摘要:产量因子和均衡因子是生态足迹模型的关键参数，评估其取值的不确定性对完善生态足迹核算模型具有重要意义。以牛栏江流域为例，应用生态足迹模型评估了2014年整个流域及流域内11个区县的生态足迹与生态承载力，通过计算本土产量因子并与国内外常用值对比，进行流域生态足迹不确定性分析。研究结果表明：2014年牛栏江流域生态足迹为3521404 ghm²（全球公顷），可利用生物承载力为2338535 ghm²，处于不可持续发展状态，其中官渡区生态超载率最高。不同研究中均衡因子、产量因子取值差异较大，其中耕地的均衡因子最大值是最小值的4.16倍，草地的产量因子最大值是最小值的4.16倍；采用均衡因子和产量因子最大值计算所得流域生态足迹、生态承载力，生态赤字分别是最小值的2.5倍、3.9倍、1.4倍。由于牛栏江流域特殊的气候和地形以及畜牧业、渔业发展程度低，因此计算生态足迹时需要进行详细的分类，不能简单的采用全球及全国的因子。



Abstract:The yield and the equivalence factor are key parameters of the ecological footprint model. It is significant to evaluate the values' uncertainties to improve the ecological footprint model. Using the Niulanjiang Watershed as a case study, this study assessed the ecological footprint and capacity of the whole watershed and its 11 counties separately through the ecological footprint model. The local yield factor was calculated and compared with the most-often used values from around the world to estimate the uncertainty of the model. The results showed that the ecological footprint of the Niulanjiang Watershed is 3521404 ghm², and the biological capacity is 2338535 ghm², indicating unsustainability. Guandu County occupies the largest ecological overshoot among the counties in the watershed. The equivalence and yield factors vary greatly in different studies. The maximum equivalence factor of cropland was 4.16 times that of the minimum, and the maximum yield factor of grassland was 4.16 times that of the minimum. The estimated ecological footprint, capacity, and overshoot using the maximum equivalence and yield factor were 2.5 times, 3.9 times, and 1.4 times those using the minimum respectively. Due to its special climate and topography, and the low level of development of animal husbandry and fisheries, the ecological footprint of Niulanjiang Watershed needs to be classified in detail; global and national factors cannot be applied directly.





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