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探讨过去人地关系演变机制的“支点”概念模型

本站小编 Free考研考试/2021-12-29

<script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/mathjax/2.7.2-beta.0/MathJax.js?config=TeX-AMS-MML_HTMLorMML"></script> <script type='text/x-mathjax-config'> MathJax.Hub.Config({ extensions: ["tex2jax.js"], jax: ["input/TeX", "output/HTML-CSS"], tex2jax: {inlineMath: [ ['$','$'], ["\\(","\\)"] ],displayMath: [ ['$$','$$'], ["\\[","\\]"] ],processEscapes: true}, "HTML-CSS": { availableFonts: ["TeX"] }, TeX: {equationNumbers: {autoNumber: ["none"], useLabelIds: true}}, "HTML-CSS": {linebreaks: {automatic: true}}, SVG: {linebreaks: {automatic: true}} }); </script> 董广辉,1,2, 仇梦晗1, 李若1, 陈发虎2,31.兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州 730000
2.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京100101
3.中国科学院青藏高原研究所高寒生态重点实验室,北京 100101

Using the Fulcrum Cognitive Model to explore the mechanismof past human-land co-evolution

DONG Guanghui,1,2, QIU Menghan1, LI Ruo1, CHEN Fahu2,31. MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System, College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

收稿日期:2019-12-24修回日期:2020-10-12网络出版日期:2021-01-25
基金资助:国家重点研发计划.2018YFA0606402
国家自然科学基金项目.41825001
国家自然科学基金项目.41671077


Received:2019-12-24Revised:2020-10-12Online:2021-01-25
Fund supported: National Key R&D Program of China.2018YFA0606402
National Natural Science Foundation of China.41825001
National Natural Science Foundation of China.41671077

作者简介 About authors
董广辉(1977-), 男, 黑龙江伊春人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事环境考古与环境变化研究。E-mail: ghdong@lzu.edu.cn






摘要
人地关系演变的历史、规律和机制是地理学研究的重要科学问题。在人类社会演化的不同阶段,人与环境相互作用的模式存在显著差异,揭示人地关系在时间维度上的演变轨迹和机制可为有效衔接古今人地关系研究提供重要依据。基于对过去人地关系研究案例的分析和总结,我们提出“支点”概念模型尝试解释人地关系演变的规律和机制。当特定区域人口数量增长到一定程度时,自然生态系统和人类社会系统达到平衡状态,随后的气候环境变化和人类活动变化都有可能打破其平衡状态。人类社会系统在面对生存环境变化压力时可能出现两种不同方式的响应:① 通过人口数量的调节适应生存环境变化而达到新的平衡,其特点是人与环境相互作用的模式(人类社会与自然生态系统平衡“支点”位置)不变;② 通过人类社会组织结构或技术革新方式使社会适应生存环境变化的“韧性”增强,体现为人与环境相互作用模式发生改变。随着时间的推移,社会韧性呈增强趋势,人地关系演变的主导因素也整体呈现由自然因素向人为因素的偏移。最后,以河南、山西和陕西三省仰韶文化时期(约公元前5000—公元前3000年)至周代(公元前1046—公元前256年)的人地关系研究为例,运用“支点”概念模型分析了其演变机制。
关键词: 人与环境相互作用;“支点”概念模型;气候环境变化;人类活动;社会韧性

Abstract
The trajectory, pattern, and mechanism of the human-land co-evolution process is a critical issue in the field of human geography. The pattern of human-environment interaction has varied significantly during different phases of human evolution, suggesting a series of changes in the driving force of human-land co-evolution. Although a variety of underlying mechanisms specific to the key periods of human history (e.g., Paleolithic, Neolithic, Bronze, and historical ages) have been intensively investigated, there are still significant gaps in the widely accepted model of the fundamental law that governs human-land co-evolution across human history. In this paper we propose the Fulcrum Cognitive Model (FCM), with the objective of disentangling the mechanism of human-land co-evolution. The FCM focuses on the equilibrium between the natural ecosystem and human social system, which can be disturbed by both climatic/environmental change and human activities, and restored by an adjustment of the human social system. Moreover, we propose a "quantitative-change equilibrium pattern" and "qualitative-change equilibrium pattern" on the basis of FCM, to further describe the mechanism of past human-land co-evolution in different contexts. In the former pattern, a new equilibrium between the natural ecosystem and human social system is rebuilt by the corresponding changes in population size, without a shift in the fulcrum position. In contrast, in the latter pattern, societies improve their social resilience to the deterioration of the living environment through social and/or technological changes. In this case, the fulcrum position of the original equilibrium shifts and the pattern of human-environment interaction is transformed. Social resilience is gradually strengthened during the evolutionary process and the dominant influencing factor moves from natural causes towards anthropogenic factors. To test its feasibility, we applied the model to the changing patterns of the human-land relationship in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan provinces in central north China between the Yangshao period (~5000-3000 BCE) and Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 BCE), based on a comprehensive analysis of updated archaeological and paleoclimatic data. The results suggested that the mechanism controlling the human-land relationship during ~4000-2600 BCE and 2600-256 BCE could be explained by the "quantitative-change equilibrium pattern" and "qualitative-change equilibrium pattern", respectively. The mechanism of human-land co-evolution in the past is very complicated and the interaction of these two patterns may vary in terms of its spatiotemporal scale, which will require further study in the future.
Keywords:human-environmental interaction;Fulcrum Cognitive Model (FCM);climatic and environmental change;human activity;social resilience


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本文引用格式
董广辉, 仇梦晗, 李若, 陈发虎. 探讨过去人地关系演变机制的“支点”概念模型. 地理学报[J], 2021, 76(1): 15-29 doi:10.11821/dlxb202101002
DONG Guanghui, QIU Menghan, LI Ruo, CHEN Fahu. Using the Fulcrum Cognitive Model to explore the mechanismof past human-land co-evolution. Acta Geographica Sinice[J], 2021, 76(1): 15-29 doi:10.11821/dlxb202101002


