刘龙飞^1,2， 姬忠礼^1,2*， 栾 鑫^1,2

1. 中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院，北京 1022492. 中国石油大学(北京)过程流体过滤与分离技术北京市重点实验室，北京 102249

收稿日期:2018-04-17修回日期:2018-06-04出版日期:2019-02-22发布日期:2019-02-12
通讯作者:刘龙飞

基金资助:国家重点研发计划

Performance degradation model and prediction method of real-time remaining life for high temperature ceramic filter tube

Longfei LIU^1,2, Zhongli JI^1,2*, Xin LUAN^1,2

1. Department of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China 2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Process Fluid Filtration and Separation, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Received:2018-04-17Revised:2018-06-04Online:2019-02-22Published:2019-02-12


Supported by:National Key R&D Program of China

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 高温陶瓷过滤管由内部孔径较大的支撑体和外部孔径较小的过滤膜双层结构构成，在实际应用中，存在大量粒径较小的粉尘颗粒，会穿过过滤膜沉积到支撑体内部，脉冲反吹无法有效清除. 因支撑体内颗粒沉积及管壁外残余粉尘层不断压缩，使陶瓷过滤管渗透率不断下降，残余压降逐渐增加。本工作基于高温陶瓷过滤管壁内颗粒沉积特性及残余粉尘层压缩不可直接观测的特点，结合贝叶斯估计理论，利用过滤管运行期间采集的残余压降数据，提出一种基于状态空间模型的过滤管性能退化建模方法。该方法能融入最新采集到的残余压降数据，实时对模型参数进行更新，可对陶瓷过滤管的剩余寿命进行实时预测，同时对陶瓷过滤管剩余寿命的失效概率密度分布及陶瓷过滤管的退化状态变化率进行预测。对某高温试验装置及壳牌煤气化装置中的陶瓷过滤管残余压降分析表明，预测剩余寿命准确率随残余压降数据增加而逐渐增加，后期预测准确率高于95%，且陶瓷过滤管退化状态变化率逐渐变小，与陶瓷过滤管残余压降前期增加快后期增加慢的现象一致。

引用本文

刘龙飞 姬忠礼 栾鑫. 高温陶瓷过滤管性能退化建模及实时寿命预测[J]. 过程工程学报, 2019, 19(1): 165-172.
Longfei LIU Zhongli JI Xin LUAN. Performance degradation model and prediction method of real-time remaining life for high temperature ceramic filter tube[J]. Chin. J. Process Eng., 2019, 19(1): 165-172.

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[1]	杨亮姬忠礼赖通. 行列式刚性陶瓷过滤器脉冲反吹系统中的压力特性[J]. , 2014, 14(2): 181-188.

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