摘要:为了进一步明确江淮区域气候变化对两熟制粮食作物物候期及周年光温水资源分配与利用的影响，以安徽省12个农业气象观察站1992-2013年气象数据、作物生长发育期数据与产量数据为基础，采用线性趋势、相关分析、回归分析等方法，分析不同区域不同熟制作物物侯期变化趋势，以及气候变化对积温、辐射和降水资源分配与利用的影响。结果表明，1992-2013年沿淮淮北冬小麦-大豆种植模式，冬小麦播种期提前趋势显著（P < 0.05），平均每10 a提前3.03 d，成熟期变化不显著，全生育期平均每10 a增加3.54 d；大豆播种期和开花期则显著推迟（P < 0.05），平均每10 a推迟3.06 d和0.86 d，全生育期平均每10 a减少3.65 d。江淮冬小麦-一季稻模式，水稻播种期、抽穗期和成熟期均显著提前（P < 0.05），平均每10 a分别提前5.12 d、3.87 d和2.92 d，全生育增加2.2 d；小麦有同样的变化趋势，全生育期表现为每10 a缩短0.8 d。沿江江南双季早稻物候期变化不明显，全生育期每10 a缩短0.6 d；晚稻平均每10 a播种期推迟1.14 d，抽穗期与成熟期分别提前0.71 d和6.85 d，成熟期提前趋势显著（P < 0.01），全生育期每10 a缩短5.17 d。沿淮淮北冬小麦与江淮一季稻以及沿江早稻和晚稻生长季积温呈增加趋势，大豆与江淮冬小麦积温减少。沿淮淮北与江淮冬小麦及沿江早稻和晚稻生长季辐射呈增加趋势，大豆与一季稻则表现为减少。不同种植模式第1季作物冬小麦和早稻的降水均有减少趋势，而第2季作物大豆、一季稻和晚稻则呈增加趋势。冬小麦-一季稻种植模式周年光温水生产效率最高。线性回归分析表明，积温和辐射与沿淮淮北冬小麦和沿江双季稻的产量均呈显著线性正相关（P < 0.05），光温是提高其产量的主要限制因子。江淮一季稻积温过高和降水过多也限制产量提升。气候变化改变了两熟制粮食作物物侯期，进一步影响了光温水气候资源的分配与利用效率。通过改良品种、改变播栽时间、提高抗逆性等适应措施，可以在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生长的不利影响。
关键词:江淮区域/
两熟制/
物候期/
产量/
气候资源/
资源分配特征/
资源利用效率
Abstract:To examine the effects of climate change on the phenophases and annual climate resources distribution and utilization of major food crops under a double-cropping system in Anhui Province, this study analyzed variations in the phenophases of different cropping systems in different regions and the effects of climate change on distribution and utilization of accumulated temperature, radiation, and precipitation. The analyses included linear fitting, correlation analysis, and regression analysis and incorporated data of the daily average temperature, daily sunshine hours, and daily precipitation from 1992 to 2013 of twelve meteorological stations in the Jianghuai area. The results showed that the sowing date of winter wheat was significantly advanced (P < 0.05) by 3.03 days (d) per decade, on average, under the double-cropping system of winter wheat-soybean in the area along Huaihe River from 1992 to 2013. Changes in the maturity stage of winter wheat were not significant, but the average increase in the whole growth period was 3.54 d per decade. The soybean sowing date and flowering date were significantly delayed (P < 0.05) by 3.06 and 0.86 d per decade, respectively, and the average decrease in the whole growth period was 3.65 d per decade. For the double-cropping system of winter wheat-single rice in the Jianghuai region, the sowing date, heading date, and maturation date of rice were significantly advanced (P < 0.05) by 5.12, 3.87, and 2.92 d per decade, respectively; and the whole growth period increased by 2.20 d per decade Wheat showed the same trends as rice, though non-significant, and the whole growth period was shortened by 0.8 d per decade. For the double cropping rice, the change in phenophases for early rice was non-significant, and the whole growth period was shortened by 0.6 d per decade, on average. The sowing date of late rice was delayed by 1.14 d per decade, on average, whereas the heading date and maturation date were advanced by 0.71 and 6.85 d per decade, respectively. The advance of the maturation date was extremely significant (P < 0.01). The whole growth period of late rice was shortened by 5.17 d per decade. The accumulative temperature increased for winter wheat in Huaibei, single rice in Jianghuai, and double rice along the Yangtze River but decreased for soybean and winter wheat in Jianghuai. The radiation of winter wheat, early rice, and late rice increased, whereas that of soybean and single rice decreased. The precipitation of the first-season crops decreased, but that of the second-season crops increased. The climatic productivity of winter wheat-single rice planting patterns was the highest of all cropping systems. Linear regression analysis showed that the accumulative temperature and radiation were significantly positively correlated with the yield of double-cropping rice and winter wheat in Huaibei (P < 0.05), and radiation and temperature were the main limiting factors for further improvements to its production. Excessive temperature and precipitation of single-season rice in the Jianghuai region also limited yield improvements. Climate change has affected the phenophases of crops in double-cropping systems and influenced the allocation and utilization efficiency of climate resources. The adverse effects of climate change on crops can be offset by improving the varieties, changing the sowing dates, and enhancing stress tolerance.
Key words:Jianghuai region/
Double cropping system/
Crop phenophases/
Yield/
Climatic resources/
Resource distribution/
Resource use efficiency
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