基于关键品质因素的砀山酥梨气候品质评价

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李德^1,,,
高超²,
孙义¹,
杨健³,
范孝玲³
1.安徽省宿州市气象局宿州 234000
2.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系宁波 315211
3.安徽省砀山县气象局砀山 235300
基金项目: 安徽省气象科技发展基金项目KM201607
国家自然科学基金项目41571018

详细信息

作者简介:李德, 主要从事农业气象服务与科研工作。E-mail:szlide@sohu.com

中图分类号:S162.5

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出版历程

收稿日期:2018-04-13
录用日期:2018-07-09
刊出日期:2018-12-01

A method for evaluating climate quality of Dangshansu pear using key quality factors

LI De^1,,,
GAO Chao²,
SUN Yi¹,
YANG Jian³,
FAN Xiaoling³
1. Suzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui, Suzhou 234000, China
2. Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
3. Dangshan Meteorological Office of Anhui, Dangshan 235300, China
Funds: the Meteorological Development Fund in Anhui ProvinceKM201607
the National Natural Science Foundation of China41571018

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Corresponding author:LI De, E-mail: szlide@sohu.com

摘要
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摘要
摘要:建立梨果气候品质评价方法是开展气候品质评价工作的技术基础。本研究选取1996—2015年原位监测的砀山酥梨（原产地砀山县）品质因素值和同期气象监测资料，根据相关研究成果和专家知识，采用相关分析、经验函数与阶梯函数、层次分析、逐步回归、概率分位数和加权之和等方法，在厘清关键品质因素和影响气象因子的基础上，建立砀山酥梨气候品质等级评价方法，并对气候品质进行评价。结果表明：决定砀山酥梨气候品质优劣的10个关键品质因素为果面完整度、果面锈度、果形指数、最大单果重、平均单果重、一级果率、等外果率、果实酥脆度、含糖率和石细胞度，关键气象影响因子28个。砀山酥梨气候品质由外观和内在气候品质指数加权之和后的气候品质综合指数表征，并划分为“特优”、“优”、“良”、“一般”4个等级，相应阈值为≥3.5、2.5~3.5、1.5~2.5、 < 1.5，外观与内在气候品质指数权重为0.70和0.30。构成外观气候品质指数的果面完整度、果面锈度、果形指数、最大单果重、平均单果重、一级果率、等外果率等7个因素的权重分别为0.376 1、0.232 8、0.108 8、0.074 9、0.088 6、0.088 7和0.029 9，构成内在气候品质指数的酥脆度、含糖率和石细胞度3个因素的权重分别为0.637 6、0.104 6和0.257 8。各品质因素由相应关键气象因子构建的量化模型表征。利用实测气象资料确定2016年砀山县9月下旬采摘的砀山酥梨气候品质综合指数为2.58，判定为“优”级，与实际相符。本研究建立的评价模型可作为砀山酥梨气候品质评价方法。
关键词:砀山酥梨/
关键品质因素/
气象因子/
气候品质指数
Abstract:Establishing methods for the evaluation of effects of climate on quality of pear fruit is the technical basis for assessing climate quality of fruits. This study used selected quality factors of Dangshansu pea for in situ monitoring and contemporaneous meteorological data in Dangshansu pear planting area for the period 1996-2015, and clarified the key quality factors of Dangshansu pear and the driving meteorological factors. Based on relevant research and expert knowledge, the correlation analyses, empirical functions and stepwise functions, ranked analyses, stepwise regressions, probability quantiles and weighted sums were used to establish the evaluating method of climatic effect on Dangshansu pear quality. The quality of Dangshansu pear was assessed by using the established method. The results showed that the ten key quality factors that reflected the climate quality of Dangshansu pear were fruit surface integrity, fruit surface rust, fruit shape index, maximum single fruit weight, average fruit weight, first-fruit rate, substandard fruit rate, fruit crispness, fruit sugar content and fruit stone cell degree. The 28 key meteorological factors determined the quality of Dangshansu pear. The climate quality of Dangshansu pear was characterized by composite index of climate quality which was the weighted sum of apparent climate quality index and intrinsic climate quality index. Climate quality was divided into four levels:extra excellent, excellent, good and general. The corresponding thresholds of comprehensive index of climate quality were ≥ 3.5, 2.5-3.5, 1.5-2.5 and < 1.5. The weights of apparent climate quality index and intrinsic climate quality index were 0.70 and 0.30, respectively. The weights of fruit surface integrity, fruit surface rust, fruit shape index, maximum single fruit weight, average fruit weight, first-fruit rate and substandard fruit rate that constituted the apparent quality index of climate quality index were 0.376 1, 0.232 8, 0.108 8, 0.074 9, 0.088 6, 0.088 7 and 0.029 9, respectively. The weights of crunchiness, sugar content and stone cell degree of fruits that comprised intrinsic climatic quality index were 0.637 6, 0.104 6 and 0.257 8, respectively. Each quality factor was described by a quantitative model constructed with corresponding key meteorological factors. The comprehensive index of climate quality of Dangshansu pear picked in late September in Dangshan County in 2016 was 2.58 — which was judged as "excellent" and consistent with actual conditions. The evaluation model established in this study was practicable for evaluating climate quality of Dangshansu pear.
Key words:Dangshansu pear/
Key quality factor/
Meteorological factor/
Climate quality index

