摘要:农户是生态治理政策的"践行者"，也是政策效果的"检验者"，其满意度对政策的可持续实施至关重要。基于甘肃省沙化土地封禁保护区周边1417份农户调查数据，运用帕累托分析方法和Ordered Logit模型，就沙化土地封禁保护政策的农户满意度及影响因素展开分析。研究结果表明：沙化土地封禁保护政策的农户总体满意度介于"一般"和"满意"之间，均值为3.67（"非常满意"为5）；外部影响因素分析表明，政策实施效果中风沙危害削减程度、荒漠化逆转程度、家庭收入提升状况、破坏行为减少程度与农户满意度之间存在正相关性；生态变化感知中的风沙强度、水资源紧缺程度对农户满意度起负向作用，降雨（雪）次数变化、荒漠植被盖度对农户满意度起正向作用。农户内部自身因素中，家庭人均收入、耕地、政府补贴、性别、教育程度、健康状况与农户满意度均通过显著性检验。控制变量因素中地方政府治理重视程度与农户满意度呈正相关性，平原地区的农户满意度明显高于山区。从政策角度看，农户生计改善是未来沙化土地封禁保护政策成功实施的关键保障。



Abstract:Peasant is the "practitioner" of ecology governance policy, and also the "inspector" of policy execution effect, whose satisfaction is essential to the sustainability of the policy implementation. In total, 1417 peasants were investigated around the perimeter of desertification land enclosed and desertification land sealed protection area of 14 pilot cities and counties in Gansu Province. Using Pareto analysis method and Ordered Logit model, this article analyzed the peasants' satisfaction and its influence factors of the national protection policy in the enclosed and forbidden reserves of desertification land. The analysis on externally influential factors indicated that peasant satisfaction with the national enclosed and forbidden reserves of desertification land protection policy was between "being ordinary" and "being satisfied" with average value of 3.67 (great satisfaction value with 5). There were positive correlations between aeolian sandy soil hazard alleviation degree, conversion level of desertification, improvement condition of family income, damage behavior reduction level and the peasants' satisfaction. In the ecological variation perception, aeolian sandy soil intention, water resource shortage level plays negative role, and variation of raining or snowing times, coverage level of desertification plants played the positive role. There were positive correlations between family average income per capital, ploughing, the governmental allowance, gender, education level, health conditions among peasant internal factors and peasants' satisfaction. The importance level paid to governance by local government among the controlled variable factors had the positive correlation with peasants' satisfaction. The satisfaction of peasants in plains was significantly higher than that of peasants in mountains. Where male in high education level and good health status resided with more attention given by local government, the satisfaction level of peasants was higher, and satisfaction of plain area was significantly higher than mountain area. Due to the difference between family planning type and income level, relatively big difference existed in the factors influencing peasant policy satisfaction. From policy point of view, paying attention to improvement of peasants' livelihood is the key for the successful fulfillment of future's desertification land sealed protection policy.





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