摘要:海岸带是人类聚居和海洋资源开发利用的重点区域。海岸带城市综合生态承载力体现了海岸带生态系统对人类社会经济活动的承受能力，是判断海岸带城市生态系统健康程度和制定海岸带环境管理政策的重要依据。基于"压力（P）-状态（S）-响应（R）"概念模型，以连云港市为例，构建海岸带综合生态承载力评价指标体系，并对2005-2014年间连云港市的综合生态承载力进行评价。结果显示：连云港市海岸带综合生态承载力呈现逻辑斯蒂式波动上升趋势，2005-2007年处于超载状态，2008-2011年基本处于平衡状态，2012年后处于可载状态。对影响承载力的主要因素进行贡献度分析的结果表明：负向指标中，海岸带环境压力大于人口压力；正向指标中，海岸带经济发展水平及科技支撑条件的贡献呈上升趋势，海岸带可利用资源波动下降。结合相关分析和因子分析，得出海岸带环境压力、科技支撑条件及经济发展水平是制约综合承载力的关键因素。研究结果对海岸带地区环境管理及可持续发展政策制定具有重要意义。



Abstract:Coastal cities are key areas for human settlement and exploitation of marine resources. With human activities extended to the sea, the coastal ecosystem has been affected to a certain extent. The comprehensive coastal ecological carrying capacity (CECC) reflects the integrated impacts of environmental, economic and social activities on coastal ecosystems, which is very important for evaluating coastal ecosystem health and formulating environmental management policies. We applied "pressure(P)-state(S)-response(R)" conceptual model to construct a comprehensive assessment index system for measuring ecological carrying capacity. Combing the Entropy value method with Delphi method for weighing the indicators, together with space-state model, we calculated the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity (CECC) of Lianyungang City from 2005 to 2014. Results showed that: (1) The comprehensive ecological carrying capacity in Lianyungang City has been increasing with fluctuation, from 0.374-0.831, with an annual growth rate of 10.47%. (2) The comprehensive ecological carrying capacity was overloaded from 2005 to 2007, in a state of equilibrium from 2008 to 2011, and below the limits after 2012. In addition, using the contribution ratio analysis of different factors, their contributions to the comprehensive carrying capacity were also estimated:(1) The contribution of coastal environmental pressure was more significant than population growth. (2) The coastal resource availability fell from 32.08% to 9.84%. (3) The coastal zone economic development, social and technology support were on the rise as a whole. Through correlation analysis and factor analysis, we found that the coastal environmental pressure, technological support and economic development were the key factors restricting the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity. The assessment results can be used as a scientific basis for formulation of long-term coastal sustainable development plans and environmental management policies.





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