| 大规模传染病传播围堵策略的模拟研究 |
| 倪顺江, 翁文国, 张辉 |
| 清华大学 工程物理系, 公共安全研究院, 北京 100084 |
| Simulation of strategies for large-scale spread containment of infectious diseases |
| NI Shunjiang, WENG Wenguo, ZHANG Hui |
| Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
摘要:
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| 摘要该文研究了4种典型的围堵策略: 隔离治疗、接触追踪、预防治疗和免疫接种等对传染病传播过程的影响。首先建立了一个基于复杂网络理论和个体模拟的大规模传染病传播模型, 然后将上述围堵策略对模型参数的影响进行量化, 从而得到围堵策略作用下的传染病传播模型。模拟结果显示: 这些围堵策略均能够有效抑制传染病的传播, 而通过各种围堵策略的优化组合, 可以显著降低围堵策略的实施成本。研究结果可为公共卫生部门在传染病的预防和控制的科学决策中提供参考。 | |||
| 关键词 ：大规模传染病传播,传染病建模,围堵策略,复杂网络 | |||
| Abstract：This paper investigates the inhibitory effects of four typical containment strategies, including quarantine, contact tracing, antiviral prophylaxis and vaccination, on the transmission process of infectious diseases. A large-scale individual-based simulation model for the spread of infectious diseases was built based on the complex network theory, with the containment strategies mentioned above then introduced into the model by quantifying the model parameters to rebuild an epidemic model. Simulation results show that these containment strategies can effectively inhibit the spread of infectious diseases, with the implementation cost significantly reduced through optimal combination of the containment strategies. The results can generate insights into scientific decision-making in the prevention and control of infectious disease spread for the public health sector. | |||
| Key words：large-scale epidemic spreadingepidemic modelingcontainment strategycomplex network | |||
| 收稿日期: 2011-05-25 出版日期: 2016-01-29 | |||
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| 引用本文: |
| 倪顺江, 翁文国, 张辉. 大规模传染病传播围堵策略的模拟研究[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2016, 56(1): 97-101. NI Shunjiang, WENG Wenguo, ZHANG Hui. Simulation of strategies for large-scale spread containment of infectious diseases. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2016, 56(1): 97-101. |
| 链接本文: |
| http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.23.014或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2016/V56/I1/97 |
图表:
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| 图1 基于铁路和民航网络的大规模传染病传播模型 |
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| 图2 考虑围堵策略的SEIR 传播模型示意图 |
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| 图3 隔离治疗+接触追踪对传播过程的影响 |
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| 图4 在隔离治疗+接触追踪的基础上不同比例的预防治疗对传播过程的影响 |
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| 图5 在隔离治疗+接触追踪+预防治疗的基础上不同免疫接种策略对传播过程的影响 |
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| 图6 在隔离治疗+接触追踪+预防治疗的基础上不同比例的免疫接种对传播过程的影响 |
参考文献:
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