摘要:农业污染日益严重背景下, 探究农业科技投入对农业生态效率的作用机制, 对缓解农村生态压力、农村健康发展具有重要现实意义。鉴于此, 本文在采用超效率SBM (super-efficiency slack-based measure)模型测度2000—2018年我国东中西部省际农业生态效率基础上, 根据莫兰指数对农业生态效率及农业科技投入进行空间自相关检验, 采用空间计量模型剖析农业科技投入对农业生态效率影响的空间溢出效应与门槛特征。结果表明, 2000—2018年东中西部的农业生态效率呈现东西部高、中部低的态势; 2000—2018年东中西部的农业生态效率波动明显, 2000—2003年有小幅波动, 2004—2008年农业生态效率略有下降, 2008—2010年稍有上升, 2010年农业生态效率为0.731; 之后2011—2014年稍有下降, 2015—2017年全国农业生态效率分别下降到0.5894、0.5839、0.5159; 2018年农业生态效率提升到0.5453。农村科技投入对农业生态效率影响呈现为“倒U”型, 农业科技投入规模对农业生态效率有着显著的溢出效应。东中西部分组面板门槛回归显示: 东中西部的农业科技投入门槛效应差别较大, 东部表现为正向促进作用, 中部农业科技投入对农业生态效率的积极作用没有东部稳定, 西部农业科技投入对农业生态效率表现为负向抑制作用, 中西部地区农业发展中的科技投入要兼顾经济与生态效率。为此, 我国要大力推广绿色高效技术模式, 积极采取有机肥替代化肥行动, 加快实施科学施肥用药技术, 抓好示范带动减量增效, 提高农业生态效率。
关键词:农业科技投入/
农业生态效率/
空间计量模型/
门槛效应
Abstract:With increasingly severe agricultural pollution, it is important to explore the effects of agricultural science and technology investments on agricultural ecological efficiency to alleviate rural ecological pressure and promote the healthy development of rural areas. This study used a super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model to measure the agricultural ecological efficiency of provinces in eastern, middle, and western China from 2000 to 2018. According to the Moran index, the spatial autocorrelation of agricultural ecological efficiency and agricultural science and technology input were analyzed. The spatial spillover effect and threshold characteristics of the impact of agricultural science and technology input on agricultural ecological efficiency were explored by using the spatial econometric model. Results showed that from 2000 to 2018, the agro-ecological efficiency was high in the eastern and western regions and low in the middle region. The agro-ecological efficiency in the eastern, middle, and western regions fluctuated significantly from 2000 to 2018, with slight fluctuations in 2000–2003. Agricultural ecological efficiency declined slightly from 2004 to 2008 and then rose slightly from 2008 to 2010. In 2010, the agricultural ecological efficiency was 0.731, after which it declined slightly from 2011 to 2014. From 2015 to 2017, the national agricultural ecological efficiency dropped to 0.5894, 0.5839, and 0.5159, respectively. In 2018, the annual agricultural ecological efficiency increased to 0.5453. The impact of rural science and technology investments on agricultural ecological efficiency presented as an inverted U-shape, and the scale of agricultural science and technology investments had a significant spillover effect on agricultural ecological efficiency. The panel threshold regression showed that the threshold effect of agricultural science and technology investments in the eastern, middle, and western regions in China differed, and that in the eastern region had a positive promoting effect. The positive effect of agricultural science and technology input on agricultural ecological efficiency in the middle region was not as stable as that in the eastern region. The input of agricultural science and technology in the western region harmed agricultural ecological efficiency. The scientific and technological input in the agricultural development of the middle and western regions of China should consider economic and ecological efficiency. Therefore, China should vigorously promote the green and efficient technology mode, actively replace chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers, accelerate the implementation of scientific fertilizer application techniques, pay close attention on demonstration, fertilizer reduction and fertilization efficiency, and improve agricultural ecological efficiency.
Key words:Agricultural science and technology investment/
Agricultural ecological efficiency/
Spatial econometric model/
Threshold effect
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