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| 摘要公私合作制（public-private partnership，PPP）项目的股权配置直接影响着风险和收益在各项目干系人之间的分配，科学合理的股权配置决策模型对于确保项目的成功至关重要。该文首先归纳分析了PPP项目股权配置决策中各项目干系人的决策原则。根据这些原则和PPP项目融资的特点，在债权人、私人部门和公共部门三方主要项目干系人满意的约束条件下，构建了一个寻求项目社会成本最低的股权配置模型。其次，使用遗传算法对模型的最优股权配置进行了求解，并在适应度函数的计算中引入MonteCarlo模拟对项目收益和成本的关键影响因素进行了仿真，加入免疫记忆细胞提高了算法的收敛性。最后，根据某轨道交通PPP项目的案例对模型进行了验证。结果表明：该研究提出的建模与仿真方法可为类似项目中的股权配置决策提供参考。 |
| 关键词 ：公私合作制(PPP),股权结构,遗传算法,Monte Carlo模拟 |
| Abstract：The equity structure of a public-private partnership (PPP) project directly affects the allocation of risk and interest among the project stakeholders. A reasonable equity allocation decision making model is important for a project's success. This paper first analyzes the equity allocation decision making principles of the main stakeholders. These principles and project financing characteristic were then used to define an optimization model to minimize a PPP projects' social costs while satisfying the objectives of the key PPP stakeholders, i.e., the debtors, the private companies and the governments. A genetic algorithm is used to solve the decision making problem with a Monte Carlo model to simulate the changes in the project revenues with an immunological memory cell to improve the algorithm convergence. The model is validated by companies with an actual urban rail transport project. The model can be used to provide reference data for public and/or private entities for equity structure decision making for other PPP projects. |
| Key words：public-private partnership (PPP)equity structuregenetic algorithmMonte Carlo simulation |
| 收稿日期: 2015-06-14 出版日期: 2017-04-19 |
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| 通讯作者:王守清,教授,E-mail：sqwang@tsinghua.edu.cnE-mail: sqwang@tsinghua.edu.cn |
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