刘春霞^1,,
王芳^2,,
1.许昌学院商学院 许昌 461000
2.吉林农业大学经济管理学院 长春 130118
基金项目: 许昌学院科研基金重点项目2017ZD019

详细信息

作者简介:刘春霞, 主要研究方向为农业资源环境与农村环境污染治理。E-mail:958987143@qq.com

通讯作者:王芳, 主要研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail:770810704@qq.com

中图分类号:F323

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收稿日期:2017-11-13
录用日期:2018-03-13
刊出日期:2018-08-01

Dynamic changes in arable land requirements for food consumption in China

LIU Chunxia^1,,
WANG Fang^2,,
1. College of Business, Xuchang University, Xuchang 461000, China
2. College of Economics & Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Funds: the Research Fund Major Project of Xuchang University2017ZD019

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Corresponding author:WANG Fang, E-mail:770810704@qq.com

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摘要
摘要:随着我国社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，我国居民食物消费水平和结构发生了较大变化，与食物消费密切相关的土地资源保障能力也越来越受到国际社会的广泛关注。因此，为了评价我国居民食物消费情况及其对农业土地资源需求的影响，本文依据FAO食物供给平衡数据，对中国居民1961-2013年的饮食模式变迁及其耕地需求长期动态变化进行了分析，并采用LMDI分解方法定量评价了人口、饮食模式及科技进步在不同时期对食物消费土地需求的影响。结果表明，中国居民由传统饮食模式转向消费越来越多的动物性食物和植物油等富裕型的食物消费模式；食物消费土地需求总体呈上升趋势，由1961年的1.05亿hm²·a^-1增加到2013年的1.75亿hm²·a^-1；食物消费土地需求的国外依赖性不断增强，这种依赖路径可能面临的全球粮食价格波动风险应引起高度警惕。LMDI分解结果显示，人口因素对土地需求的贡献效应不断减弱，科技进步并不能充分抵消人口增长和饮食模式改变带来的土地需求的增加，饮食模式已经成为影响我国食物消费土地需求的关键因素，并且这种影响在未来一段时间内仍将继续。
Abstract:With the development of China's social economy and improvement of living standard of the people, food consumption level and structure in the country have changed greatly. The ability to guarantee land resources, closely related with food consumption, has also attracted more attention in international community. Vast amounts of arable lands are needed to produce food, but land resources suitable for production of crops in China are very limited. Therefore, in order to evaluate food consumption and its impact on the demand of agricultural land resources in China, we first assessed the dynamic changes in arable land requirements for food consumption in China for the 1961-2013. Then we quantitatively examined the contributions of population growth, dietary change and technological change to land requirements for food (LRF) based on the LMDI decomposition model. The results indicated that dietary pattern of Chinese residents changed apparently to nutrient-rich from 1961 to 2013, people gradually consumed more animal food and vegetable oil other than traditional plant-based food. This induced obvious increment in LRF, which was 1.05×10⁸ hm²·a^-1 in 1961, 1.75×10⁸ hm²·a^-1 in 2013. China increasingly depended on imports to meet LRF according to the analysis of domestic production and import of food. Remarkably, this path of dependence risked the vulnerability to volatile global food prices. LMDI decomposition results revealed that population and dietary pattern were equal in contribution to LRF increase, while scientific and technological advancement contributed relatively less to decrease in LRF, which were not enough to make up for the increases in population and dietary change. And dietary change rather than the rapid growth of population had become the most critical variable determinant of LRF in China for the foreseeable future. Additionally, we found that the development in underlying factors of LRF was not often linear. Caution also seemed warranted in considerations of future LRF in China based on sequential trend assumptions. In summary, the LRF increased gradually from 1961 to 2013, and dietary pattern of China's residents was the key factor affecting LRF.

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图1食物消费土地需求计算流程图
Figure1.Flow chart of calculation of link food consumption to land requirements (LRF)


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图2中国居民七大类食物消费变化情况(1961—2013年)
Figure2.Changes in food consumption grouped into 7 categories in China from 1961 to 2013


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图3中国居民食物消费土地总需求(a)和人均需求(b)的变化(1961—2013年)
Figure3.Changes of total (a) and average per capita (b) land requirements for food consumption in China from 1961 to 2013


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图4中国居民食物消费土地需求进口份额变化(1961—2013)
Figure4.Share of the total national land requirements for food met by imports in China from 1961 to 2013


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图5各因素对中国居民食物消费土地需求的累积贡献(1961—2013年)
Figure5.Cumulative contributions of various factors to land requirements for food consumption (LRF) in China from 1961 to 2013


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表1中国居民食物消费土地需求LMDI乘法和加法分解结果(1961—2013年)
Table1.LMDI multiplicative decomposition and addition decomposition results of land requirement for food consumption in China from 1961 to 2013

乘法分解 Multiplicative decomposition	Dpop	Ddie	Dtec	Dtot
	1.975	2.026	0.376	1.504
加法分解 Additiondecomposition	ΔLpop	ΔLdie	ΔLtec	ΔLtot
	94.56	103.12	-141.28	56.39
下标pop、tec、die和tot分别表示人口规模、科技进步、饮食模式和3因素综合。Subscripts of “pop”, “tec”, “die” and “tot” mean factors of population, technology advance, dietary and accumulation of three factors.

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