袁明俊2,
王德高3,
赵彦彪1,
胡琨2,
钱振华1,
高利生1,
郑珲1,,
1. 公安部物证鉴定中心, 北京 100038;
2. 山东省德州市公安局物证鉴定研究中心, 德州 253015;
3. 大连海事大学环境科学与工程学院, 大连 116026
作者简介: 郑晓雨(1988-),男,博士,副研究员,研究方向为毒品检验分析,E-mail:454096756@qq.com.
通讯作者: 郑珲,xyzhengcn@cifs.gov.cn
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（21806022）；中央级科研院所基本科研业务费（2018JB042）中图分类号: X171.5
Sewage Epidemiology for Drug Situation Assessment
Zheng Xiaoyu1,2,Yuan Mingjun2,
Wang Degao3,
Zhao Yanbiao1,
Hu Kun2,
Qian Zhenhua1,
Gao Lisheng1,
Zheng Hui1,,
1. Institute of Forensic Science, Ministry of Public Security, Beijing 100038, China;
2. Material Evidence Authentication and Research Center of Dezhou Public Security Bureau of Shandong Province, Dezhou 253015, China;
3. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Corresponding author: Zheng Hui,xyzhengcn@cifs.gov.cn
CLC number: X171.5
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摘要:毒情研判是区域性毒情形势的重要衡量方法，一直都是禁毒领域关注的热点和难点。利用污水流行病学建立了以污水样品采集、研究对象稳定性、前处理及分析、校正因子、人口数量和不确定度等为影响因素的数学模型对毒品区域流行趋势、滥用量、合成路线研判及新精神活性物质查缉管控等方面进行毒情研判，具有便捷、客观和实时监测等优势。结合当前研究中滥用量准确度、环境样本种类、范围有限和技术手段等方面存在的问题，指出数学模型的完善以及基于高分辨的非靶向和拟靶向分析技术的优化将成为污水流行病学在毒情研判领域的发展趋势。
关键词: 毒品/
新精神活性物质/
污水流行病学/
毒情研判
Abstract:As an important method for evaluating the drug situation, accurate analysis and assessment have been all along the focus and challenge in the field of drug control. Owing to the particularity of drug crime, it is hard to accurately assess the invisible drug situation. With the advantages of high efficiency, convenience, objectivity and nearly-real time, the forensic epidemiology-based drug situation analysis and assessment models have attracted increasing attention and were extensively applied for estimating the amount of abuse, the population of abuse and drug synthesis as well as the control of new psychoactive substances in recent years. This work reviewed the progress in this research field and the existing problems. The optimization of the mathematical models and analysis techniques are proposed as the focus in the field of forensic epidemiology-based drug situation analysis and assessment in the future.
Key words:illicit drug/
new psychoactive substance/
sewage epidemiology/
drug situation assessment.
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