关键词：科尔沁沙地;气温;突变;时空变化;对比分析 Abstract Based on temperature data from 1951 to 2012 we analyzed abrupt change features of temperature and temporal and spatial variation before and after abrupt temperature change. We found that year （season）minimum temperature changed （1981-1987）,followed by year （season）mean temperature （1981-1994）,and then year （season）maximum temperature （1985-1999）. Winter temperatures have changed more abruptly than summer temperatures;minimum temperature was more abrupt than mean temperature,mean temperature was more abrupt than maximum temperature in spring （autumn and annual）;winter shows the opposite pattern. Before the abrupt change in minimum temperature （0.50℃/10a）in spring,after the abrupt change of the maximum temperature in autumn （0.75℃/10a）,are the largest contributor to temperature rise. Across all of the elements of temperature before and after abrupt change,the largest incremental mean value for many years is the winter minimum temperature （1.86℃）and the smallest is annual maximum temperature （0.83℃）. The largest incremental climate tendency rate is the autumn maximum temperature （0.72℃/10a）and the smallest is the summer maximum temperature （-0.02℃/10a）. Seasonal order of incremental mean temperature value for many years before and after abrupt change is opposite to their incremental climate tendency rate. The value range of all annual temperature elements' climate tendency rates after abrupt change are wider than before abrupt change;the area of annual minimum temperature increasing significant abrupt change increased by 6.79% compared with their before abrupt change. For the Xinkai and Xiliao Rivers the warming trend is higher than for other regions after abrupt change,except for the mean temperature for the Horqin Left Wing Middle Banner region. This study not only has a practical guide on ecological environment, farming and stockraising development, water resources development and utilization and and so on production and fliving but also has a certain scientific reference on global climatic change law.
Keywords：Horqin Sandy Land;temperature;abrupt change;temporal and spatial variability;comparative analysis -->0 PDF (3493KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章收藏文章 本文引用格式导出EndNoteRisBibtex收藏本文--> 王静茹, 马龙, 刘廷玺, 黄星, 刘丹辉, 李虹雨. 1951-2012年科尔沁沙地气温在突变前后的时空对比[J]. , 2016, 38(4): 690-703 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2016.04.11 WANGJingru, MALong, LIUTingxi, HUANGXing, LIUDanhui, LIHongyu. Comparative analysis of temperature before and after abrupt changes in Horqin Sandy Land from 1951 to 2012[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(4): 690-703 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2016.04.11
科尔沁沙地范围见图1,其地理位置界于117°45'E-124°06'E,42°36'N-45°20'N之间,属辽河中游冲积平原,现状地貌形态主要包括固定沙地、半固定沙地和流动沙丘。风沙土是科尔沁沙地面积最大的土类,其次是草甸土、栗钙土、盐碱土、暗棕壤土、黑钙土等。植被区系处于内蒙古、长白和华北植物区系的交汇地,植物种类较为丰富。该地区年降水量在200~650mm之间,70%的降水集中在6月、7月、8月3个月份;年蒸发量在1 600~2 400mm（蒸发皿为 20cm口径）之间,主要集中在4-9月,此间蒸发量占全年蒸发量的78%左右;夏季炎热,冬季漫长干冷,多年平均气温在6℃左右[34]。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图1科尔沁沙地位置及气象站点分布 -->Figure 1The position of Horqin Sandy Land and distribution of meteorological station -->
