基于搜寻匹配模型的住房限购政策效果仿真与评价

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清华大学辅仁网/2017-07-07

张红^1,²(

),李洋^1,²,陈玄冰^1,²

2. 清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京 100084

Simulation and evaluation of the home-purchase limit policy effect based on a search-matching model

Hong ZHANG^1,²(

),Yang LI^1,²,Xuanbing CHEN^1,²

1. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China
2. Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development,Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

摘要:

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摘要为评价住房限购政策效果,该文构建住房市场搜寻匹配模型,将交易市场和租赁市场纳入统一的研究框架,数值仿真了限购政策约束下家庭租买选择与住房价格之间的动态关系。结果表明:在限购住房市场中,房租对需求冲击的响应比房价更敏感,房租水平在短期内将快速上升,并大幅提高租金收益率。可见,限购政策通过冻结部分购房需求抑制当期房价上涨,但是需求冲击会推动房租的上涨,并通过租金收益率对资产价格的传导作用提高房价。据此建议,应及时采用市场化的经济调控手段替代强制性行政干预政策,从而长期稳定市场预期和房价波动。

关键词 ：搜寻匹配模型,住房限购政策,家庭租买选择,房价,数值仿真

Abstract：A search-matching model of the housing market was constructed with an ownership market and rental market consolidated into a unified research framework to evaluate the effect of the home-purchase limit policy. Numerical simulations were used to model the dynamic relationship between the household tenure choice and housing price volatility under the home-purchase limit policy. The results show that, in a housing market restricted by the purchase limit policy, the rent is more sensitive than the price to demand shock, with the rent immediately rising to increase the rental return. Thus, housing price growth can be restrained in the current period by freezing the housing demand, but the demand shock will still drive up the rent with further increases in the housing price through the rental return in subsequent periods. Accordingly, this mandatory administrative policy should be replaced by market-oriented economic measures, so that unrealistic market expectations and housing prices can be stabilized in the long run.

Key words：search-matching model home-purchase limit policy household tenure choice housing price numerical simulations

收稿日期: 2013-12-27 出版日期: 2015-05-15

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143)

引用本文:

张红,李洋,陈玄冰. 基于搜寻匹配模型的住房限购政策效果仿真与评价[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(1): 68-73.
Hong ZHANG,Yang LI,Xuanbing CHEN. Simulation and evaluation of the home-purchase limit policy effect based on a search-matching model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 68-73.

链接本文:

http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I1/68

图表:

参数	定义	取值
H	住房数量	2
N	家庭数量	1.7
UH	自住家庭的住房效用	0.0864
UR	租住家庭的住房效用	0
α	工资收入	1
β	贴现率	0.9453
λ	购房人的议价能力	0.5
ρ	匹配函数的常数项	0.1649
μ	购房人的弹性系数	0.5
m_H	自住家庭的迁移概率	0.04
m_R	租住家庭的迁移概率	0.25

模型参数值设定

变量	定义	均衡解
η_R	租住家庭数量	0.350
η_H	自住家庭数量	0.500
η_V	空置房数量	0.150
η_FR	待出租房屋数量	0.350
η_FS	待出售房屋数量	0.056
M	匹配数量	0.020
φ	买方的匹配概率	0.076
θ	卖方的匹配概率	0.357
p	房价	4.040
r	房租	0.201
VR	租住家庭价值	14.960
VH	自住家庭价值	19.361
VW	空置房价值	3.678

变量的稳态均衡解

租住家庭数量对需求冲击的响应

自住家庭数量对需求冲击的响应

房租变化率对需求冲击的响应

房价变化率对需求冲击的响应

租金收益率对需求冲击的响应

参考文献:

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