,1,2, 先乐1,2, 王朋岭3,4, 丁子津1Climate change and multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization
CHEN Mingxing,1,2, XIAN Yue1,2, WANG Pengling3,4, DING Zijin1收稿日期:2020-06-20修回日期:2021-07-8
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Received:2020-06-20Revised:2021-07-8
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陈明星(1982-), 男, 安徽巢湖人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事城镇化与区域发展研究。E-mail:
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陈明星, 先乐, 王朋岭, 丁子津. 气候变化与多维度可持续城市化. 地理学报, 2021, 76(8): 1895-1909 doi:10.11821/dlxb202108006
CHEN Mingxing, XIAN Yue, WANG Pengling, DING Zijin.
1 引言
大量事实证明以全球大规模城市化进程为代表的人类活动是气候变化的重要驱动因素。城市人口快速增长、土地利用改变以及大量化石能源开发利用等人类活动,促进经济社会的快速发展,也导致一系列气候系统的变化。一些研究表明气候变化在某些区域一定程度上会产生减少供暖需求和对热能的依赖[3],提高部分地区农业作物产量[4],促进植物生长和生物圈活动增加[5]等积极影响。但更多研究和事实证明,气候变化给未来人类生存与可持续发展带来巨大风险和挑战。城市化过程中大量化石能源利用,导致全球3/4的温室气体排放,直接影响气候变化进程及其未来变化趋势。城市化可对局地气候产生强烈影响,如热岛效应[6,7,8,9],降水空间分配不均[10,11]和洪水、风暴等极端天气频发[12,13,14]。同时,城市已经集聚了全世界一半以上人口,是人类经济社会活动的主要承载体,受气候变化影响大[15]。气候变化对城市化的影响主要表现为能源消耗变化[16,17]、死亡率提高与传染病传播[18,19,20]、沿海及海岛城市安全[21,22,23]、基础设施破坏[24,25]和水资源短缺问题[26,27]。全球气候变化与人类活动相互作用是制约典型城市群地区未来可持续发展的重要瓶颈[28]。国际社会为应对气候变化的巨大挑战,早在1988年成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）,主要开展气候相关影响、适应、减缓和脆弱性等问题的科学研究。随后,多个跨区域多中心网络组织相继建立,如地方政府可持续发展理事会（1990年）,C40城市气候领导小组（2005年）和100韧性城市（2013年）等[29]。2015年《巴黎协定》达成,推动各国节能减排措施执行,以大幅减少气候变化影响和风险。目前,适应与减缓为国际应对气候变化的两大策略。适应一般被描述为自然或人类系统对新环境或变化中的环境做出的调整[30]。减缓定义为减少温室气体排放或进入大气的行动或方法[31]。以往关于气候变化的城市问题和应对措施研究局限于某一领域,例如基于适应策略的城市排水系统设计[32,33,34]、绿色空间规划[35,36]、绿色基础设施应用[37,38,39]、城市治理方式[40]、减少气象灾害风险和危害[41]等;基于缓解策略的低能耗建筑[42,43]、冷屋顶和绿屋顶等新技术运用[44,45,46,47]、可替代能源开发和能源结构调整[48,49,50]等。在城市脆弱性、暴露度、社会适应力、风险和危害等多个方面叠加,产生协同作用和效果,将适应与减缓相结合的系统性方法才能实现长期的可持续发展目标。目前,总体上看,研究主要集中在工程技术、气象与气候学、建筑、能源等某一领域相对独立地进行,着重从地—气系统的变化事实、相互作用关系及其驱动机制阐释。对于人类城市化过程、地球表层变化、气候变化系统的协同相互关系解析仍然不足。从城市化为代表的人类活动角度的适应与减缓,或许是应对气候变化的最关键和最现实路径。更加充分认识大规模城市化进程的影响,从地—气耦合转向人—地—气耦合是未来一个阶段研究的趋势与方向。如何深入推动粗放型城市化向“以人为本”新型城市化转型[51],从过去对气候变化影响较大、不可持续的城市化向对气候变化影响较小的可持续城市化转型,减少气象灾害风险和危害、减缓气候变暖、提高城市社会适应力、降低城市脆弱性和暴露度等,亟待从自然科学与人文社会科学交叉多学科视角来增进认识。基于此,本文首先简要给出全球大规模城市化和气候变化的事实,综述归纳了城市化与气候变化的相互影响机制以及交互关系,建构适应与减缓气候变化的多维度可持续城市化分析框架,为实现全球和区域可持续发展目标提供科学基础和可能的路径选择。
2 全球大规模城市化和气候变化的事实
