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| 公路与铁路交通碳排放影响因素 |
| 张宏钧1,2, 王利宁1,2, 陈文颖1,2 |
1. 清华大学 现代管理中心, 北京 100084;
2. 清华大学 能源环境经济研究所, 北京 100084 |
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| Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from road and rail transport systems |
| ZHANG Hongjun1,2, WANG Lining1,2, CHEN Wenying1,2 |
1. Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Beijing 100084, China |
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| 摘要为了探究公路与铁路交通CO2排放的影响因素及其贡献率，该文建立了基于贡献率的残值分配Laspeyres指数分解方法（contribution-based residual distribution Laspeyres index，CRDLI），并选取了中国和其他6个国家为研究对象，构建了公路与铁路CO2排放的二次分解模型。研究发现：周转量是影响各国公路与铁路CO2排放的重要因素，1991—2010年，中国、澳大利亚、德国、日本、印度、英国和美国换算周转量引起的CO2排放量变化分别为4.02、0.65、0.60、-0.12、2.33、0.24和4.84亿t；能耗强度和能源结构的改善是实现减缓CO2排放增长或减少CO2排放的重要途径；人均GDP的增长是推动公路与铁路周转量增长的最主要原因，降低周转量强度是减缓周转量上升进而减少CO2排放的重要途径。为了实现中国交通部门的低碳发展，需要发掘技术节能潜力、调整运输结构、有效管理运输需求。 |
| 关键词 ：碳排放,指数分解,低碳交通,公路交通,铁路交通 |
| Abstract：The road and rail transport sectors are important sources of CO2 emissions. A contribution-based residual distribution Laspeyres index (CRDLI) was developed to analyze the CO2 emissions from road and rail transport systems in China and six other countries. Transport turnover has an important influence on CO2 emissions, while energy intensity and energy structure are keys to mitigating CO2 emissions. GDP per capita is the main driver that increases transport turnover with reducing the turnover rate caused by GDP increases an important way to slow the increase in the transport turnover and further reduce CO2 emissions. |
| Key words：carbon emissionsindex decompositionlow-carbon transportroad transportrail transport |
| 收稿日期: 2015-12-02 出版日期: 2017-04-19 |
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| 通讯作者:陈文颖,研究员,E-mail：Chenwy@tsinghua.edu.cnE-mail: Chenwy@tsinghua.edu.cn |
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