气候突变（包括气温突变）是指从一种稳定态（或稳定持续的变化趋势）跳跃式地转变到另一种稳定态（或稳定持续地变化趋势）的现象,它表现为气候在时空上从一个统计特性到另一个统计特性的急剧变化[36]。1951-2012年科尔沁沙地区域平均年（季）各气温要素Mann-Kendall突变检验见图2。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图21951-2012年科尔沁沙地区域平均的年（季）各气温要素的Mann-Kendall突变检验注：贯穿图中的竖线为年和各季节突变年份的示意线;★为突变年份示意点。 -->Figure 2The regional average of year（season） all temperature elements abrupt in Horqin Sandy Land from 1951 to 2012 -->
区域平均的年（季）各气温要素突变前后的基本特征变化见图3。气温突变年变化方面,年最高气温多年均值突变后比突变前升高0.83℃,突变前极值差为3.24℃,突变后极值差为3.05℃。突变前后变异系数分别为0.06、0.05。突变前有较明显的周期波动缓慢上升,共出现4次峰值,4次谷值（以较大而明显的周期为准）,气候倾向率为0.07℃/10a,但不显著;突变后周期波动相对减弱,只有2次明显的谷值,且显著上升（通过了显著性水平α=5%的F检验）,气候倾向率为0.26℃/10a;突变前后气候倾向率的增量为0.19℃/10a。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图3科尔沁沙地区域平均的年（季）各气温要素值、多年均值、五年滑动平均值突变前后对比 -->Figure3The regional average of year （season）temperature elements' value,mean value for many years,five years moving average of compare the change of the abrupt temperature change before and after in Horqin Sandy Land -->
年平均气温多年均值突变后比突变前升高1.19℃。突变前极值差为2.85℃,突变后极值差为2.51℃。突变前后变异系数分别为0.11、0.10。突变前有较明显的周期波动缓慢上升,共出现3次峰值,3次谷值,气候倾向率为0.19℃/10a;突变后周期波动相对减弱,只有3次较明显的谷值,气候倾向率为0.33℃/10a;气温突变前后均呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率增量为0.14℃/10a。 年最低气温多年均值突变后比突变前升高1.47℃。突变前极值差为2.63℃,突变后极值差为2.63℃。突变前后变异系数分别为0.76、0.98。突变前出现2次峰值,2次谷值,气候倾向率为0.27℃/10a;突变后变化相对剧烈,出现2次峰值,3次谷值,气候倾向率为0.42℃/10a;突变前后均呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率增量为0.14℃/10a。 综上所述,年最高气温和年平均气温突变前极值差相对较大,年最低气温突变前后极值差一致。年最高气温和年平均气温突变前后变化剧烈程度基本一致,突变前后变异系数差为0.01,而年最低气温突变后变化更剧烈,突变前后变异系数差为0.18。年最高气温、年平均气温、年最低气温三者突变前后多年均值升温幅度依次增大。三者突变前后的升温速率（气候倾向率）增量为年最高气温最大,年最低气温次之,年平均气温最小。 限于篇幅,此处不再展开叙述四季各气温要素突变前后的变化,现将其基本特征值列于表1、表2、表3。 Table 1 表1 表1科尔沁沙地区域平均的各季节最高气温突变前后的基本特征 Table 1The fundamental of regional average of each season maximum temperature before and after abrupt temperature change in Horqin Sandy Land
多年均值 /℃
极大值 /℃（年份）
极小值 /℃（年份）
极值差 /℃
变异系数
气候倾向率 /（℃/10a）
峰（谷） 值（次）
春季
突变前
14.51
16.55（1989）
12.75（1980）
3.80
0.08
0.101
3（4）
突变后
15.43
18.13（1998）
11.92（2010）
6.21
0.09
0.275
1（0）
夏季
突变前
28.54
30.59（1997）
27.11（1992）
3.39
0.03
0.030
4（5）
突变后
29.70
31.58（2000）
28.55（2012）
3.03
0.03
0.009
1（1）
秋季
突变前
13.50
15.80（1975）
11.28（1981）
4.52
0.07
0.031
0（0）
突变后
14.35
16.28（2005）
11.72（2002）
4.56
0.09
0.747*
1（1）
冬季
突变前
-5.65
-3.38（1962）
-9.23（1969）
5.85
0.24
0.032
3（3）
突变后
-4.69
-1.09（2007）
-8.51（2012）
7.43
0.45
0.126
2（1）
注： *表示通过显著性水平（α=0.05）F检验。 新窗口打开 Table 2 表2 表2科尔沁沙地区域平均的各季节平均气温突变前后的基本特征 Table 2The fundamental of regional average of each season mean temperature before and after abrupt temperature change in Horqin Sandy Land
多年均值 /℃
极大值 /℃（年份）
极小值 /℃（年份）
极值差 /℃
变异系数
气候倾向率 /（℃/10a）
峰（谷） 值（次）
春季
突变前
7.00
8.91（1975）
5.50（1957）
3.41
0.15
0.319*
4（4）
突变后
8.25
10.61（2002）
5.70（2010）
4.91
0.14
0.520*
2（2）
夏季
突变前
22.36
23.66（1988）
21.17（1969）
2.49
0.03
0.087*
4（5）
突变后
23.45
25.24（2000）
22.22（2012）
3.02
0.04
0.400*
2（1）