近几十年,全球经历着大规模、快速发展城市化进程,而且主要发生在发展中国家和地区。据2018年联合国城市化发展展望显示,目前全世界55%人口居住在城镇地区,并预计到2050年这个比例将达到68%[1]。亚洲和非洲虽然城市化率较低,分别为50%、43%,但城镇人口增长迅速。世界城镇人口从1950年7.51亿快速增长至2018年42亿,其中近90%城镇人口增长发生在亚洲和非洲（图1）。撒哈拉以南非洲、东亚、西亚、拉丁美洲以及加勒比地区等欠发达地区城市化速度比发达国家城市化的历史趋势更快。其中,东亚地区经历最快的城市化,1950—2015年的65年间,城市人口比例从18%增长至60%[1]。按现有速度增长,预计到2050年,中等收入国家将形成230座新的城市[52]。研究结果显示,2018年全球人居环境不透水表面达到797076 km²,是1990年的1.5倍,期间亚洲人居环境不透水面增长近3倍,为全球增长最快大洲[53]。图1
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图11950—2050年世界城市与乡村人口变化和世界各地区城市人口随时间变化
注：据联合国人口司数据[1]绘制。
Fig. 1Urban and rural population in the world and urban population by region, 1950-2050
自人类进入工业化社会以来,极端天气频发、海洋变暖、冰川冰盖融化、海平面上升等一系列问题引发国际社会对全球气候变化的关注。根据IPCC第五次评估报告,1880—2012年全球平均陆地和海洋表面温度升高了0.85 ℃,全球气候变化是毋庸置疑的事实,并且气候系统变暖趋势将持续。2015—2019年是由完整气象观测记录以来最暖的5年,全球平均温度较工业化前时期高出1.1 °C;2019年7月欧洲多地遭受高温热浪侵袭成为现代气象观测史上最热的月份（图2）。1971—2010年在全球范围内海洋上层75 m海水每10年升温0.11 °C。同时,气候变暖导致陆地冰川和两极冰盖强烈融化,1993—2009年全球陆地冰川平均损失速率达275 Gt/年。至2011年全球大气主要温室气体二氧化碳（CO2）、甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）的浓度较1750年分别上升40%、150%和20%,达到至少过去80万年以来前所未有的水平。由于冰川冰盖消融和海水热膨胀等因素,1901—2010年间全球平均海平面上升了0.19 m。自19世纪中叶以来,海平面上升的速度高于过去2000年来的平均速度,严重威胁世界上诸多沿海地区和低海拔岛屿[54]。由于气候变化将深刻影响人类社会经济和自然系统,气候行动成为联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）中的关键目标之一。
图2
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图22019年7月全球温度距平(相对于1951—1980年)
注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2020)4395号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改;数据来源NASA[2]。
Fig. 2Global temperature anomalies in July, 2019 (vs 1951-1980)
3 城市化与气候变化的交互影响
3.1 城市化对气候变化的影响
3.1.1 对温度的影响 城市化导致热岛效应对局部地区升温作用显著。大量研究表明,城市地区经历了比非城市地区更强烈的变暖趋势[55]。即使在人口不足1万的小城镇也能检测到热岛效应[7]。研究表明,城市热岛的局部升温作用与城市建筑几何形状、土地覆盖、不透水表面、人为热、植被和水覆盖面积减少等相关[6, 56-57]。土地城市化导致城市地表反照率降低,粗糙度提高,使得城市在白天吸收更多短波辐射。这些吸收热量在夜晚逐渐释放,导致闷热夜晚的发生[58]。在太阳辐射较强情况下,城市化会诱发极端热浪天气的发生[8]。不合理的城市布局可能阻碍城镇空气流动,导致热量疏散减慢[59]。城市人口规模扩大导致从交通出行、住宅能耗、人体新陈代谢等各种来源产生的人为热增加,导致地表能量盈余[60]。3.1.2 对降水的影响 城市化导致降水空间分布的局部改变,尤其是增加了城市下风区降水。Li等通过对北京城市化进程中气候变化趋势分析,发现自20世纪70年代以来北京降水较多区域从城西转到东北部[10]。大量研究发现,城市化导致城市下风区降水增加[11]。Huff等检测圣路易斯、芝加哥、休斯顿、华盛顿等8座城市地区降水变化,发现其夏季降水最大值增加7%~19%,且主要发生在中心城区下风处16~56 km位置[12]。城市表面粗糙度的增加,有利于上升气流的大气辐合作用增强,促进降水[61]。而大量不透水地表,降低城市蒸发量,抑制降水。同时,工业排放增加气溶胶负荷,使大气稳定性提升,从而减少降水[8]。
3.1.3 对极端天气的影响 城市化导致了高温热浪、暴雨、冰雹等极端天气和强对流天气明显增多、增强[13]。Huff等发现城市化导致美国中西部圣路易斯及周围地区暴雨最大值增加13%~47%,冰雹最大值增加90%~350%[12]。Kong等利用1961—2010年6—8月中国544个气象站点的日降水数据,得出中国城市化使得全国范围内极端降水阈值提升1.68%[14]。同时,由于大量不透水地表,使得地表径流时间缩短,径流峰值大于排水系统阈值,导致城市内涝甚至洪水等事件频发。由于人地关系紧张,不少河流三角洲地区的城市占用大面积洪涝缓冲区甚至湖泊、河道,使得城市在相同降水条件下遭受到更大的洪涝灾害[62]。地表径流短时间内将大量污染物带入河流或下渗进入地下水系统,导致水质恶化与水中溶解氧浓度降低[63]。研究估计,自20世纪50年代以来,温室气体排放和快速城市化带来的城市热岛增强等人为因素导致华东地区夏季极端高温事件频率增加60倍以上[64]。Wang等研究发现城市化使得京津冀地区热浪的平均温度提升约0.6 ℃[65]。
