朱美霖¹,
杨晓莉²,
赵建明²,
于永军²,
田锋²,
朱新忠^3,,
1. 宁夏医科大学基础医学院, 银川 750004;
2. 宁夏医科大学临床医学院, 银川 750004;
3. 宁夏农林科学院固原分院, 草畜资源开发与利用研究中心, 固原 756000

作者简介: 朱美霖(1987-),女,副教授,研究方向为环境中危险化学物质的健康危害,E-mail:jay70281@163.com.

通讯作者: 朱新忠,zhuxinzhong1962@163.com

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（21667023）；宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目（2019BFG02020）；宁夏卫生计生委科研项目（2016-NW-006）


中图分类号: X171.5

Health Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis Based on Heavy Metals Exposure by Drinking Water in Ningxia Rural Areas

Zhu Meilin¹,
Yang Xiaoli²,
Zhao Jianming²,
Yu Yongjun²,
Tian Feng²,
Zhu Xinzhong^3,,
1. College of Basic Medical Sciences, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, China;
2. Clinical College, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, China;
3. Research Center of Development and Utilization of Grass and Livestock Resources, Ningxia Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences Guyuan Branch, Guyuan 756000, China

Corresponding author: Zhu Xinzhong,zhuxinzhong1962@163.com

CLC number: X171.5

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摘要:确定宁夏农村饮用水中重金属浓度，对保障宁夏居民饮水健康具有重要的意义。通过对宁夏回族自治区5个村镇饮用水采样调研，采用电感耦合等离子体-原子发射光谱（ICP-AES）法分析饮用水中5种常见重金属（砷、铬、镉、铅和铜）的浓度，并与我国《生活饮用水卫生标准》相比较，计算超标率；通过健康风险评估模型系统评价居民基于重金属污染的健康风险，进一步通过不确定性分析风险概率及敏感性。结果表明，5个采样点饮用水中砷元素均有超标现象（超标率<20%），其他4种重金属均未超标；5个样点饮用水中重金属单独暴露或共同暴露均不产生非致癌风险，但是砷元素所引起的致癌风险均超过美国环境保护局（US EPA）推荐的最大可接受风险水平10^-4；不确定性分析中，概率评估结果显示对>90%的居民不存在非致癌风险，而对50%以上居民的致癌风险大于最大可接受风险水平；敏感性分析结果显示，非致癌风险中砷浓度和日摄入量为最敏感的2个参数，而致癌风险中砷浓度为最敏感参数。
关键词: 重金属/
饮用水/
健康风险/
不确定性分析/
概率评估

Abstract:Determining the heavy metal concentration of drinking water in Ningxia rural areas is of significance in ensuring drinking water security for inhabitants. In this study, we collected drinking water from five different villages and analyzed the concentrations of five common heavy metals (arsenic, chromium, cadmium, lead and copper) using inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) method. Exceeding ratio was calculated by comparing with "hygienic standard for drinking water" in China. Based on health risk model, health risk was evaluated, and probability assessment and sensitivity analysis were taken by uncertainty analysis. Results showed that arsenic concentrations of less than 20% of the samples in five sampling sites exceeded the standard, while the concentrations of other four heavy metals not. The five metals could not cause obvious non-carcinogenic risk in each sampling site no matter individual risk or combined risk, while arsenic could increase carcinogenic risk due to its risk value over the maximum acceptable level set by United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) (10^-4). In uncertainty analysis, probability assessment results indicated that more than 90% of the population had no non-carcinogenic risk, but more than 50% of residents might have carcinogenic risk which exceeded the acceptable level; sensitivity analysis results suggested arsenic concentration and daily intake were the most sensitive factors in non-carcinogenic risk, and arsenic concentration was the key factor in carcinogenic risk.
Key words:heavy metals/
drinking water/
health risk/
uncertainty analysis/
probability assessment.

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