1 引言

人类及其社会的存在和演化离不开所生存的环境,人类的演化历史也是时间维度上人地关系演变的历史。在此过程中人类与生存环境的关系是在变化的,不同阶段人与环境相互作用的模式有明显的差异[1]。在旧石器时代(距今约300万~1万年前),重大气候事件及其引发的人类生存环境变化被认为在人类起源、直立人扩散和现代智人迁徙等人类演化的重大事件中起到了重要的推动作用[2,3,4],狩猎采集人群在旧石器时代晚期通过拓展食谱等方式显著增强了对环境的适应能力[5,6],生存空间拓展至高纬度和高海拔地区[7,8]。尽管旧石器晚期人类的狩猎行为被认为是导致一些野生动物灭绝的重要原因[9,10],狩猎采集人群的活动对自然生态系统影响的范围和强度是很有限的,而自然生态系统对旧石器时代人类活动的制约作用是很显著的。

新石器时代(距今约10000~4000年前),气候环境变化对人类活动和文化演化的影响仍然显著,暖湿的气候被认为是促进新石器文化和人类活动繁盛的关键因素[11,12,13],而美索不达米亚和哈拉帕等古文明的衰退则被认为是由重大气候恶化事件导致的[14,15]。新石器时代农牧业的发展与传播促使人类适应生存环境的能力较旧石器时代显著增强[16,17],人类活动对环境影响的强度也随着人类定居强度的上升而增加,对区域尺度的火灾频率、植被演替和地貌造成影响[18,19,20]。青铜时代(距今约4000~2200年前)是早期跨大陆文化交流强化的时期[21,22],人类应对气候环境变化的能力显著提升,在北半球总体呈现降温趋势的背景下,将生存空间向高纬度和高海拔地区拓展[1, 23],人类活动对自然环境的影响强度和范围进一步增加[24,25]。秦汉时期(公元前221年—公元220年)及以后,随着丝绸之路的开通和世界不同地区帝国的兴起,尽管气候环境变化仍然被认为是人类文明演化的重要影响因素[26,27,28],文化交流和地缘政治等社会因素对人类文明演化的影响越来越明显[29,30],而人类活动则逐渐成为改变其赖以生存的陆地表层系统的重要驱动因素,尤其在工业革命之后[31,32,33]

针对过去人地关系演变的机制问题,学术界有不同的观点。有****强调气候环境变化在人类文明演化进程中起到了至关重要的作用[34,35,36],也有****认为社会因素(如社会组织、技术革新和文化交流)等是推动人类文明演进的首要因素[37,38],还有****认为人类活动是导致区域古文明衰退的关键原因[39]。导致上述问题的一个重要原因是讨论的时空尺度的差异,在人类文明演化的不同阶段人与环境相互作用的特征是不一样的,而不同空间尺度影响古代社会演化的主导因素同样存在差异[40]。因此,如何将不同研究时段的工作结合在一起,探讨过去人地关系演变的总体规律和机制,是亟待开展的研究工作。

2 解释过去人地关系演变机制的“支点”概念模型

在解释和刻画史前时代和历史时期人地关系演变的规律和机制方面,一些****提出了模型加以阐释,对认识人类社会演化不同阶段人与环境相互作用的模式发挥了积极的作用。不同阶段社会复杂化程度的差异导致人与环境相互作用模式不同,研究资料丰富度也存在显著差异(如:历史时期文献记录信息丰富),因此人地关系模型的指标体系和特征有明显区别。比如,在旧石器时代,自然生态系统的净初级生产力和生物多样性的上升对全球狩猎采集人群的人口密度增加起到了促进作用,而病原体则起到负面效应[41]。在新石器—青铜时代,重大自然灾害事件(如特大干旱)会导致农业生产系统受到破坏,进而导致古文明衰退,而温度和降水下降的幅度、突然性和持续时间等因素与其对人类社会系统影响的程度紧密相关[42,43,44]。在历史时期,人类社会在面对气候变化时仍表现出“冷抑暖扬”的响应特征,然而气候优越时期社会人口的增长也给资源环境造成了更大的压力,因而增加了在面对重大气候恶化事件时人地关系失衡的风险,往往出现地区性甚至更大范围的社会危机[45,46,47]。在气候变化影响社会演化的机理研究方面也有更为细致的阐述,如:公元1560—1660年欧洲的寒冷气候和人口规模增长导致粮食减产和供求失衡,造成饥荒和经济危机,进而诱发社会动乱和战争等社会危机[48];在中国,公元16世纪末—17世纪初的气候转冷和干旱事件触发一系列的社会问题,包括粮食减产、北方军垦体系崩溃导致的明政府财政危机加重,农民起义与灾民增加导致的起义军队伍扩大和明政府军供给能力减弱等,成为明朝覆灭的导火索[49]。一些****以粮食安全为纽带,构建了历史时期气候(自然系统)变化对社会系统影响的传导过程与概念模式[46, 50]。这些工作对解释过去人地关系演变的机制提供了重要的启示,但研究时段多限于人类社会演进的特定阶段,缺乏贯通人类社会演化不同阶段人地关系演变模型的研究。

针对上述问题,本文尝试将人类演化不同阶段的人与环境相互作用特征串联起来,提出阐释时间维度上人地关系演变机制的“支点”概念模型(图1)。建立这一模型的前提是某一时间节点特定区域的人口数量在当时的社会经济发展水平下达到饱和程度,自然生态系统和人类社会系统处于平衡状态,处于杠杆的两端,而人类社会经济的发展程度则决定了平衡点(即支点)的位置。气候环境变化和人类活动变化都有可能导致这一平衡状态被打破,迫使人类社会系统做出调整,促进人类社会系统与自然生态系统适应变化达到新的平衡状态。而建立新的平衡状态有两种不同的模式:① 支点的位置不变,通过人口数量的增减适应生存资源的变化,我们称之为“量变平衡模式”;② 支点的位置发生变化,人类社会通过组织和技术革新增强应对环境变化的能力(即社会韧性,Social Resilience),我们称之为“质变平衡模式”。