3.1.4 对局地—区域—全球多尺度气候变化影响 城市化不仅能引起局地和区域气候变化（城市热岛、极端天气等）,其排放的温室气体及大气污染物通过大气环流影响全球气候变化[15, 57]。自18世纪50年以来,尽管城市仅占地表面积0.4%~0.9%,却承担了世界上3/4能量消耗和温室气体排放,是全球气候变暖的重要原因。城市化进程中化石燃料燃烧以及汽车尾气排放导致大气氮氧化物浓度超高。Chase等模拟得出,区域内土地利用变化并不局限于当地,可能引起全球气候连锁反应[66]。城市化可以直接引起局地/区域气候变化,也能通过影响全球气候间接作用于局地/区域气候变化,产生尺度叠加效应（图3）。
图3
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图3城市化对气候变化的多尺度叠加效应
Fig. 3The multiscale superposition effect of urbanization on climate change
3.2 气候变化对城市化的影响
气候变化主要通过全球变暖、海平面上升、极端事件、降水重新分配对城市化产生影响。其影响主要表现为5个方面：能源消耗变化、健康与传染病传播、沿海及海岛城市安全、基础设施破坏和水资源短缺等问题（图4）。并且随着气候变化幅度的增强,这种影响并非是线性增长关系,而可能随之呈现出非线性的快速增加。图4
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图4城市化与气候变化的关系
Fig. 4The interaction between urbanization and climate change
3.2.1 全球变暖改变能源消耗 升温改变人们住宅能耗季节性需求。经预测,温度升高1~5 ℃,中、高纬度地区和建筑供暖所需能源将减少,但用于城市室内制冷能源将显著增加,例如,由于空调大量使用,到2080年7月雅典能源需求将增加30%[17];至2050伦敦办公大楼预计增加10%能源消耗用于制冷,到2080年,将增加20%[16]。长三角地区年均气温上升1 ℃,将使纺织业的空调能耗增加10%[67]。此外,温度升高会降低热能发电能力,高温也会降低输电能力,造成更多能源损耗。
3.2.2 气候变化与人类健康 全球变暖和极端气候事件直接（热浪或者提高死亡率）或间接（传染病蔓延、病毒存活率等）影响人的身体和心理健康。研究表明,强热浪导致患有心血管或脑血管疾病老人的高死亡率,引发夏季死亡率的继发性高峰[18]。高温还会增加空气中臭氧和其他污染物的含量,从而加剧心血管和呼吸系统疾病[20]。Kovats等通过建模分析热浪对大伦敦地区住院率的影响,观察到在21.5 ℃基础上,每增加1 ℃,死亡率增加3.3%[68]。气候条件严重影响水媒疾病、蚊媒传染病（如登革热、罗斯河病毒疾病）、食源性传染病（包括由沙门氏菌、弯曲杆菌和许多其他微生物导致）和通过其他冷血动物传播的疾病[19]。气候变化使人畜共患寄生虫活动范围扩大,提高寄生虫病患病率[69]。城市化和相关的城市土地扩张使夏季热指数增加75%,降低城市居民生活舒适度[70]。
3.2.3 沿海及海岛城市安全 海平面上升威胁沿海及海岛城市安全。数据表明,人口超过500万的城市中,约65%位于低海拔的沿海地带[71]。超过50%的世界人口居住在低洼地区,潜在容易受到海平面上升的影响[72]。海平面上升的直接影响包括洪水泛滥、海岸侵蚀、暴风潮、咸潮、沿海水位上升和排水不畅通,造成建筑和基础设施破坏、土地流失等灾害。间接影响包括底层沉积物分布的变化、沿海生态系统结构和功能的变化以及对休闲活动的影响[23]。据计算,至2030年长三角的海堤至少需要加高1~1.5 m,一旦溃堤整个上海市、太湖流域和南通、嘉兴将全部淹没[67]。
3.2.4 极端天气气候事件破坏基础设施 洪水、暴风雨等极端天气使城镇遭受财产损失和人员伤亡,也对基础设施、工业生产、废物污水处理系统和其他公用设施造成极大破坏[24]。气候变化使水循环加速、极端降水增多,从而直接影响地表径流和洪水频率及强度[73]。由于大面积不透水地表以及排水系统能力有限,城市更容易遭受内涝、洪水等灾害[25]。考虑到人口和经济集聚,全球大都市、城市群等地区,风险显著提高。2010年长三角地区江苏和浙江受洪涝灾害面积共达773万hm2,绝收面积达22.6万hm2;2013年,浙江省因台风“菲特”造成直接经济损失达124.05亿元[28]。此外,与极端天气相关的自然灾害还包括飓风、山体滑坡、泥石流等,对城镇地区产生更大危害[74]。
3.2.5 水质恶化与水资源短缺 气候变化影响地球淡水资源可获得性和水质,导致一些地区缺水情况更加严峻。通过改变降水模式、升温使蒸发增强等,有些地区变得潮湿,有些地区会变得干燥,特别是干旱与半干旱地区,淡水资源更易受到气候变化影响。气候变化造成12.6%干旱区沙漠化,影响2.13亿人口,其中有90%的人口位于发展中国家[75]。而城镇人口迅速增长以及大规模工业化极大加重水资源短缺问题[27, 76]。研究表明,每升温1 ℃,全球范围内受水资源减少影响人口将增加7%[77]。此外,强降水事件使得大量污染物通过更高的径流和渗透,污染河流和地下水系统,导致城市用水水质下降。
4 适应和减缓气候变化的多维度可持续城市化调控
4.1 国际上可持续城市化相关的研究和行动联盟
