, 陈航航Participation in global production networks and export product upgrading
HECanfei, CHENHanghang收稿日期:2016-08-12
修回日期:2017-03-13
网络出版日期:2017-08-20
版权声明:2017《地理学报》编辑部本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
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1 引言
自2001年加入世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization, WTO）以来,中国出口贸易延续了1978年改革开放后的快速扩张态势,实现了更为高速的增长,2001-2014年中国出口总额年均增长率达到15.53%。中国出口的高速增长可以从两个方面来解释：一方面,加入WTO后中国享受了全球贸易自由化的好处;另一方面,过去的几十年中国充分发挥比较优势,全面参与到国际分工之中,在全球价值链尤其是生产制造环节占据了举足轻重的地位[1]。然而,高速度的增长并不意味着高质量的增长,中国虽是当之无愧的贸易大国,但并非贸易强国,诸多产业处在价值链的低端,在国际贸易中处于被动地位,与美、日、德等贸易强国相比还有很大差距。在当前中国经济发展模式转轨的“新常态”下,粗放式的出口增长模式越来越难以维系,出口越来越需要从以量取胜向以质取胜转变升级。而伴随着技术进步和贸易自由化的发展,由在全球范围内组织生产的跨国公司主导的全球生产网络迅速发展并不断深化,为发展中国家融入全球经济体系、实现技术进步和产业升级,并进一步实现价值链地位提升、成为国际分工的主导提供了宝贵机遇。
基于上述分析,本文从质量视角出发研究出口产品升级,主要是要解决两个问题：一是中国出口产品质量是否得到了有效持续提升;二是在中国特殊的政治、经济制度背景下,参与全球生产网络能否影响中国出口产品质量的时间变化与空间分异。
2 文献综述与研究假说
2.1 出口产品升级
中国经济的发展离不开出口的拉动,林毅夫等[1]将中国出口增长奇迹的原因归结为劳动力比较优势,并认为产业升级是进一步提升中国经济发展水平的必经之路。产品升级是产业升级的一个重要方面,Humphrey等[2]将产品升级定义为通过自主研发生产新的产品或者对原有产品进行改进创新从而获得更大价值创造,更多地关注地方产业的外部联系、产业网络间的互动、全球价值链治理等因素如何作用于地方产业和产品升级。Porter[3]从要素禀赋的视角分析产品和产业升级,认为人力资本和物质资本的充裕能带来升级;Gereffi[4]强调企业或经济体可以通过在价值链中学习从而使其生产高附加值、高技术含量的产品的能力不断增强;Dicken等[5]认为与外部的知识交流和获取,对地区产业健康发展十分重要。演化经济地理****提出“认知邻近性”的概念,并引入“技术关联”（Technological Relatedness）来衡量认知临近性[6-7],这种认知距离的差异对创新、知识溢出和产品升级有重要影响[8]。关于出口产品升级测度问题,目前学术界基本上采用两种方法：一种是从出口产品结构的角度进行分析;另一种是通过具体的量化指标测度出口商品的技术含量或者附加值等产品特性,这样的方法更加具体,也更具说服力[9]。例如Rodrik[10]、Schott[11]等认为,产品升级的内涵实质上是指出口产品复杂性的提高和出口技术含量的提升;Kristine 等[12]认为产品的升级应该是向高附加值的产品转移。在当前技术进步和经济转轨的大背景下,研究出口产品升级比出口增长更具现实意义。
关于产品升级的研究焦点近年有向产品质量转移的趋势,为从质量视角研究中国的出口产品升级提供了一定的理论支撑。产品质量是指产品满足需求的特性总和,是产品使用价值和“优劣”的具体体现。与目前较为成熟和常见的“技术复杂度”相关研究不同,产品质量强调产品内的垂直差异性,而技术复杂度则强调产品间技术含量差异[13]。像中国出口的计算机,比美国的运动鞋技术复杂度要高,但在产品质量和国际知名度上似乎不能胜之。同样道理,中国近几年出口技术复杂度提升,技术密集型产品的出口比重越来越高,但这并不意味产品整体的质量提升,一些****甚至认为出口产品质量在近几年出现了下滑[14-15]。
关于产品质量的测算呈现出多样性和复杂性,目前为止还没有出现被学界广泛接受的测算方法。学术界大量采用的主要有两种测算方法：