秋季
突变前
6.04
8.01（1975）
4.37（1981）
3.64
0.13
0.142*
0（0）
突变后
7.13
8.91（2005）
4.93（2002）
3.98
0.14
0.422*
2（2）
冬季
突变前
-12.93
-10.81（1962）
-15.70（1969）
4.89
0.09
0.184
2（3）
突变后
-11.47
-8.24（2007）
-14.82（2012）
6.58
0.15
0.357*
2（2）
注： *表示通过显著性水平（α=0.05）F检验。 新窗口打开 Table 3 表3 表3科尔沁沙地区域平均的各季节最低气温突变前后的基本特征 Table 3The fundamental of regional average of each season minimum temperature before and after abrupt temperature change in Horqin Sandy Land
科尔沁沙地各气温要素年值突变前后倾向率的空间分布见图4。年最高气温在突变前后变化均不显著（F检验图略）,突变前（图4a）整体以较微弱的趋势升高,西部升温趋势最大,奈曼旗及周边地区甚至有微弱的降低趋势,整体表现为沿老哈河和新开河以北地区倾向率大于以南地区倾向率（科左中旗地区除外）。突变后（如图4b）变化趋势有所增加,但仍不显著,且降低趋势的变化幅度相对更大,整体表现为自东向西沿新开河到西辽河的以北地区倾向率大于以南地区倾向率,同时呈自东向西逐渐增大趋势,且由负趋势逐渐变为正趋势。突变后气候倾向率值变化范围较突变前有所增大。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图4科尔沁沙地各气温要素突变前后气候倾向率空间分布 -->Figure 4The spatial distribution of all temperature elements' climate tendency rate before and after abrupt temperature change in Horqin Sandy Land -->
年平均气温突变前（图4c）整个科尔沁沙地呈升温趋势,其中在科右中旗和扎鲁特旗周边地区的气候倾向率最大,且变化显著的（通过显著性水平（α=0.05）F检验,见图5a及表4）面积占整个研究区的3.15%;科尔沁沙地东南部气候倾向率较小,96.85%的面积都呈不显著的升温趋势,整体表现为沿老哈河和新开河以北地区倾向率大于以南地区倾向率。突变后（图4d）大部地区仍然呈升温趋势,显著升高的面积占1.52%（见图5b及表4）;巴林左旗地区呈极显著升高（通过显著性水平（α=0.01）F检验）;在翁牛特旗、奈曼旗、库伦县、科左中旗等地周围年平均气温有所降低,但不显著,整体表现为自东向西沿新开河到西辽河的以北地区倾向率大于以南地区倾向率（科左中旗地区除外）。突变后气候倾向率值变化范围同样较突变前有所增大,但显著及极显著增温的面积突变后减少1.52%。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图5科尔沁沙地年平均气温、最低气温变化显著性F检验空间分布注：显著升高（降低）表示通过显著性水平（α= 0.05）F检验,极显著升高（降低）表示通过显著性水平（α= 0.01）F检验。 -->Figure 5The spatial distribution of annual average temperature,minimum temperature change significance' F test before and after abrupt temperature change in Horqin Sandy Land -->
Table 4 表4 表4年平均气温、最低气温空间变化显著与否所占的面积比 Table 4Occupied area ratio of annual average temperature,minimum temperature space variation significant or not （%）
综上所述,科尔沁沙地各类气温发生了全面突变,突变后升温速率更显著。与全球气温突变产生的诸多影响如干旱程度增加,生物多样性减少,物候期提前、植被生产力减少,冰雪融化、海平面上升,极端天气发生频率增加等类似[37],气温突变对研究区气候、植被、水资源、农牧业等方面产生很多影响,极端气候事件发生频率和强度不断增大。研究区最低气温升高趋势十分显著,1951-2012年的三次历史最高记录都出现在气温突变后,近10年局部沙化区域仍有向西北扩张趋势[38],与本次突变前后西北部升温速率呈持续加快趋势相吻合,表明沙漠化与气温升高有密切的联系。除此之外,研究区干旱、洪涝、霜冻等极端气候事件发生概率亦增多[39,40];蒸发量增大,加剧浅层潜水的咸化;植物多样性减少[41]。另外,也有一些有利影响,如中晚熟农作物品种产量提高,冬季气候变暖有利于牲畜安全越冬和接羔保育等[42]。 在宏观尺度上,科尔沁沙地气温变化符合全球变化规律,其变化驱动力是自然因素和人类活动共同作用的结果[43]。根据前人研究结果,气温突变的自然因素为北极涛动（AO）的影响主要集中在中高纬地区（含科尔沁沙地）,北大西洋涛动（NAO）在20世纪70年代末强度增强,本次研究区最低气温突变时间与之相呼应,另与东亚地区冬季气旋/反气旋活动及寒潮的显著变化有一定联系;太阳活动通过平流层温度场和风场,改变大气环流空间结构,亦进而影响气候变化。火山活动、臭氧、气溶胶等也可能是影响因素.另外,ENSO其中之一的极地/欧亚型涛动,the Polar/ Eurasian Pattern（P/E）是冬季最主要的大气低频变化,它的其中一个中心位于中国东北,且只出现在冬季,对东北地区气温变化影响显著[44],而本次研究区位于东北地区西南方向,在最低气温为升温的主要驱动力背景下,冬季最高气温突变前后、平均气温和最低气温突变前升温速率的不显著亦可能是受P/E的影响。多年来,全球及研究区人口增加、生产活动加强、经济社会不断发展导致城市化热导效应增强等都可能是造成气温升高的重要人类活动因素。 本文对研究区气温突变做了详细分析,但由于数据时间长度有限,对于长期气温变化规律分析及气温升高原因的剖析存在一定局限性。此外,使用数据为处理后的区域平均值,由其来反映整个研究区气温突变特征,忽略了区域异质性,对结果代表性亦将产生一定影响。本次研究不仅对于深入了解并揭示中国干旱寒冷地区气候变化规律有一定科学借鉴意义,而且对于科尔沁沙地生态环境、农牧业发展、水资源开发利用等生产生活有一定实践指导意义,亦为全球气候研究最终目标──定量阐明地球系统过去变化规律及其过程,增进对未来气候、环境变化预测和制定可持续发展战略[45]提供一定借鉴。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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