1987年布伦特兰报告提出了可持续发展概念,即既满足当代人需求,又不对后代人满足其自身需求的能力构成危害,从社会、经济、环境3个维度维护人类福祉。针对城市可持续发展所面临难题,全球已有200多个多尺度跨区域的城市网络成立,打破了静态且孤立的科学、实践和政策格局,促进利益相关者跨越城市治理、知识创新与城市行动等系统边界的交流,表1列举了许多杰出示例[29]。这些网络可分为研究类合作（如IPCC、城市气候变化研究网络）和行动类合作（如C40城市气候领导小组）。前者提供城市对适应与缓解决策的科学依据,后者提供城市间点对点学习的机构。这些网络加强了科学—实践者—决策者互动,为可持续城市化转型创造有力条件[78]。2012年“未来地球”计划被正式提出,通过建立跨越自然、人文、社会和工程等学科领域的全球研究网络,实现全球的可持续发展[79]。跨学科、跨领域、跨地域的合作联合是解决人类可持续发展问题的大势所趋。Tab. 1
表1
表1多尺度跨区域的城市合作网络示例(引自文献[29],有修改)
Tab. 1
| 多尺度网络 | 核心领域 | 关键举措 |
|---|---|---|
| 联合国可持续发展目标SDGs | 全球综合性可持续发展目标 | 2030议程 |
| 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) | 全球气候变化的科学、技术和社会经济信息评估 | 综合与专题评估报告 |
| 未来地球计划 | 跨自然、人文、工程等学科领域的全球研究网络,可持续发展解决途径 | 科学计划,未来地球计划中国国家委员会等分区推进 |
| 100韧性城市 | 城市行动,韧性措施,当地领导,全球影响 | 100韧性城市网络 |
| C40城市气候领导小组 | 气候适应,减缓措施,空气质量,能源和建筑,食物,水资源与浪费,交通与城市规划 | 期限2020 |
| 城市联盟 | 全球南方城市,城市贫民窟,城市与可持续发展 | 创新议程 |
| 城市转型联盟 | 经济学,政策选项,金融 | 资助城市转型 |
| 全球气候与能源市长公约 | 数据,金融,创新应对气候变化 | 创新4城 |
| 地方可持续发展协会(ICLEI) | 低排放,基于自然,循环的,具有韧性的,公平的和以人为本的发展路径 | 塔拉诺阿对话,100%可再生能源城市和区域网络 |
| 大都市 | 城市外交和大都市倡议,城市治理能力 | 大都市城市创新,大都市天文台 |
| 世界城市和地方联合组织 (UCLG) | 大都市地区,中等城市,地区,当地可持续发展目标 | 学习UCLG |
| 城市气候变化研究网络 | 具体到城市气候变化需求的城市气候变化问题的科学评估(如城市热岛效应、空气质量、城市设计) | 城市气候变化评估(ARC3) |
| 城市知识行动网络 | 城市科学与政策和实践连接,合作设计可持续的城市未来建造能力 | 城市和气候变化科学会议,自然和城市中心评估, |
| 区域网络 | ||
| 非洲中心城市 | 召集人和知识中心节点驱动基于实证的政策对非洲的影响 | 城市实验议程,NOTRUC措施,MOVE议程 |
| 加拿大城市联盟 | 代表所有加拿大城市的组织者,召集人和市政出资人 | 气候创新市政局 |
| 城市抵御极端天气可持续性研究网络 | 将城市科学与政策,规划和管理连接 | 通过与当地或区域利益相关者合作设计的韧性城市的建造能力 |
新窗口打开|下载CSV
4.2 多维度可持续城市化
4.2.1 从地—气耦合到人—地—气耦合 1864年George的著作《人和自然》首次关注人对全球变化作用。2000年诺贝尔奖得主Crutzen提出“人类世”的概念,人类活动在全球过程的多个方面扮演重要角色,引发科学界对人类活动的广泛关注[80]。2009年国际地层委员会成立人类世工作组（Anthropocene Working Group, AWG）展开对是否将“人类世”纳入地质时间尺度的研究。期间,人们发现能区别于其他地质层的人类活动特征,包括黑炭、塑料、混凝土以及239+240Pu沉积等新标志[81]。人类活动正使全球生物多样性发生地理变化,且对海洋生物多样性变化最为强烈和多变[82]。虽然对于人类世能否正式使用,学界仍在探讨,但将人类活动作为全球变化的重要驱动因素,分析框架从地—气耦合到人—地—气耦合的转变至关重要。近年来,不少自然科学关注到人类活动过程的重要性,但对复杂的人类活动缺乏全面的理解和分析。而从事人类活动研究的社会学科往往对人类影响的全球变化未有高度重视和关注[83]。因此将人类活动作为全球和区域气候变化的关键因素,推动学科融合,引入人文视角,从过去地—气耦合系统研究转向人—地—气耦合系统,能在全球变化问题上获得更加全面的科学认识。大规模城市化是人类活动的集中体现,千万规模人口的大城市、城市群和城市连绵带等的出现也是人类世的主要特征之一。地理视角的城市化是人类生产生活方式从农村向城市的变化过程及其空间上的演变过程,包括人口城乡结构、土地覆被、生产方式和社会适应等。城市化和城市能否可持续在未来全球和区域适应和减缓气候变化及可持续发展中发挥着至关重要作用。4.2.2 多维度可持续城市化调控 城市化是地理学关键科学问题之一,其内涵丰富,不仅包括人口城乡过程,也包括土地利用变化、经济非农化与社会领域城市化等综合变化过程[84]。从适应和减缓气候变化角度来看,对城市化多维过程进行解构,从人口、土地、经济与社会等分别采取科学应对措施以促进可持续城市化,实现适应和减缓气候变化与推动全球可持续发展目标的实现（图5）。
图5
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图5应对气候变化的多维度可持续城市化