图1

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图1解释过去人地关系变化的“支点”概念模型

Fig. 1The mechanism of past human-land co-evolution as indicated by the "Fulcrum" Cognitive Model



2.1 量变平衡模式

人类社会系统和自然生态系统的平衡关系与人类社会发展的程度是紧密相关的。在人类演化的某些阶段,人类社会的组织结构和技术水平等方面没有发生明显的变化,人类社会应对生存环境变化的社会韧性基本保持不变。在这些时段内,人类社会系统和自然生态系统的平衡关系,主要体现在特定区域内生存环境承载力和人口数量之间的平衡,在气候环境变化或人类活动导致生存环境承载力发生变化时,人口数量也随之出现相应的调整,进而达到新的平衡状态(图2)。在量变平衡模式中,人类社会系统与自然生态系统平衡的支点位置保持不变,即人与环境相互作用的模式没有发生变化。

图2

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图2“支点”概念模型的量变平衡模式

Fig. 2The quantitative-change equilibrium pattern of the "Fulcrum" Cognitive Model



气候恶化(如温度、降水的显著下降)、环境灾害事件和人类活动对资源的消耗,都有可能造成人类生存环境的恶化,主要体现在生存资源(水资源、可食用的植物和动物资源等)的减少和适宜人类生存环境(生境)的萎缩,造成人类生存压力的增加。面对这种情况,人类社会系统可能通过战争、杀戮或迁徙等方式使区域内人口数量下降,进而与弱化的生存环境承载力之间达到新的平衡。反之,气候环境优化或人类对生存环境的改良行为可能会改善人类的生存环境,导致特定区域内人类可利用的生存资源增加,适宜人类生存的空间增加,人类生存压力降低,区域内人口从饱和状态变为不饱和状态,通过人口的进一步增长与强化的生存环境承载力之间达到新的平衡。

在人类演化进程中,可以观察到很多量化平衡模式的案例。比如,在史前时代和历史时期,都曾出现过重大的气候恶化事件导致人口数量下降和古文明衰退,或是朝代更迭的现象。在旧石器时代,气候恶化对区域尺度人类的影响主要体现在导致狩猎采集人群活动强度的下降或迁出,在大陆—全球尺度则体现为人类生存空间的转移。末次冰盛期(距今约26500~18000年前)的严寒气候导致亚洲北部旧石器人群活动范围收缩[51],迫使中国北方旧石器人群向低纬度、低海拔地区迁徙,旧石器人群活动强度显著下降[1, 52]。新石器—青铜时代,气候与环境恶化事件对人类的影响主要体现为人口的下降、文化的衰退以及古文明衰落。比如,在非洲东北部,距今7300年前开始的季风衰退导致东撒哈拉地区出现严重的沙漠化,人群被迫向尼罗河谷地区迁移[11]。在中国东北的燕辽地区,中全新世的干旱气候和沙漠化事件被认为是导致该地区新石器文化衰退和人群迁离的重要因素[53,54,55]。距今4200年前后的干旱事件,对两河流域和印度河流域的农业生产系统造成严重影响,进而成为美索不达米亚和哈拉帕文明衰落和人口规模大幅下降的主要原因[14-15, 56]。气候和环境恶化事件导致古文明衰退和人口数量剧减的现象延续至历史时期,如:公元7—11世纪间美洲玛雅文明核心区的干旱气候导致了该文明的衰退[57,58];公元14—15世纪中南半岛的干旱气候和夏季降水异常引发的旱涝灾害严重袭扰了吴哥城,间接导致了高棉帝国的衰亡[27]。除气候环境变化因素外,人类活动对自然环境的过度开发也可能导致区域生存环境的恶化,进而导致区域人口的减少和文明的衰落。如:河西走廊地区齐家、西城驿和四坝文化时期(约公元前2000—公元前1300年)人类定居强度较高且从事冶铜生产,对生存环境产生了负面影响,引起森林破坏、土壤侵蚀和环境污染等问题[25, 59-61],被认为与随后该地区人类定居强度的显著下降有紧密关联。有****认为:位于丝绸之路重要枢纽位置的楼兰古国(公元前176年—公元630年)的衰亡,主要诱发因素是农业灌溉用水过度导致的土地荒漠化,称之为“世界最早的咸海类型危机”[39]

一些研究案例显示,全新世千年—百年尺度的气候波动与古文化或文明的兴衰表现出良好的对应关系[62,63],而这样的规律往往出现在社会组织结构和人类技术体系相对稳定不变的时期,是量变平衡模式的体现,也显示气候环境变化和人类活动对人地关系演变的影响同时存在负反馈和正反馈。气候环境优化和人类对生存环境的改良行为(如植树造林、施肥等)提升生存环境承载力,进而促进史前和历史时期人口增长和文化兴盛的现象也不乏研究案例。如:在北欧地区,距今7500~5700年的高温(尤其是夏季温度的升高)提升了生态系统的生产力,促进了狩猎采集人群人口的持续增长[64]。在东亚季风区,距今约9000~5000年是气候暖湿且稳定的时期,对促进中国新石器文化发展和人口增长提供了良好的生存环境基础[65]。在中原地区,距今7500~5000年是全新世降水鼎盛的时期,促进了黄河流域仰韶文化体系的发展和兴盛[12]。在历史时期,暖湿气候则对农耕文明的发展兴盛起到了促进作用,以中国为例,自秦以来明确记载的31个盛世、大治和中兴事件中,有24个是发生在气候温暖或相对偏暖,以及由冷转暖的时段[47, 66-67]。除气候环境优化的影响,古人类对生存环境的改良也可能对人口增长和文明演进产生积极的影响。如,有****认为在黄河中游地区新石器晚期人类已有施肥行为,对支撑区域文化的发展兴盛起到积极的作用[68]。自公元前1700年开始,东非地区史前牧业人群在夜间集中圈养牲畜时产生的粪便提高了所在地点的土壤肥力,起到优化草场和吸引野生动物的作用,制造生境相对适宜的“热点”斑块,从而提高地区的宜居性,促进了社会的发展[69]