第一种测算方法为单位价格法,即以产品的单位价值作为替代变量。以Schott[16]为首,包括Hummels等[17]、Hallak[18]、Bastos等[19]、李坤望等[14]、杨汝岱等[20]均认为产品单价中较好地涵盖了产品质量的信息。然而,单位价值量不仅包含质量信息,而且包含成本信息,也反映了厂商的定价策略等非质量因素。因而产品单位价格的变化有可能源自其他影响,而非质量的变化。
第二种测算方法为价格推算方法,利用双边贸易中的产品价格与数量信息,从中提取出产品质量的信息。Hallak等[21]、Henn等[22]、Feenstra等[23]、Khandelwal等[24]、施炳展[15]均采用了类似的方法,其中Henn等[22]、Khandelwal等[24]、施炳展[15]等利用的回归方法,把对不可观测的质量的估计转化为对相关系数的估计,为本文质量的测算提供了参考。
在产品质量的影响因素研究方面,Hummels等[17]以及Hallak[18]的研究证实一国出口价格随贸易伙伴的市场规模与人均收入、出口国的资本与技术密集度水平的上升而增加;Stokey[25]指出不同层次的人力资本水平决定了各个国家不同的比较优势,一国投入更多的人力资本,这个国家生产的产品质量就更高;Coe等[26]证实增加研发投入有利于一国改善生产技术、提高生产效率,进而改善产品质量;Lugovskyy等[27]和Flach[28]发现企业会针对不同国家市场生产不同质量的产品;Fan等[29]发现贸易自由化能够促使企业提高出口产品质量;Verhoogen[30]、Hallak等[31]以及Kugler等[32]研究发现,随着贸易地理距离的增加,出口企业的平均产品品质会上升;Murdoch等[33]发现在全球化和链式生产之下,食品的品质受到生态和地方“嵌入”的影响;Mansfield[34]以海产品为例,提出了“质量地理”的概念,认为商品链所具备的地理属性,包括贸易流、技术转移及区位等共同作用于产品质量;杨汝岱等[20]同样发现地理距离对企业出口到每个市场的每种产品的单位价格有显著正的影响;施炳展[15]发现中国企业出口产品质量呈现上升趋势;但本土企业出口质量出现了下降,且与外资企业出口产品质量差距有扩大趋势;李坤望等[14]从市场进入的视角对上述下滑趋势做出了微观解释,发现大量低质量出口关系进入出口市场是造成入世后中国出口产品质量下滑的主要原因;巫强等[35]发现财政分权程度提高增加了地方政府的财政压力,从而限制了地方政府支持企业出口的力度;张杰等[36]也认为政府对出口品有抑制作用,发现政府对中国本土企业不恰当的干预会导致本土企业出口产品质量的低下。
2.2 参与全球生产网络
全球生产网络（Global Production Networks, GPNs）在全球价值链（Global Value Chains, GVCs）和全球商品链（Global Commodity Chains, GCCs）的理论基础上,结合空间、网络和镶嵌的概念,在更广泛的体系下解释了当今世界生产组织的新变化,成为目前全球化与区域发展研究的主要分析框架[5, 37, 38, 39, 40]。全球生产网络将商品的全球生产建构为一种特殊类型的组织创新,侧重研究具有不同生产功能的企业的网络关系及权力结构,同时强调网络中知识的流动与共享,以及地区制度背景等对地方产业升级的推动作用[37, 38,39, 41]。地方生产能否全面融入到全球生产网络至关重要,直接影响产品升级。地方通过与全球产业网络有效地整合,不断获取知识和技术,能够实现技术进步和产业升级,并进一步实现价值链地位提升、成为国际分工的主导,达成持续有效的“升级”[42, 43, 44]。参与全球生产网络主要通过以下几个途径影响一国尤其是发展中国家或地区出口高质量产品的能力[45]：
（1）技术转移和扩散效应。在全球生产网络体系下,一国凭借劳动力和资源禀赋参与国际分工,可以通过“干中学”实现产品升级[46, 47, 48];同时通过进口国际市场大量优质的中间品,进口国可以以较低的成本学习、模仿和吸收发达国家的已有技术,进而实现自身的技术进步。同时,处在供应链下游的企业为了确保上游供应商能够提供符合要求的中间投入品,会积极主动地向贸易伙伴转移技术,这种技术转移也会在企业间扩散,从而提升整个地区的生产技术水平[26, 49]。
（2）劳动力配置效应。一国能够在参与全球生产网络的过程中不断积累生产经验,培养熟练的劳动力,提高了劳动者对于市场的适应性和学习新技能的能力[50]。
（3）战略耦合和嵌入效应。一方面本地企业和外企之间通过战略耦合（Strategic Coupling）,使得本地企业能够构建自己的价值链,并不断地融入到全球生产网络中去,这使得本地企业可以通过不断积累先进技术追赶上全球的领先企业,最终提升价值链地位,提供优质产品[51]。另一方面,跨国公司的地域嵌入（Embeddedness）往往会加强地区的价值增加和捕获过程,对地方的发展有着深远而持续的影响。