Fig. 5Multidimensional sustainable urbanization adapting to and mitigating climate change
（1）人口维度：人口空间适度均衡与基础设施。人口空间适度均衡可以缓解超大城市的环境压力,提高城市应对气候变化的适应力。研究表明,大规模人口产生的人为热加剧城市热岛效应。人口向大城市集中的空间分布比空间均衡分布有更高的城市平均热岛强度[85]。世界上一半以上的超大城市或城市群都分布在沿海地区,且越来越多人口向这些地区集聚[71],增加城市的暴露度、脆弱性和气候变化风险。关注中等城市发展,实现人口空间适度均衡发展,可减小城市对气候的影响以及降低城市的气候变化风险水平。
人口空间适度均衡不是人口空间分布均等,而是与城市资源和环境承载力结合的相对概念。研究发现,当城市具有较低失业率与较好的基础设施条件时,人口规模与气候变化适应力负相关关系不显著[86]。由于人口快速涌入,城市弱势群体（如农民工、低收入人群等）只能挤在地价低、风险高的边缘地带,基础设施和公共服务薄弱,则更易遭受气候变化影响[87]。因此建设应对气候变化的基础设施,有利于改善城市弱势群体居住环境,显著减少城市暴露度和脆弱性,减少城市风险[15]。
适应和减缓气候变化的基础设施建设和改造包括可持续水管理系统和新型建筑等。由于气候变化不确定性,传统排水系统难以应对暴雨、洪水等极端天气[88,89]。目前,国内外已有对可持续水管理系统的试验和研究,其原理主要为：利用绿/蓝色空间、渗透过滤带、蓄水措施以及防洪建筑等模拟自然水循环,提高城市土地渗透和蒸发速率,从而减少地表径流与河流污染物负荷,如美国低影响开发（LID）[32]、欧盟的可持续排水系统（SUDs）[34]以及中国的海绵城市[90]等。Özerol等认为应该建立适应气候变化的水管理框架,分为水敏感社区和网络、集水区和生态服务,建立评估指数,便于监测管理[91]。
利用新材料、新技术改造建筑墙体、屋顶、道路等新型基础设施将有效缓解城市热岛效应[47, 92]。Santamouris研究发现绿屋顶和冷屋顶使城镇反照率上升0.1,预计能使平均温度降低率分别在0.3~3 K和0.1~0.33 K[45]。冷屋顶可以使以制冷为主的典型住宅每年节省约170~700 kw·h能耗,使办公建筑每年节省约500~1000 kw·h能耗[46]。高热容的蓄热材料（如PCMs）和光伏技术（PV）等可以减少向环境释放的热量,减缓升温[44]。密封芯片、彩色混泥土、草料混泥土和排水透水路面等辅路材料,也能减缓城市对局地气候的影响[46]。
（2）土地维度：紧凑城市、土地利用集约与蓝/绿色空间布局。紧凑城市具有相对较高的密度、混合土地利用、高强度开发利用、通过完善的公共交通系统紧密连结的特点[93],使城市居民减少长距离交通使用,节省出行能源消耗。在有效交通和基础设施的位置和路线上扩展住宅区,激励人们更多使用公共交通。对于处于快速发展阶段的城市,紧凑的城市发展可以促进更高的人口密度,适当的土地利用规划,减少基础设施投入,保护绿色空间和生态环境承载力,抑制城市热岛[48]。其次,紧凑的空间布局有利于减少住宅和服务建筑耗能,节省基础设施投入。Wende等研究发现紧凑和高体积的建筑形状比低体积的建筑更节能,如相同住户数,带状排屋的能源需求仅为独栋住宅的56%左右[42]。
土地集约利用是城市要素合理布局,实现土地产出效率最高以及资源的最佳利用[94]。城市扩展过程中应遵循“精明增长”,集约利用土地资源,增强土地利用强度,充分利用地上地下立体空间,避免城市粗放式的无序蔓延。对于超大城市或部分大城市,在原城市中心近邻建设紧凑的新城区,将有效降低城市平均热岛强度[85];同时,也能避免重复基础建设造成的资源浪费以及长距离交通导致较高能耗、高污染。中等规模城市具有更大的可塑性,较小路径依赖的影响,更便于紧凑的城市设计与土地集约利用。
城市绿/蓝色空间包括公园、绿道、私家花园、绿色屋顶、湖泊、河流等。大量研究表明,城市绿/蓝色空间具有调节气候,降低城市温度,减少城市碳排放,增加社区可居住性,有利于城市生态系统生物多样性等综合作用[41, 95]。绿/蓝色空间通过提供遮阳和增加蒸发蒸腾降低空气和地表温度[39]。研究证实,绿地地表温度显著低于住宅、工厂建筑及铺有路面的建成区等其他地表覆盖类型[95,96],但绿化区域的降温范围大概在几百米范围内,且其冷空气流动会受到拥挤的交通或高层建筑阻碍[36]。利用绿/蓝色空间建设城市风道,有利于城市空气流通和热量疏散。此外,城市绿化可以储存CO2,减少城市碳排放。例如,在莱斯特城市植被中储存碳总量达31.6 t/hm2 [97]。Chen[38]研究了中国35个主要城市绿色基础设施的碳汇作用,得出平均碳汇强度为21.34 t/hm2,2010年平均年固碳率为2.16 t/hm2。城市绿地和绿屋顶还能减缓径流流速[98],截留雨水,增加土壤的渗透和蓄水能力,减少地表径流中的污染负荷,从而大大改善城市排水系统[41, 99]。
（3）经济维度：低碳经济与创新驱动经济。城市经济发展依赖能源生产和消费。传统工业的化石燃料燃烧是温室气体主要来源,是导致全球变暖的主要因素。2003年英国政府在《我们的未来：创建低碳经济》白皮书中提出低碳经济的发展模式。通过能源结构调整、产业结构创新、节能减排技术提高等,实现低消费、低污染和低排放。