2.2 质变平衡模式

尽管史前时代气候环境变化对人类及其社会演化产生了重要的影响,但在不同文化阶段人与环境相互作用的模式不断变化。以中国为例,旧石器晚期气候持续寒冷,人类生存空间明显向低海拔和低纬度地区收缩,新石器时代人类定居强度变化的主导因素是农业发展,重大气候事件依然是重要影响因素。然而青铜时代早期(约公元前2000—公元前1500年)在北半球中高纬度降温背景下,人类的生存空间反而呈现向更高海拔和高纬地区扩张的趋势,人与环境相互作用的模式发生了显著变化[1]。这个研究案例表明:至少在新石器晚期至青铜时代早期,人地关系演变的机制是无法用量变平衡模式解释的。该时期自然生态系统与人类社会系统的平衡点位置发生改变,体现为质变平衡模式。

在人类演化进程中,曾出现过一些重大的技术和社会革新事件,如旧石器时代晚期的“广谱革命”、新石器时代早期的“农业起源”、公元前4000—公元前1500年欧亚大陆不同地区早期文明的兴起,以及公元18世纪的“工业革命”等。这些事件很大程度上改变或加速了人类文明演化的轨迹和进程,其发生机制在学术界仍然存在很大的争论,气候环境变化、人口增长、战争等被视为关键的诱发因素。因此,本文提出质变平衡模式,如图3所示。特定区域内气候环境恶化和人类活动对自然生态系统的消耗,导致人类生存压力上升。不同于量变平衡模式,人类通过社会组织结构或技术的革新,推动文明的演进和人口的增长,其结果是社会复杂化程度增加,人类社会应对生存环境变化的社会韧性增强,自然生态系统与人类社会系统的支点位置发生变化。在气候环境优化或人类活动对生存环境有显著改良的情况下,人类的生存压力降低,社会人口具备了快速增长的条件。当人口增长过度时,同样导致人类的生存压力增加,出现与前述模式相同的效果。总体而言,人类社会复杂化程度和应对生存环境变化的社会韧性呈现增加趋势,因此人与环境相互作用的模式变化是不可逆的,即随着人类社会发展时段由远及近,人地关系演变的主导因子逐渐由自然因素向人为因素转变,尤其是在局地和区域的空间尺度上。

图3

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图3“支点”概念模型的质变平衡模式

Fig. 3The qualitative-change equilibrium pattern of the "Fulcrum" Cognitive Model



旧石器时代人类所利用的石器技术特征曾经发生过四次重要的变化,对人类的演化进程产生了重要的影响[70]。旧石器晚期人类适应气候环境变化的策略发生显著变化。距今40000~30000年捕猎工具的技术进步显著提升了旧石器人群狩猎和捕鱼的效率[71],人类的生存空间拓展至北极圈和青藏高原腹地等极端环境地区[8, 72-73]。距今约20000~10000年前,人类狩猎采集的动物和植物种类显著增加,称为“广谱革命”(Broad Spectrum Revolution),该时段的气候寒冷事件被认为是重要的诱发因素[74,75]。“广谱革命”很大程度上提升了狩猎采集人群适应生存环境变化的能力,世界人口在此后也出现了显著的增长[71]。全新世早期的“农业革命”对人类及其社会演化起到了重要的促进作用,使人类的生产生活方式从狩猎采集经济和游猎向种植谷物与饲养家畜和定居转变。关于农业起源的发生机制存在不同的假说,其中新仙女木事件时期(Younger Dryas,距今约12900~11700年)寒冷的气候被认为是迫使人类改变生产生活方式(驯化动植物资源)以适应生存环境变化的重要影响因素[76,77]。然而,在漫长的旧石器时代,全球气候曾发生多次大幅波动(如冰期和间冰期的循环),为什么直到近一万年前才出现农作物和家畜的驯化?这是一个值得深入探讨的问题。关于农业起源,另一种可能是区域人口规模与气候变化综合作用的结果。以东亚地区为例,遗传学研究显示该地区人口从距今13000年前就开始持续增长[78],而新仙女木事件导致人类生存环境急剧恶化,其结果很可能是人口数量与生存资源的矛盾突出,进而为农业起源提供了动力。从这个角度观察,质变平衡模式中的气候环境变化对人类社会系统与自然生态系统平衡的正负效应共同促进了农业起源,而农业起源及其扩散推动了全球人口的快速增长[79],加速了文明演进的进程,对人与环境相互作用关系的变化产生了深远的影响。

公元前4000—公元前2000年,在欧亚大陆的两河流域、印度河流域和黄河流域出现了世界最早的文明,这一时期也是跨大陆文化交流出现和强化的关键阶段[21, 80],同时还是全新世中期向晚期过渡的时段,全球气候变化的幅度和速率都高于全新世早中期[81,82]。这些因素共同导致该时期欧亚大陆不同区域人与环境相互作用模式发生质的变化,如:在青藏高原东北部,耐寒农作物大麦和驯化家畜羊的引入促使人类于公元前1600年前后在气候冷干背景下大规模向高海拔地区扩张并永久定居[23];与此同时,中原地区虽然延续了以粟黍农业为主的生产方式[83],但人类社会复杂化进程加快并迈入文明时代。无论是技术还是社会组织结构的革新,都能够显著提升社会韧性,推动人与环境相互作用的模式发生质变,人类社会应对气候环境变化的能力显著提升。在汉代之后,丝绸之路的开通和发展、大航海时代和随之而来的全球化,进一步提升了跨大陆文化交流的广度和强度,在一些特定时段对人与环境相互作用模式的变化产生关键影响。比如,高产作物玉米的引入和大面积种植对中国16世纪末至19世纪中期(明朝万历至清朝道光年间)人口的快速增长(约从6000万增长至4亿)[84]起到关键作用,而该时期处于“小冰期”(Little Ice Age,1450—1850年),东亚季风区整体呈现冷干的气候特征,说明人类农业生产技术体系的升级和政策因素是推动中国人口快速增长的主要动力之一。

