李香芳^{1, 2, 3, 4,},
李栋梁^1,,,
段晓凤^{2, 3, 5},
刘垚^{2, 3, 4}
1.南京信息工程大学/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心 南京 210044
2.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室 银川 750002
3.宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室 银川 750002
4.宁夏气象服务中心 银川 750002
5.内蒙古生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010051
基金项目: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目GYHY201506001-1
国家自然科学基金项目41565007

详细信息

作者简介:李香芳, 主要研究方向为气候动力学、农业气象。E-mail:lxf1896@163.com

通讯作者:李栋梁, 主要研究方向为气候动力学、气候变化和预测。E-mail:uyiy25@163.com

中图分类号:P49

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收稿日期:2019-06-29
录用日期:2019-09-16
刊出日期:2019-12-01

Variations and effects of climate in growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia

LI Xiangfang^{1, 2, 3, 4,},
LI Dongliang^1,,,
DUAN Xiaofeng^{2, 3, 5},
LIU Yao^{2, 3, 4}
1. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Meteorological Disaster Forecasting and Warning Assessment Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China
2. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China
3. Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China
4. Ningxia Meteorological Service Centre, Yinchuan 750002, China
5. Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center, Hohhot 010051, China
Funds: the Special Research Project of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) of ChinaGYHY201506001-1
the National Natural Science Foundation of China41565007

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Corresponding author:LI Dongliang, E-mail:uyiy25@163.com

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摘要
摘要:为明确宁夏枸杞（Lycium barbarum L.）生长季气候变化特征及其对枸杞生长的影响，为决策部门有效利用气候资源提供数据支撑，本文基于1961-2017年宁夏17个气象站点的观测数据，采用数理统计分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测、气候倾向率和相关性检验等方法，分析了宁夏枸杞生育期气候变化特征及其影响。结果表明：气候暖干化是宁夏枸杞生育期气候变化的主要特征。近57 a来，气候变暖使宁夏枸杞生育期平均气温、≥ 10℃积温及日照时数增加，其线性趋势通过了0.001显著性水平检验。平均气温在1990年左右发生突变，1991-2017年平均气温比1961-1990年上升了0.7℃。≥ 10℃积温在20世纪90年代增加速率最大，2003年发生突变，比突变前年平均增加370.6℃。日照时数在2005年前后发生突变，突变后平均年日照时数增加93.9 h。降水量整体呈弱的减少趋势。气候变化对枸杞生长发育的影响利多弊少。气温升高，春季气温回升快，积温增多，整个生育期热量条件充足，使枸杞树萌芽期提前，总生育期延长，单产提高；果熟期、采摘期降水量减少，使枸杞炭疽病、黑果病发生机率减少，有利于品质提高。研究发现，中宁枸杞产量与稳定通过5℃到枸杞萌芽期的积温、≥ 10℃积温均显著正相关。同时，气候变暖增加了冬季农田土壤水分蒸发，病虫害发生有增加趋势。如何充分利用有利的气候资源，减轻或避免气候变化对枸杞生产的不利影响是需要进一步研究的重要内容。
Abstract:In order to clarify the characteristics of climate change (1961-2017) in the growing season of Lycium barbarum and its impact on L. barbarum growth in Ningxia, and to provide corresponding data for effective utilization of climatic resources and scientific theoretical basis for the production and decision-making department of L. barbarum, the characteristics of climate change during the growth period of L. barbarum and its effects in Ningxia were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation detection, climatic tendency rate and correlation test, based on the observations of 17 meteorological stations in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017. Results showed that warming and drying were the main characteristics of climate change during the growth period of L. barbarum in Ningxia. Over the past 57 years, the average temperature, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and sunshine hours during the growing period of L. barbarum in Ningxia increased due to climate warming, and the linear trend passed 0.001 significance level test. Average temperature changed abruptly around 1990, and increased by 0.7℃ during 1991-2017 compared with 1961-1990. ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature had the maximum increase rate in 1990s, and abruptly changed in 2003. After that, annual ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by 370.6℃. Annual sunshine hours increased by 93.9 h in 2005 compared with before 2005. Precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend in 1961-2017. Effects of climate change on the growth of L. barbarum had more advantages than disadvantages. With the increase of air temperature and the rapid rise of air temperature in spring, the germination period of L. barbarum shifted to an earlier date, the total growth period was prolonged, and the yield per unit area was increased, which was beneficial to agricultural production. The decrease of precipitation during fruit ripening and picking period reduced the occurrence of anthracnose and improved the quality of L. barbarum. Furthermore, there was a significant positive correlation between the accumulated temperature from the date of passing 5℃ to the germination stage of L. barbarum, the ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and the yield of L. barbarum in Zhongning. Meanwhile, climate warming increased soil moisture evaporation in winter, which lead to an increasing trend on incidence of pests and diseases of L. barbarum. It needs a further research on how to make full use of favorable climatic resources, to avoid or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change on L. barbarum production.