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表1砀山酥梨关键品质因素等级阈值
Table1.Levels thresholds of the key quality factors of Dangshansu pear

品质因素 Quality factor	等级Level
品质因素 Quality factor	特优 Extra excellent	优 Excellent	良 Good	一般 General
果形指数 Fruit shape	< 0.975	0.975~0.998	0.998~1.020	> 1.020
最大单果重 Maximum fruit weight (g)	≥563.5	563.5~520.0	520.0~460.0	< 460.0
平均单果重 Average fruit weight (g)	≥261.0	261.0~239.0	239.0~217.5	< 217.5
一级果率 Fruit rate of the first grade (%)	≥53.0	53.0~39.0	39.0~25.0	< 21.5
等外果率 Substandard fruit rate (%)	< 5.0	5.0~10.5	10.5~15.5	≥15.5
含糖率 Fruit sugar content (%)	≥11.0	11.0~10.5	10.5~9.5	< 9.5
赋值Assignment	4	3	2	1

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表2气象条件影响砀山酥梨品质因素的逐步回归方程
Table2.Stepwise regression equations of meteorological conditions affecting the quality factors of Dangshansu pear

品质因素Quality factor (y)	回归方程Regression equation	R²	各影响因子的标准回归系数 Standardized regression coefficient of each factor
果形指数Fruit shape	y₃=1.235 5-0.000 4x₃₁-0.006 1x₃₂-0.009 3x₃₃-0.002 3x₃₆	0.713 0	-0.205 7, -0.244 1, -0.366 6, -0.173 4
最大单果重Maximum fruit weight	y₄=733.355 0-2.362 1x₄₁-16.667 8x₄₃-9.709 9x₄₄+5.340 8x₄₇	0.871 2	-0.370 6, -0.261 2, -0.427 0, 0.171 3
平均单果重Average fruit weight	y₅=193.354 0+15.107 3x₅₁-1.113 9x₅₃-1.275 0x₅₄-3.961 5x₅₇	0.852 0	0.498 2, -0.227 1, -0.249 8, -0.124 5
一级果率Fruit rate of the first grade	y₆=89.294 1-2.012 6x₆₁+5.710 2x₆₃-0.075 1x₆₄-1.223 1x₆₆	0.824 0	-0.460 9, 0.316 7, -0.226 1, -0.102 5
等外果率Substandard fruit rate	y₇=83.929 0-3.514 25x₇₁+0.022 9x₇₂-1.041 9x₇₄+0.113 8x₇₆	0.852 5	-0.406 2, 0.170 2, -0.273 3, 0.312 8
含糖率Fruit sugar content	y₉=16.531 3+0.006 4x₉₁-0.043 6x₉₃-0.283 7x₉₄-0.073 1x₉₆	0.887 2	0.385 2, -0.214 6, -0.380 4, -0.167 5
x₃₁: 7月上旬日照时数(h); x₃₂: 7月平均最高气温(℃); x₃₃: 4月下旬降雨日数(d); x₃₆: 7月平均气温(℃); x₄₁: 4月下旬空气相对湿度(%); x₄₃: 8月—9月上旬气温日较差(℃); x₄₄: 8月上中旬降雨日数(d); x₄₇: 7月上旬平均最高气温(℃); x₅₁: 5月中旬—6月中旬平均最低气温(℃); x₅₃: 4月下旬—6月上旬空气相对湿度(%); x₅₄: 7月上旬空气相对湿度(%); x₅₇: 8月—9月上旬气温日较差(℃); x₆₁: 7月上旬—8月中旬空气相对湿度(%); x₆₃: 5月中旬—6月下旬平均气温(℃); x₆₄: 7月上旬降水量(mm); x₆₆: 8月上旬降雨日数(d); x₇₁: 5月中旬—6月下旬平均最低气温(℃); x₇₂: 8月下旬降雨量(mm); x₇₄: 4月下旬平均最低气温(℃); x₇₆: 4月中旬降雨量(mm); x₉₁: 7—8月日照时数(h); x₉₃: 7月中旬空气相对湿度(%); x₉₄: 9月中旬—下旬平均最低气温(℃); x₉₆: 9月下旬降雨日数(d). x₃₁: sunshine hours during July 1st to 10th (h); x₃₂: mean maximum temperature of July (℃); x₃₃: number of rainy day during April 21st to 30th (d); x₃₆: average temperature of July (℃); x₄₁: mean relative humidity during April 21st to 30th (%); x₄₃: diurnal temperature range during August 1st to September 10th (℃); x₄₄: number of rainy day during August 1st to 20th (d); x₄₇: mean maximum temperature of July 1st to 10th (℃); x₅₁: mean minimum temperature during May 11st to June 20th (℃); x₅₃: mean relative humidity during April 21st to June 10th (%); x₅₄: mean relative humidity during July 1st to 10th (%); x₅₇: diurnal temperature range during August 1st to September 10th (℃); x₆₁: mean relative humidity during July 1st to August 20th (%); x₆₃: average temperature during May 11st to June 30th (℃); x₆₄: precipitation during July 1st to 10th (mm); x₆₆: number of rainy day during August 1st to 10th (d); x₇₁: mean minimum temperature during May 11st to June 30th (℃); x₇₂: precipitation during August 21st to 31st (mm); x₇₄: mean minimum temperature during April 21st to 30th (℃); x₇₆: precipitation during April 11st to 20th (mm); x₉₁: sunshine hours during July to August (h); x₉₃: mean relative humidity during July 11st to 20th (%); x₉₄: mean minimum temperature during September 11st to 30th (℃); x₉₆: number of rainy day during September 21st to 30th (d).