3 “支点”概念模型的应用:以晋陕豫地区仰韶至周代人地关系为例

为检验用“支点”概念模型解释过去人地关系演变规律和机制的效果,本文选择作为中原地区主体的晋陕豫地区为研究区,以仰韶至周代(约公元前5000—公元前256年)为研究时段,开展人地关系演变机制的探讨。研究区和研究时段选择的理由如下:① 晋陕豫是新石器中晚期以来文明演进的关键地区,仰韶文化遗址数量已达3308个[85,86,87],显示该地区自然生态系统和人类社会系统可能在公元前5000—公元前3000年即达到平衡状态;② 晋陕豫地区是中华文明起源的核心区,也是受早期东西方文化交流影响的重要区域[88,89],不同阶段生产技术有显著的变化;③ 晋陕豫地区处于季风区[12]图4),有较好的全新世古气候研究基础。为减少单一古气候记录可能导致空间差异性无法体现的问题[90],选择研究区内具有高年代分辨率的九仙洞石笋氧同位素反映的季风强度[91]和基于山西公海孢粉数据定量重建的古降水[12],反映研究区仰韶至周代的湿度变化。选择华北北部地区全新世温度集成序列[92]和基于云南省星云湖孢粉数据定量重建的7月温度[93],反映仰韶至周代的年均温和夏季温度的变化。以上古湿度和古温度记录整体变化趋势具有较好的一致性,在仰韶文化时期气候相对暖湿,庙底沟二期(约公元前3000—公元前2600年)气候转向冷干,龙山—陶寺文化时期(约公元前2600—公元前1750年)气候有所好转但存在波动,二里头时期(约公元前1750—公元前1500年)降水较低,商周时期(约公元前1600—公元前256年)温度降水总体呈下降趋势(图5a~5b)。

图4

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图4研究区位置示意图

注:基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2019)1823号标准地图制作,底图无修改;1~3分别为公海、九仙洞和星云湖古气候记录点。
Fig. 4Location of the study area



图5

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图5晋陕豫地区仰韶至周代气候变化、定居强度和生产方式变化

注:图a~d数据分别来自文献[92,93]、[12, 91]、[1]和[100-112]。
Fig. 5Climate change, population intensity, and shift of production mode in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Henan region from the Yangshao period to the Zhou Dynasty



人类定居强度和人口变化历史重建是开展区域人地关系演变规律和机制讨论的前提。在没有文字记录的时代,14C年代总和频率曲线被广泛应用为人类活动强度与人口规模的代用指标[65, 94-95]。为降低采样不均衡和年代校正等因素对人类定居强度重建的影响,我们对晋陕豫地区已发表的14C年代数据进行了如下处理。首先,为减少某些时期或遗址过度测年造成的误差,我们将出土于同一遗址且相差不超过100年的年代放入同一个年代箱中,对每个年代箱中的数据进行平均值计算,使用OxCal 4.3软件对14C年代平均值进行校正并绘制频率曲线。其次,有研究显示校正过程中树轮校正曲线会对频率曲线造成人为影响[96,97,98],可通过年代箱中年代数量直方图检测频率曲线的峰值与谷值[98]。近期有****对中国旧石器晚期至青铜时代的14C年代数据进行了总结[1],本文选取了其中来自河南、陕西和山西3省共194个遗址的1297个14C年代数据,分入544个年代箱,构成37个年代箱数量柱(图5c)。14C年代总和频率曲线和年代箱数量直方图显示,晋陕豫地区人类定居强度在仰韶文化时期呈现上升趋势,在庙底沟二期出现显著下降,龙山—陶寺文化时期逐渐增加,二里头时期达到鼎盛。商周时期14C年代总和频率曲线总体呈下降趋势,但文献记录显示该时期中原人口是显著增长的,商代多于二里头时期,西周多于商代,东周人口显著多于西周[99]。造成这种现象的可能原因是:自商代开始,文字记录的出现和逐渐普及为考古定年提供了新的依据,考古学相对定年(依据地层学和类型学判断年代)的结果也更加准确,因而从一定程度上降低了对14C测年的需求,造成14C年代总和频率曲线的逐渐下降。因此,该时期的人口变化趋势应采信相关文献研究。