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图11961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期平均气温的空间分布
Figure1.Spatial distribution of average temperature during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017


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图21961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期平均气温的年际变化(a)和M-K突变检验(b)
图 2b中, 直实线为α=0.05显著性水平临界值, 直虚线为α=0.001显著性水平临界值。
Figure2.Interannual variation (a) and M-K mutation test (b) of average temperature during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017
In figure 2b, the solid and dotted straight lines are significant horizontal critical values of α = 0.05 and 0.001, respectively.


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图31961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期≥10 ℃积温的空间分布
Figure3.Spatial distribution of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017


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图41961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期≥10 ℃积温的年际变化(a)和M-K突变检验(b)
图 4b中, 直实线为α=0.05显著性水平临界值, 直虚线为α=0.001显著性水平临界值。
Figure4.Interannual variation (a) and M-K mutation test (b) of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017
In figure 4b, the solid and dotted straight lines are significant horizontal critical values of α = 0.05 and 0.001, respectively.


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图51961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期日照时数的空间分布
Figure5.Spatial distribution of sunshine hours during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017


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图61961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期日照时数的年际变化(a)和M-K突变检验(b)
图 6b中, 直实线为α=0.05显著性水平临界值, 直虚线为α=0.001显著性水平临界值。
Figure6.Interannual variation (a) and M-K mutation test (b) of sunshine hours during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017
In figure 6b, the solid and dotted straight lines are significant horizontal critical values of α = 0.05 and 0.001, respectively.


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图71961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期降雨(d)的空间分布
Figure7.Spatial distribution of precipitation during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017


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图81961—2017年宁夏枸杞生育期降雨的年际变化(a)和M-K突变检验(b)
图 8b中, 直实线为α=0.05显著性水平临界值。
Figure8.Interannual variation (a) and M-K mutation test (b) of precipitation during growth period of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia from 1961 to 2017
In figure 8b, the solid straight lines are significant horizontal critical values of α = 0.05.


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图9中宁县2006—2018年枸杞萌芽期≥5 ℃积温(a)、1984—2018年全生育期≥10 ℃积温(b)与产量的关系
Figure9.Relationships between yield and ≥ 5 ℃ accumulated temperature during germination (a) in 2006—2018 and ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature during entire growth period (b) in 1984—2018 of Lycium barbarum L. in Zhongning County, Ningxia


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表11961—2003年和2004—2017年宁夏枸杞物候期比较统计
Table1.Comparative statistics of phenology periods of Lycium barbarum L. from 1961 to 2003 and from 2004 to 2017 in Ningxia

区域 Area	萌芽期(月-日) Germination stage (month-day)		提前日数 Advance days (d)	秋果成熟期(月-日) Mature stage of autumn fruit (month-day)		推迟日数 Delayed days (d)	1961—2017年生育期 Growth period from 1961 to 2017 (d)
	1961—2003	2004—2017		1961—2003	2004—2017
石嘴山Shizuishan	04-15	04-11	4	10-06	10-11	5	182
惠农Huinong	04-20	04-12	8	10-07	10-15	8	175
贺兰Helan	04-18	04-11	7	10-08	10-11	3	177
平罗Pingluo	04-19	04-13	6	10-07	10-14	7	176
吴忠Wuzhong	04-17	04-09	8	10-08	10-16	8	179
银川Yinchuan	04-18	04-11	7	10-08	10-15	7	178
陶乐Taole	04-20	04-14	6	10-07	10-12	5	174
青铜峡Qingtongxia	04-16	04-10	6	10-08	10-14	6	178
永宁Yongning	04-18	04-10	8	10-08	10-16	8	178
灵武Lingwu	04-17	04-11	6	10-06	10-11	5	176
中卫Zhongwei	04-19	04-09	10	10-06	10-14	8	176
中宁Zhongning	04-16	04-09	7	10-08	10-16	8	179
兴仁Xingren	05-04	04-15	19	09-29	10-05	6	153
海原Haiyuan	05-08	05-02	6	09-25	10-02	7	145
同心Tongxin	04-22	04-13	9	10-08	10-13	5	173
固原Guyuan	05-07	05-01	6	09-24	10-02	8	144
韦州Weizhou	04-24	04-12	12	10-08	10-08	0	171
平均值Average value	04-02	04-14	8	10-05	10-11	6	171

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