摘要:探究自然环境和人类活动影响下的河流水环境变化，对于流域水资源管理和保护有重要意义。目前从较长时间尺度上系统开展拉萨河流域水环境的研究较少，基于拉萨河流域达孜、卡林、才纳3个环境监测中心站近20年（1995-2014）的水质资料，综合单因子指数法和内梅罗指数法评估拉萨河流域水环境状况，并采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析其多年变化趋势。同时，从经济社会和自然环境两个方面通过灰色关联分析法识别了影响流域水环境变化的关键驱动因子，以期为流域水环境保护提供借鉴。结果表明：（1）总体上，拉萨河流域水环境状况良好，满足水功能区要求；（2）水体中pH、溶解氧、化学需氧量、总磷等指标的取值较高，在0.7左右，是拉萨河流域水环境需重点关注指标；（3）水环境质量稍有下降，内梅罗指数从1995年的0.62增加到2014年的0.73；（4）近20年来拉萨河流域水环境变化的主要驱动因子为降水量、牲畜存栏数、人口数、农村人口数和国民经济生产总值等，农牧非点源污染是拉萨河流域的主要污染源，要重点关注和管控。



Abstract:Studying the influence of the natural environment and human activities on river water environment is of great significance for the management and protection of river basin water resources. Systematic and long-term research on water environment of the Lhasa River Basin is needed to provide necessary technical support for scientific decision-making. Based on the water quality data of three environmental monitoring stations in the Lhasa River Basin (Dazi, Kalin, and Caina) over the past 20 years (1995-2014), the single factor index method and the Nemerow index method were applied to assess the water environment. The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the multi-year trends of the water environment. Further, the key driving factors affecting change in the water environment of the river basin were identified from the economic, social, and natural environment using the grey correlation analysis method, which can provide a reference for protection of the watershed water environment. The results showed that:(1) the overall water quality at the three environmental monitoring stations was in good condition and met the requirements of the water function zone; (2) the index of pH, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, and total phosphorus was about 0.7 (higher than other indexes), and could be the main indexes affecting the water environment in Lhasa River Basin; (3) the water environment of the Lhasa River basin was in good condition with a certain degree of a downward trend, and the Nemerow index increased from 0.62 in 1995 to 0.73 in 2014; (4) The water environment has changed in the Lhasa River basin in the past 20 years, and was mainly affected by precipitation, livestock stock population, rural population, and GDP. The main source of pollution in the Lhasa River basin was non-point source pollution from rural areas and agriculture, which should be focused on and controlled in the future.





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