仰韶文化时期气候总体温暖湿润,半坡文化时期人类定居强度总体较低,与该时期正处于由狩猎采集经济为主向粟黍农业经济为主的转型阶段有关[83, 103]。公元前4000—公元前2000年,中原地区的生业模式都以粟黍农业为主导,植物考古[83]和骨骼同位素证据(图5d)都证实了这一点。在粟黍农业主导的生产方式下,气候暖湿阶段(公元前4000—公元前3000年)晋陕豫地区人类定居强度呈增加趋势,气候转向冷干阶段(公元前3000—公元前2600年)人类定居强度显著下降,呈现出量变平衡模式的特征。龙山—陶寺文化时期,虽然降水和温度有所回升,但仍处于波动状态,在二里头文化时期气候则呈现降水较少,华北温度低于仰韶时期的特征(图5a~5b)。然而,公元前2600—公元前1500年晋陕豫地区人类定居强度处于上升趋势,尤其是在二里头时期达到峰值(图5e~5f),呈现与此前阶段不同的模式。龙山晚期—陶寺文化时期(约公元前2300—公元前1750年),中原地区早期古城开始出现。其中以山西陶寺古城和陕西石峁古城最具代表性,面积分别达到280万m2和400万m2,且出现明显的功能分区特征[114,115],显示该时期社会复杂化程度显著增强,人类社会应对气候环境变化的韧性得到提升。二里头时期是中华文明起源的关键时期,出现了大型的宫殿建筑群(河南偃师二里头遗址)。该时期是早期东西方交流强化时期,青铜器、小麦、大麦和羊都已传入中原地区,中国传统的五谷作物已在该地区聚集齐全[89]。青铜文化开始兴盛,显示社会组织结构和技术体系进一步得到提升,促使在气候冷干的背景下,人类定居强度较龙山—陶寺文化时期显著上升。上述分析显示,仰韶中晚期至庙底沟二期(约公元前4000—公元前2600年)人地关系演变机制可以用“支点”概念模型的量变平衡模式解释,仰韶中晚期的暖湿气候为粟黍农业的稳定产出提供良好的水热条件,促进人口增长和文化繁盛;庙底沟二期温度和降水都有显著的下降,对粟黍农业产量有负面影响,生态环境的恶化还可能导致该时期适宜的人类生存空间萎缩。龙山—二里头时期(约公元前2600—公元前1500年),人地关系演化规律与前一阶段有明显差异,其机制可以用质变平衡模式解释。这一时期是中华文明起源的关键时期,无论是人类社会的组织结构,还是生产技术体系都有长足的进步,人类适应自然生态系统变化的社会韧性显著增强,尽管气候总体趋向冷干且波动幅度较大,人类定居强度仍在持续增加(图5)。

根据文献记录,商代至东周时期(约公元前1600—公元前256年)晋陕豫地区人口数量进一步增加[116],而温度和降水则总体呈现下降趋势(图5a~5b)。在这一时期,人类社会系统的复杂化程度和生产技术水平提高。甲骨文在商代出现,墓葬形制和骨骼同位素证据都显示商代社会等级分化程度较此前显著增强[106-107, 117]。而中国的传统家畜中的“六畜”在这一时期均已得到利用[118,119,120,121]。西周时期,冶铁技术的出现进一步提升了生产效率。值得注意的是,西周和东周的过渡时期(公元前8世纪)正处在降水和温度明显下降的阶段,且东周的气候条件整体不如西周时期优越(图5a~5b),而东周时期的人口数量却较西周时期增加了近一倍[99],这与产量较高的作物小麦在东周时期得到推广有密切的关系[120,121,122,123]。麦类作物在东周时期农业经济中地位的提升也可在历史文献中得到佐证,如《礼记·月令》中的记载:“乃劝种麦,毋或失时,其有失时,行罪无疑。”此外,有****总结了文献记录中粟黍和麦类出现的频次,发现麦类被提及的次数在东周时期显著增加[124]。人骨碳同位素进一步证实,该时期人类摄食结构中C3植物的比重显著增加(图5d);结合植物考古证据和文献记录,该时段人群摄食的主要C3植物正是小麦。上述人地关系变化主要体现了质变平衡模式的特征。

4 结论

人地关系研究是地理学永恒的主题,而人地关系演变的规律和机制是很复杂的科学问题。我们尝试提出的“支点”概念模型,致力于推进从时间维度上探讨过去人地关系演变的机制,希望能将人类社会演化不同阶段的规律结合起来探讨。我们在“支点”概念模型中提出了量变平衡模式和质变平衡模式以解释特定时期特定区域的人地关系演变机制,但人地关系演化过程更为复杂,多数情况下两种模式交织在一起,互相影响、共同作用。以晋陕豫地区为例,仰韶中晚期至庙底沟二期人类社会组织和生产方式也是存在变化的,二里头时期至周代也存在十年至百年尺度的稳定时期,龙山与二里头时期的社会变革也受到周围地区人群迁徙的影响[122]。量变平衡模式和质变平衡模式在时间尺度上的有效性很可能是不一样的,后者可能主要解释十年至百年尺度的人与环境相互作用模式变化,而前者适用的时间尺度更长。因此,“支点”概念模型在何种时间尺度和空间尺度在哪些前提下有效,是需要深入思考和研究的问题。我们开展这一工作,是希望抛砖引玉,从古今人与环境相互作用模式变化规律视角,对理解过去人地关系的机制提供参考和启示。

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[ 赵成双苹, 莫多闻. 长江中游江汉—洞庭盆地全新世以来水文环境演变与人类活动
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Mischke S, Liu Chenglin, Zhang Jiafu, et al. The world's earliest Aral-Sea type disaster: The decline of the Loulan Kingdom in the Tarim Basin
Scientific Reports, 2017,7:43102. DOI: 10.1038/srep43102.

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Remnants of cities and farmlands in China's hyperarid Tarim Basin indicate that environmental conditions were significantly wetter two millennia ago in a region which is barren desert today. Historical documents and age data of organic remains show that the Loulan Kingdom flourished during the Han Dynasty (206 BCE-220 CE) but was abandoned between its end and 645 CE. Previous archaeological, geomorphological and geological studies suggest that deteriorating climate conditions led to the abandonment of the ancient desert cities. Based on analyses of lake sediments from Lop Nur in the eastern Tarim Basin and a review of published records, we show that the Loulan Kingdom decline resulted from a man-made environmental disaster comparable to the recent Aral Sea crisis rather than from changing climate. Lop Nur and other lakes within the Han Dynasty realm experienced rapidly declining water levels or even desiccation whilst lakes in adjacent regions recorded rising levels and relatively wet conditions during the time of the Loulan Kingdom decline. Water withdrawal for irrigation farming in the middle reaches of rivers likely caused water shortage downstream and eventually the widespread deterioration of desert oases a long time before man initiated the Aral Sea disaster in the 1960s.