采用多样化能源结构,低碳能源或无碳能源逐步替代传统化石能源,建立可持续的能源体系[49]。化石能源中煤炭单位热值最高,减少煤炭在能源消耗比重,提高石油和天然气替代技术,对煤炭进行低碳化和无碳化处理,有效降低碳排放。目前,国家政策在提高能效和可再生能源比例上发挥巨大作用,如《能源发展战略行动计划（2014—2020）》（中国）、《2020气候和能源一揽子计划》（欧盟）、《清洁能源计划》（美国）等[100]。研究表明,价格和基于市场的政策更有利于技术研发和创新,促使企业提高能源利用率,降低工业能源强度。以市场为基础的政策包括征收碳税碳排放许可交易、产品低碳标识等,如美国的二氧化硫市场和欧盟的碳排放交易体系[101]。
工业制造业、交通运输业和建筑业需要消耗大量能源,而第三产业碳足迹最低[102]。调整产业结构,发展创新驱动经济,减少经济增长对重化工业的依赖,降低产业能源强度,同时增加就业机会。
（4）社会维度：绿色社区。绿色社区包括绿色交通出行、降低居住能耗、适度消费等绿色生活方式和观念,达到低能耗、低排放的目的。
绿色交通出行：以人为本的绿色交通设计与城市规划,采用以步行、自行车、公共交通为主的多模式交通网络,较为汽车设计的城市结构更激励人们绿色出行[103]。过度铺设城市道路具有“交通诱导”作用,形成对汽车的依赖,从而刺激城市道路的进一步扩展[49]。此外,通过无私车日、限制停车位、增加公共交通等强制政策措施可以实现短期交通排放的下降,如巴黎、米兰、成都、布鲁塞尔、哥本哈根等[104]。但强制减少机动车使用会加大居民出行不便,产生新的不平等问题。因此,可持续城市化需要建立多模式人性化的交通体系,提高公共交通的可达性和便利性,满足人口流动需求。
低能耗建筑：目前许多国家和地区已建立建筑能源消耗标准,如美国ASHRAE标准、欧盟接近零能耗建筑（nZEB）。低能耗建筑技术包括使用节能建筑材料,提高住宅隔热性能,智能中央空调控制系统（HVAC）,热电一体化系统,自然通风等[42-43, 46]。设计综合智能能源系统将降低30%~40%的能源消耗和温室气体排放[105]。据估计,以中国北方为例,每新建5亿m2的建筑面积中10%居住建筑达到被动式低能耗标准,则北方地区每年可节约一次能源约85亿kw·h,可减少CO2排放283万t。
适度消费：通过宣传教育,提高社会可持续发展意识,将奢侈消费方式转向适度消费,如减少“一次性”消费、光盘行动、处理闲置物品、选择低碳产品等。过度消费增加资源的压力、产生过多生活垃圾以及增加制造生产中能源消耗。提倡绿色出行,减少对汽车依赖,将有效降低个人碳足迹[102]。
5 结论与讨论
（1）已有大量研究证明全球大规模城市化与气候变化的科学事实,解决适应与减缓气候变化的问题迫在眉睫。以城市化为代表的人类活动是气候变化的重要驱动因素,将城市化过程纳入地气系统耦合过程,建立人—地—气系统耦合分析框架,更好的理解气候变化过程与未来趋势,以更好地科学应对气候变化。（2）城市化与气候变化之间存在着复杂的交互作用与尺度效应。城市化主要通过化石能源消耗、地表下垫面改变等,导致了热岛效应、降水空间分配不均与极端天气频发,并通过尺度叠加效应,导致气候变暖与区域空气污染。气候变化主要通过全球/区域升温、海平面上升、极端事件、水资源对城市化产生影响,主要表现为能源消耗变化、健康与传染病传播、沿海及海岛城市安全、基础设施破坏和水资源短缺问题。
（3）可持续城市化是人类社会应对气候变化的必然选择,以人地关系协调为前提,充分认识可持续城市化内涵,可从人口、土地、经济和社会4个关键维度,建构具有气候韧性的可持续城市化分析框架。人口空间均衡与基础设施建设和改造,紧凑城市、土地利用集约与绿/蓝空间布局,发展低碳经济与创新驱动经济,建设绿色社区与低能耗建设,倡导适度消费等可持续的社会观念等是实现气候韧性城市与人类可持续发展目标的路径选择。
从总体上看,当前对城市化与气候变化两者关系的认识和理解仍处于探索阶段,对城市化与气候变化交互作用关键机制、局地—区域—全球多尺度效应、人—地—气耦合过程与复杂界面过程等关键科学问题的认知很不充分。而适应和减缓气候变化、推动可持续发展目标实现的需求又十分紧迫,如何建立人地气耦合系统分析范式和视角,通过多维度可持续城市化来适应和减缓气候变化提供了可能,亟待开展跨学科的深入探究。应对气候变化需要自然和人文的学科交叉,以及科学—政策—实践的紧密合作。地理学具有综合性和交叉性的学科优势,与气候、水文、人口、城市、经济、社会等学科高度关联,有利于探索气候变化与可持续城市化问题的综合解决方案[106,107]。
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Examining the CO2 emissions by country in the future whether the mitigation plans are implemented or not, as well as their comparison with INDCs, is important to promote the ambition and cooperation on global long-term goal of climate change. A dynamic model of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is established based on statistical analysis between economy and energy development using the latest data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency. Extending and planning scenarios