摘要:为预估未来气候变暖背景下夏玉米花期高温灾害风险，根据河南省19个农业气象观测站夏玉米抽雄期常年观测资料和未来RCPs（representative concentration pathways）气候变化情景数据，构建夏玉米花期高温风险评价指标，开展河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害时空特征及风险演变分析。其中RCPs气候情景数据包括基准气候条件（1951-2005年，RCP-rf）和未来（2006-2050年）RCP 4.5（中）、RCP 8.5（高）两种浓度路径数据。以抽雄普遍期及之后7 d确定为夏玉米花期，并内插匹配气候情景格点数据。以花期最高气温≥ 32℃和≥ 35℃作为轻度和重度高温灾害发生阈值，根据轻、重度夏玉米花期高温发生频率和高温积害，建立风险评价指标并分级。结果表明，RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温发生频率在20.5%~81.0%（≥ 32℃）和3.9%~51.9%（≥ 35℃）。与基准条件相比，≥ 32℃高温发生频率增加9.1%（RCP 4.5）和11.0%（RCP 8.5），≥ 35℃高温发生频率增加8.7%（RCP 4.5）和8.3%（RCP 8.5）。RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温积害在48.5~200.9℃·d（≥ 32℃）和9.8~138.5℃·d（≥ 35℃）。与基准条件相比，≥ 32℃高温积害增加25.4℃·d（RCP 4.5）和25.6℃·d（RCP 8.5），≥ 35℃高温积害增加25.8℃·d（RCP 4.5）和31.4℃·d（RCP 8.5）。由综合风险分析可知，RCP-rf情景下夏玉米花期高温灾害高值风险区主要分布在新乡、郑州、许昌、漯河、周口及其以东以北的地区（商丘除外），约占夏玉米主栽区面积的30.1%；RCP 4.5情景下高值风险区扩大至洛阳和南阳以东的大部分地区，约占夏玉米主栽区面积的63.4%；RCP 8.5情景下高值风险区面积进一步向西扩大，约占夏玉米主栽区面积的占76.3%。
关键词:RCP气候情景/
气候变化/
夏玉米/
花期/
高温风险/
河南省
Abstract:To predict the risk of high temperature disasters during the summer maize flowering period under future climate change scenarios, a high temperature risk index was established based on the long-term observational data of the summer maize booting period from 19 agro-meteorological observational stations in Henan Province and future climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs). Based on the high temperature risk index, the spatio-temporal characteristics and risk of high temperature disasters during the summer maize flowering period were analyzed in Henan Province. The climate change scenarios (RCPs) included the baseline climate scenario (RCP-rf, 1951-2005) and two future climate change scenarios with moderate emission (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) during 2006-2050. The summer maize flowering period at each site was defined as the period from the booting stage to 7 days after booting, and then, it was interpolated into the whole province to match the gridded date of climate scenarios. The maximum temperature of higher than 32℃ and 35℃ during flowering were used as the threshold for occurrence of light and heavy high temperature disasters. A comprehensive risk index was successfully established, and the risk level was divided by integrating high temperature frequency and accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ and 35℃ during the summer maize flowering period. The results showed that under the RCP-rf scenario, the high temperature frequency during the summer maize flowering period was 20.5%-81.0% (≥ 32℃) and 3.9%-51.9% (≥ 35℃). Compared with the baseline, the frequency of high temperature days of more than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period increased by 9.1% (RCP 4.5) and 11.0% (RCP 8.5), and that of higher than 35℃ increased by 8.7% (RCP 4.5) and 8.3% (RCP 8.5). Under the RCP-rf scenario, the accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period ranged 48.5-200.9℃·d, and that of higher than 35℃ ranged 9.8-138.5℃·d. Compared with the baseline, the accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period increased by 25.4℃·d (RCP 4.5) and 25.6℃·d (RCP 8.5); and that of higher than 35℃ increased by 25.8℃·d (RCP 4.5) and 31.4℃·d (RCP 8.5). According to the comprehensive risk analysis of high temperature during the summer maize flowering period, the high-risk zones under RCP-rf scenario were distributed in the eastern and northern areas, which adjacent to Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, Xuchang, Luohe, and Zhoukou, except Shangqiu, accounting for approximately 30.1% of the main summer maize planting area. The high-risk areas covered most of the areas in the east of Luoyang and Nanyang, accounting for 63.4% of the main area of summer maize planting under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 76.3% of the main area of summer maize planting under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Key words:RCP scenarios/
Climate change/
Summer maize/
Flowing period/
High temperature risk/
Henan Province
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