Hummels等[52]开创的关于垂直专业化与增加值贸易的研究启发了近年来许多关于全球价值链分工的讨论。邱斌等[45]就根据Hummels定义的垂直专业化指数来衡量中国制造业行业参与全球生产网络的程度,采用类似方法的还有吴陈香[53]、程大中[54]等;姚志毅[55]还采用了进出口市场分散度的指标来评价融入全球生产网络的强度。本文结合上述研究,从深度和广度两个层次来衡量参与全球生产网络的程度,深度越深、广度越广,越有利于实现技术转移和扩散,积累熟练劳动力,建立战略耦合和释放嵌入效应,因而越有利于地区产品升级。同时本文也考虑了地区自身的对外贸易、制度和环境因素,从而在地区—全球的框架下分析出口产品升级（图1）。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图1研究框架
-->Fig. 1Research framework
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综上,本文提出以下两个研究假说：假设1：参与全球生产网络越深,地区所处的价值链地位越高,地区出口的产品质量越高;假设2：参与全球生产网络越广,与越多国家或地区有贸易往来,地区出口的产品质量越高。
3 中国出口产品质量及其空间分异
3.1 数据来源
本文数据来源主要是2000-2011年的中国海关贸易数据库,为了保证计算结果的一致和有效性,本文对海关数据库样本进行了如下的处理：① 剔除缺失数量、价格、年份等信息的数据;② 删除中间贸易企业。中间贸易企业是纯粹的出口贸易企业,很少参与价值链中的生产加工环节,且区位特征不明显;此外,下文模型回归中做了补充处理：由于西藏地区缺少部分统计信息,因而在回归分析中不考虑西藏;删除2位HS第01~15类的产品,上述产品为天然动植物产品,其质量主要源自资源禀赋,不能准确体现生产加工所带来的质量内涵,因此剔除该类。
3.2 产品质量计算
从需求层面看,决定消费者选择的是产品价格与产品质量的比值[31],因而企业产品质量异质性是影响市场表现的重要因素。参考施炳展[15]、Khandelwal[24]以及Hallak等[31]采用的质量内生决定理论模型,从消费者的角度出发,以CES效用函数为原型,并且将产品质量引入,即假定消费者效用函数如下：式中：$\lambda_{j}$、$q_{j}$分别表示j产品的质量和数量; $\sigma$表示产品种类间替代弹性（$\sigma$>1）。对应的价格指数P为：
$P=\sum_{j}(\lambda^{\sigma-1}_{j} P^{1-\sigma}_{j})$（2）
式中：$p_j$代表j产品的价格。进而j产品对应的消费数量为：
$q_{j}=p^{-\sigma}_{j} \lambda ^{\sigma-1}{j} \frac{E}{P}$（3）
式中：E为消费者支出。进而对某一HS类产品而言,企业i在t年对m国出口数量表示为：
$q_{imt}=p^{\sigma}_{imt} \lambda ^{\sigma-1}_{imt} \frac{E_{imt}}{P_{imt}}$（4）
式中：$q_{imt}$为产品出口数量; $p^{-\sigma}_{imt}$代表产品价格; $\lambda^{\sigma-1}_{imt}$代表产品质量;E为消费者支出;P为价格指数;$\sigma >1$为产品替代弹性。将上式两边取自然对数,进行简单整理后得计量回归方程式[15, 56,57, 58]：
$lnq_{imt}+\sigma lnP_{imt}=\chi_{imt}+\alpha _{h}+\epsilon_{imt} \\ \chi_{imt}=lnE_{imt}-ln P_{imt}$ （5）
式中：$\chi_{imt}$是由出口目的国主导的,因而可以用进口国家和年份的二维虚拟变量来固定这一影响;$\alpha _{h}$为产品固定效应,可以用4位HS代码来控制产品间的差异。
而对于$\sigma$的处理,很多****采用了将其赋值为常数的做法[58,59,60,61,62],并且由于控制了产品间差异,替代弹性事实上只是起到了数量级比例尺（压缩或放大）的作用[59]。综合以上研究,以及参考中国出口产品的替代弹性,本文将$\sigma$设为4[58]。
本文关注的主要是残差项,即$\epsilon_{imt}=(\sigma-1)ln lambda_{imt}$,事实上所需的产品质量信息就包含在了残差项中。式（6）定义了产品质量：