are designed according to whether there exist additional and explicit efforts to mitigate climate change. Then annual CO2 emissions during 2016-2060 for the European Union, the United States, China and India are simulated and compared with INDCs respectively, from which three main conclusions are derived. (1) In planning scenario China will achieve its INDCs. For detail, the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in China will be 63.6% lower than the level of 2005 and the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption will increase to 24.7%. Besides, China will reach the emission peak 11277±643 Mt CO2 in 2030, which is 10 years earlier and almost 3000 Mt CO2 lower than the peak of extending scenario. (2) In planning scenario, the CO2 emissions of EU and US will significantly decrease and the growth rate of India will slow down, which makes EU and India achieve their INDCs likely but US still has a gap around 300 Mt CO2. (3) INDCs are ambitious for all countries, especially for China and US. However, making further efforts on global warming mitigation to control the temperature rise below 2 ℃ or even 1.5 ℃, which requires the developed countries to play an important role on policy, technique and finance, including promoting carbon capture and storage technique, achieving negative growth of CO2 emissions, and providing support for developing countries.
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DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.034URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.189URL [本文引用: 2]
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DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2016.05.032URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1068/a38419URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201504002 [本文引用: 1]
In 2014, the "National New Urbanization Planning" was issued, which indicates that China's urbanization has entered into a transition period from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement". New urbanization will be an important work for the future China in quite a long period of time, which provides a significant opportunity for urbanization field research. This paper gives a general review on the domestic and foreign research progress in time. Internationally, the basic theory and theoretical system of urbanization have come into being. They