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表3冰雹、高温日数对砀山酥梨果面完整度的影响
Table3.Effects of hail and high temperature days on the completeness of Dangshansu pear

等级Level	冰雹与高温日数发生情况Occurrence of hail and high temperature days	赋值 Assignment
无 No	无雹灾, 且7—8月无高温热害即日最高气温≥35 ℃的连续日数 < 3 d。 There is no hail disaster, and there is no high temperature and heat damage from Jul. to Aug. The number of continuous days with maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃ is < 3.	4
轻微 Mild	无雹灾, 但7—8月出现连续日最高气温≥35 ℃日数为3~5 d。 There is no hail disaster. But from Jul. to Aug. the number of continuous days with maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃ is 3-5.	3
中度 Moderate	有1次雹灾或累计历时 < 2 min, 或7—8月出现连续日最高气温≥35 ℃日数为5~7 d, 赋值为2;另外:若雹灾与高温热害同时发生, 则下降1个等级, 赋值为1。 There is 1 hail disaster or cumulative duration < 2 minutes; or from Jul. to Aug. and the number of continuous days with maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃ is 5-7, which is assigned 2. If the hail disaster occurs at the same time as the high temperature and heat damage, it will drop by one level and assigned 1.	2
重度 Severe	有1次以上雹灾、历时≥2 min, 或7—8月出现连续日最高气温≥35 ℃日数7 d以上, 赋值为1;若同时发生, 也赋值为1。 There are more than one hail disaster with duration of ≥ 2 minutes, or the number of continuous days with maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃ is more than 7 d, which assigned 1. If they happen at the same time, assigned 1.	1

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表4降雨日数对砀山酥梨果面锈病斑度的影响
Table4.Effect of precipitation days on rust spot of Dangshansu pear

等级 Level	6月下旬—8月下旬降雨日数 Precipitation days during Jun. 21st to Aug. 31st (d)	赋值 Assignment	备注 Note
无 No	≤21.0	4	无锈斑 No rust spots
轻微 Mild	21.0~25.0	3	很少有锈斑 Very few of rust spots
中度 Moderate	25.0~29.0	2	有锈斑 Slight rust spots
重度 Severe	> 29.0	1	有较多锈斑 A lot of rust spots

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表5日照时数对砀山酥梨石细胞的影响
Table5.Effect of sunshine hours on stone cells of Dangshansu pear

等级Level	4月中旬—5月下旬日照时数 Sunshine hours during Apr. 11st to May 31st (h)	赋值 Assignment
重度Severe	≤338.5	1
中度Moderate	338.5~367.0	2
轻微Mild	367.0~395.5	3
无No	≥395.5	4

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表6降雨量对砀山酥梨酥脆度的影响
Table6.Influence of rainfall on crispness of Dangshansu pear

脆度等级 Level of crispness	降雨量Precipitation (mm)			赋值 Assignment
脆度等级 Level of crispness	8月中旬—9月上旬 Aug. 11st to Sep. 10th	8月中旬—9月中旬 Aug. 11st to Sep. 20th	8月中旬—9月下旬 Aug. 11st to Sep. 30th	赋值 Assignment
特优Extra excellent	115~150	150~170	170~195	4
优Excellent	85~115或or 150~190	110~50或or 170~210	130~170或or 195~265	3
良Good	55~85或or 190~220	80~110或or 210~240	100~130或or 235~265	2
一般General	≤55或or > 220	≤80或or > 240	≤100或or > 265	1

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表7砀山酥梨气候品质指数等级阈值
Table7.Classification standard of Dangshansu pear climate quality index

等级 Grade	特优 Extra excellent	优 Excellent	良 Good	一般 General
阈值 Threshold	≥3.5	2.5~3.5	1.5~2.5	< 1.5

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