人口老龄化、经济增长与社会福利——基于内生经济增长理论的分析
Population Aging,Economic Growth and Social Welfare——Analysis Based on the Endogenous Economic Growth Theory 武康平;倪宣明;殷俊茹; 1:清华大学经济管理学院经济系 2:北京大学金融与产业发展研究中心 摘要(Abstract)：

人口老龄化问题是经济和社会福利研究的重点之一,不能简单视为劳动人口比例的一次性下降,经典的增长理论中几乎没有老龄入口逐步增加这一动态过程。本文借助内生经济增长理论框架,尝试从学术上定义老龄化率,探究人口老龄化对经济增长和社会福利的影响。在一定的假设条件下,经济增长率最大化和社会福利最大化一致,且经济能够容许老龄化率的存在,此时老龄化率对经济运行负影响。政府应利用财政、税收等政策实现经济增长和社会福利的最大化,同时利用人口政策控制老龄化率,使人口增长率与劳动人口增长率相一致,降低人口老龄化的负面影响。但当放宽假设条件时,会出现经济增长率最大化与社会福利最大化不一致的情形,政府面临多重目标选择难题,不同目标对应的最优政策不一样。同时,经济中的老龄人口由于拥有较高的人力资本,尽管不能参加体力劳动,但可以创造知识,提高企业的生产效率,在一定条件下,适度的老龄化率的经济增长和社会福利是有益的。因此政府应综合使用财政、税收、人口等政策,创造有利于提高经济增长和社会福利的环境条件,引导市场资本和人才参与老龄产业和老龄服务业的发展,积极应对人口老龄化问题。在微观干预路径的选择上,可采用"政府参与、市场化运作"间接干预模式,积极打造服务型政府。基于技术创新在经济增长和社会福利方面的重要性,政府可采用上限收益率、私人投资承保等多种激励措施,利用政府引导基金,搭建私人资本和投资经理共同参与的平台,提高老龄产品研发所需的资本供给,从而提高老龄产业的技术能力,有效解决人口老龄化问题。

关键词(KeyWords)： 人口老龄化;;经济增长;;社会福利;;内生经济增长

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作者(Author): 武康平;倪宣明;殷俊茹;

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