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Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined

Zheng Jingyun, Xiao Lingbo, Fang Xiuqi, et al. How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming Dynasty
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Fang Xiuqi, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng. Historical climate change impact-response processes under the framework of food security in China
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[ 方修琦, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理
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In the middle-to-late Holocene, Earth's monsoonal regions experienced catastrophic precipitation decreases that produced green to desert state shifts. Resulting hydrologic regime change negatively impacted water availability and Neolithic cultures. Whereas mid-Holocene drying is commonly attributed to slow insolation reduction and subsequent nonlinear vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks that produce threshold conditions, evidence of trigger events initiating state switching has remained elusive. Here we document a threshold event ca. 4,200 years ago in the Hunshandake Sandy Lands of Inner Mongolia, northern China, associated with groundwater capture by the Xilamulun River. This process initiated a sudden and irreversible region-wide hydrologic event that exacerbated the desertification of the Hunshandake, resulting in post-Humid Period mass migration of northern China's Neolithic cultures. The Hunshandake remains arid and is unlikely, even with massive rehabilitation efforts, to revert back to green conditions.

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The role of climate change in the development and demise of Classic Maya civilization (300 to 1000 C.E.) remains controversial because of the absence of well-dated climate and archaeological sequences. We present a precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize. From comparison of this record with historical events compiled from well-dated stone monuments, we propose that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E. This was followed by a drying trend between 660 and 1000 C.E. that triggered the balkanization of polities, increased warfare, and the asynchronous disintegration of polities, followed by population collapse in the context of an extended drought between 1020 and 1100 C.E.

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The demise of Lowland Classic Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (~800 to 1000 CE) is a well-cited example of how past climate may have affected ancient societies. Attempts to estimate the magnitude of hydrologic change, however, have met with equivocal success because of the qualitative and indirect nature of available climate proxy data. We reconstructed the past isotopic composition (delta(18)O, deltaD, (17)O-excess, and d-excess) of water in Lake Chichancanab, Mexico, using a technique that involves isotopic analysis of the structurally bound water in sedimentary gypsum, which was deposited under drought conditions. The triple oxygen and hydrogen isotope data provide a direct measure of past changes in lake hydrology. We modeled the data and conclude that annual precipitation decreased between 41 and 54% (with intervals of up to 70% rainfall reduction during peak drought conditions) and that relative humidity declined by 2 to 7% compared to present-day conditions.

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Shen Hui, Zhou Xinying, Zhao Keliang, et al. Wood types and human impact between 4300 and 2400 yr BP in the Hexi Corridor, NW China, inferred from charcoal records
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Prehistoric human activities were likely influenced by cyclic monsoon climate changes in East Asia. Here we report a decadal-resolution Holocene pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar Lake in Northeast China, a proxy of monsoon climate, together with a compilation of 627 radiocarbon dates from archeological sites in Northeast China which is a proxy of human activity. The results reveal synchronous ~500-year quasi-periodic changes over the last 8000 years. The warm-humid/cold-dry phases of monsoon cycles correspond closely to the intensification/weakening of human activity and the flourishing/decline of prehistoric cultures. Six prosperous phases of prehistoric cultures, with one exception, correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened monsoon. This ~500-year cyclicity in the monsoon and thus environmental change triggered the development of prehistoric cultures in Northeast China. The cyclicity is apparently linked to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, against the background of long-term Holocene climatic evolution. These findings reveal a pronounced relationship between prehistoric human activity and cyclical climate change.

Zhang D D, Pei Qing, Lee H F, et al. The pulse of imperial China: A quantitative analysis of long-term geopolitical and climatic cycles
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Wang Can, Lu Houyuan, Zhang Jianping, et al. Prehistoric demographic fluctuations in China inferred from radiocarbon data and their linkage with climate change over the past 50, 000 years
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Historic human-climate interactions have been of interest to scholars for a long time. However, exploring the long-term relation between prehistoric demography and climate change remains challenging because of the absence of an effective proxy for population reconstruction. Recently, the summed probability distribution of archaeological radiocarbon dates has been widely used as a proxy for human population levels, although researchers recognize that such usage must be cautious. This approach is rarely applied in China due to the lack of a comprehensive archaeological radiocarbon database, and thus the relation between human population and climate change in China remains ambiguous. Herein we systematically compile an archaeological C-14 database (n = 4656) for China for the first time. Using the summed probability distributions of the radiocarbon dates alongside high-resolution palaeoclimatic records, we show that: 1) the commencement of major population expansion in China was at 9 ka cal BP, occurring after the appearance of agriculture and associated with the early Holocene climate amelioration; 2) the major periods of small population size and population decline, i.e., 46-43 ka cal BP, 41-38 ka cal BP, 31-28.6 ka cal BP, 25-23.5 ka cal BP, 18-15.2 ka cal BP, and 13-11.4 ka cal BP, correspond well with the dating of abrupt cold events in the Last Glacial (LG) such as the Heinrich and Younger Dryas (YD) events, while the major periods of high-level population in the Holocene, i.e., 8.5-7 ka cal BP, 6.5-5 ka cal BP and 4.3-2.8 ka cal BP, occur at the same times as warm-moist conditions and Neolithic cultural prosperity, suggesting that abrupt cooling in the climate profoundly limited population size and that mild climate episodes spurred a growth in prehistoric populations and advances in human cultures; and 3) populations in different regions experience different growth trajectories and that their responses to climate change are varied, due to both regional environmental diversity and the attainment of different levels of adaptive strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Yin Jun, Fang Xiuqi, Su Yun. Correlation between climate and grain harvest fluctuations and the dynastic transitions and prosperity in China over the past two millennia
The Holocene, 2016,26(12):1914-1923.

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[ 方修琦, 萧凌波, 苏筠, . 中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响
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Wang Xin, Fuller B T, Zhang Pengcheng, et al. Millet manuring as a driving force for the Late Neolithic agricultural expansion of north China
Scientific Reports, 2018,8(1):5552. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23315-4.