have been enriched gradually with the deepening of the research. The research field has been expanded. The research methods have been improved. As for China's urbanization research, it developed fast despite a late start, and has made remarkable achievements in many fields, such as the scientific cognition and thoughts of a reasonable urbanization process with Chinese characteristics. In the future, five front scientific issues and their sub-issues in urbanization research have been put forward, such as the interdisciplinary features of urbanization and the establishment of urbanization discipline; the concept, principle, and method of the construction of urbanization basic theoretical system; the regional characteristics of urbanization and relationships between urban and rural integration; the developing model and spatial pattern research of sustainable development; the integration research and simulation platform of urbanization system based on the big data.
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DOI:10.11821/dlxb201711001 [本文引用: 1]
Geography is a subject to explore spatial distribution, time evolution and regional characteristics of geographical elements or geographical complexes. Geography is unique in bridging social sciences and natural sciences, and has characteristics of comprehensiveness, interdisciplinary research and regionalism. With the development of geographical science technology and research methods, geography is in the gorgeous historical process towards geographical science. Research themes of geography are focusing on the comprehensive research on the earth surface. The research paradigms of geography are shifting from geography knowledge description, coupling pattern and process, to the simulation and prediction of complex human and earth system. The development of Chinese geography needs to be rooted in the major needs of national strategy, and plays important roles in the studies of urbanization development, coupling ecological processes and services, water resources management and geopolitics. Under the country's major needs, China's geography tends to achieve the geography theory innovation, new method and technology application and developed disciplinary system with Chinese characteristics, and make more contribution to national and global sustainable development.
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