test diagnostic assessment method and operational process, as well as damage baseline and degree determination criteria and index system. In addition, this paper further designs the construction scheme of multi type auxiliary evaluation model, damage baseline and degree judgment criteria and index system. Aiming at the problems of causality judgment and damage degree quantification of seawater quality index, which is the representative vulnerably damaged factor in the auxiliary evaluation model, an oil spill weathering water quality impact evaluation model based on scale-down simulation test of oil spill weathering is constructed. The area exceeding the water quality standards of different classes caused by the oil spill accident and the change and the situation of peak value of the area exceeding the water quality standards of different classes actually monitored before and after the accident are adopted as important indicators in order to determine the causal relationship of damage and evaluate the degree of damage. Through the investigation of oil spills and hazardous chemicals accidents happened in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, such as ″Tazman Sea″ and Dalian ″7.16″ oil spills, the application research of judgment method and model was carried out, and the model parameters were calibrated. Both the model and the actually monitored results show that there is a significant correlation between the area increment exceeding the water quality standards of different classes and the actual time of oil spill happened in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea with connectivity. Comprehensive judgment shows that there is a close causal relationship between the oil spill pollution damage and the time and location of the pollution accident happened, the connectivity and diffusion conditions of the sea area, the total amount of oil spilling into the sea and the persistence of environmental pollution.





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