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Research in to the nature of Neolithic agriculture in China is often focused on topics such as the domestication and spread of cereal crops and the reconstruction of human and animal diets in the past. Field management practices, such as organic manuring, have not been systematically investigated in Chinese archaeology. Here we present an isotopic dataset for archaeological foxtail millet (Setaria italica) and common millet (Panicum miliaceum) grains as well as associated faunal remains (both domesticated and wild) from seven sites in the Baishui Valley of north China, in order to find direct evidence of organic manuring during the Late Neolithic period. The elevated nitrogen isotope values of the millet grains (5500-3500 cal BP) in comparison with the estimated local vegetation indicates that millets were organically manured by animal dung, mostly likely originating from domestic pigs. Considering the low nitrogen contents of loess soils and their unsuitability for intensive cultivation, this organic manuring by animal dung would have played a key role in maintaining soil productivity and crop yield, which was necessary to support the demands of agriculture and cultural expansion during the Late Neolithic on the Loess Plateau of China.

Marshall F Reid R E B Goldstein S, et al. Ancient herders enriched and restructured African grasslands
Nature, 2018,561(7723):387-390.

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Grasslands are one of the world's most extensive terrestrial biomes and are central to the survival of herders, their livestock and diverse communities of large wild mammals(1-3). In Africa, tropical soils are predominantly nutrient-limited(4-6) but productive grassy patches in wooded grassland savannah ecosystems(2,4) grow on fertile soils created by geologic and edaphic factors, megafauna, fire and termites(4-6). Mobile pastoralists also create soil-fertility hotspots by penning their herds at night, which concentrates excrement-and thus nutrients-from grazing of the surrounding savannahs(7-11). Historical anthropogenic hotspots produce high-quality forage, attract wildlife and increase spatial heterogeneity in African savannahs(4,12-15). Archaeological research suggests this effect extends back at least 1,000 years(16-19) but little is known about nutrient persistence at millennial scales. Here we use chemical, isotopic and sedimentary analyses to show high nutrient and (15)N enrichment in on-site degraded dung deposits relative to off-site soils at five Pastoral Neolithic(20) sites (radiocarbon dated to between 3,700 and 1,550 calibrated years before present (cal. BP)). This study demonstrates the longevity of nutrient hotspots and the long-term legacy of ancient herders, whose settlements enriched and diversified African savannah landscapes over three millennia.

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Palaeolithic sites in Russian high latitudes have been considered as Upper Palaeolithic and thus representing an Arctic expansion of modern humans. Here we show that at Byzovaya, in the western foothills of the Polar Urals, the technological structure of the lithic assemblage makes it directly comparable with Mousterian Middle Palaeolithic industries that so far have been exclusively attributed to the Neandertal populations in Europe. Radiocarbon and optical-stimulated luminescence dates on bones and sand grains indicate that the site was occupied during a short period around 28,500 carbon-14 years before the present (about 31,000 to 34,000 calendar years ago), at the time when only Upper Palaeolithic cultures occupied lower latitudes of Eurasia. Byzovaya may thus represent a late northern refuge for Neandertals, about 1000 km north of earlier known Mousterian sites.

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It is a major question in archaeology and anthropology whether human populations started to grow primarily after the advent of agriculture, i.e., the Neolithic time, especially in East Asia, which was one of the centers of ancient agricultural civilization. To answer this question requires an accurate estimation of the time of lineage expansion as well as that of population expansion in a population sample without ascertainment bias. In this study, we analyzed all available mtDNA genomes of East Asians ascertained by random sampling, a total of 367 complete mtDNA sequences generated by the 1000 Genome Project, including 249 Chinese (CHB, CHD, and CHS) and 118 Japanese (JPT). We found that major mtDNA lineages underwent expansions, all of which, except for two JPT-specific lineages, including D4, D4b2b, D4a, D4j, D5a2a, A, N9a, F1a1'4, F2, B4, B4a, G2a1 and M7b1'2'4, occurred before 10 kya, i.e., before the Neolithic time (symbolized by Dadiwan Culture at 7.9 kya) in East Asia. Consistent to this observation, the further analysis showed that the population expansion in East Asia started at 13 kya and lasted until 4 kya. The results suggest that the population growth in East Asia constituted a need for the introduction of agriculture and might be one of the driving forces that led to the further development of agriculture.

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The largest movements and replacements of human populations since the end of the Ice Ages resulted from the geographically uneven rise of food production around the world. The first farming societies thereby gained great advantages over hunter-gatherer societies. But most of those resulting shifts of populations and languages are complex, controversial, or both. We discuss the main complications and specific examples involving 15 language families. Further progress will depend on interdisciplinary research that combines archaeology, crop and livestock studies, physical anthropology, genetics, and linguistics.

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We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past approximately 12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4-5 degrees C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of approximately 3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800-7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated approximately 1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a approximately 25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss ( approximately 1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland.

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An assemblage of charred plant remains collected from 26 sites in the Yiluo valley of North China as part of an archaeological survey spans the period from the sixth millennium to 1300 calibrated calendrical years (cal) B.C. The plant remains document a long sequence of crops, weeds, and other plants in the country. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of sediment sampling as part of an archaeological survey. Ten accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) radiocarbon dates on crop remains inform an assessment of the sequence of agricultural development in the region. Foxtail millet (Setaria italica subsp. italica) was grown during the Early Neolithic period and was the principal crop for at least four millennia. Broomcorn millet (Panicum miliaceum) was significantly less important throughout the sequence. Rice (Oryza sativa) was introduced by 3000 cal B.C. but apparently was not an important local crop. Wheat became a significant crop between 1600 and 1300 cal B.C. The weed flora diversified through time and were dominated by annual grasses, some of which were probably fodder for domesticated animals. The North China farming tradition that emphasized dry crops (millets, wheat, and legumes) with some rice appears to have been established at the latest by the Early Shang (Erligang; 1600-1300 B.C.) period.

Zhang De'er, Li Hongchun, Gu Delong, et al. On linking climate to Chinese dynastic change: Spatial and temporal variations of monsoonal rain
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