$ quality_{imt}=ln\hat{\lambda}_{imt}=[\epsilon_{imt}/(\sigma-1)]$（6）
为了在不同层面上加总,从而进行多层面的分析比较,须对质量进行标准化。本文在产品层面对计算所得质量指标进行了标准化,标准化之后的质量指标介于0~1之间：
$Squality_{imt}=\frac{quality_{imt}-min quality_{imt}}{max quality_{imt}-min quality_{imt}}$（7）
式中：min、max分别代表求最小值和最大值,是针对某一类产品,在所有年度、所有企业、所有进口国层面上求出最值。
3.3 中国出口产品质量的时空分异
以式（7）所计算出来的标准化质量数,参考陈晓华等[63]、施炳展[15]的研究,本文可以以出口额为权重对某一地区的整体出口质量进行汇总,公式为：$Squality_{nt}=\sum\frac{export_{imt}}{\sum_{imt \in \Omega}export_{imt}}Squality_{imt}$（8）
式中：$Squality_{nt}$代表n地区在t年份的整体出口质量;$export_{imt}$为i企业t年份向m国的出口额;$\Omega$为n地区i年份的总样本集。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图22000-2011年中国出口产品质量变化
-->Fig. 2China's export product quality during 2000-2011
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基于上述方法,本文可以得到出口产品质量按年份、省份的加总。图2和图3显示的是2000-2011年中国出口质量的总体变化。2001年是中国出口产品质量的低谷,加入WTO前后所带来的贸易壁垒的降低、贸易自由化使得大量低质产品进入国际市场是质量下滑的可能原因。此后至2007年出口产品质量提升明显,但在2008年跌入第二个低谷,之后又有抬升趋势。极值上的波动不大,但2000-2011年质量总体的标准差不断减小,表现为省间差异缩小。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图32000-2011年中国出口产品质量变化
-->Fig. 3Bar chart of China's export product quality during 2000-2011
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具体来看省份间的差异（图4）,出口质量的分布同出口总额的分布有着明显的不同。出口额呈现明显的东高西低态势,出口质量的分布则以黑龙江、新疆、西藏和东部沿海为高值,以山西、贵州等中西部省份为低值。黑龙江、新疆、西藏呈现较高的质量可能是由于本文没有彻底排除掉产品类别的影响,一些天然的、资源类产品在国际市场体现出了较高的质量。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图42000-2011年中国各省出口额和出口产品质量平均值
-->Fig. 4Province level map of China's export product quality during 2000-2011
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显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图52000-2011年中国出口产品质量省际变化
-->Fig. 5Province level line chart of China's export product quality during 2000-2011
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而在时间上看,大部分省份保持平稳,如北京、天津、辽宁、上海、浙江、广东、四川等,这些省份的出口产品质量变化不大,但基本都有先升后降的轻微趋势。而山西、贵州、海南出现了较大幅度的上升,山东、新疆等省份有较大幅度下降。此外,内蒙古、黑龙江、西藏、甘肃、宁夏等省份每年的出口产品质量也有较大波动（图5）。
3.4 分产品类别的计算
分产品来看,根据HS二位数计算的产品质量平均值（图6）,质量最高的产品为50~54所代表的纤维、纺织品,紧跟其后的是其他一些手工制品和轻工业制品。各类金属制品的质量处于中间水平,电子产品质量较低,矿物燃料和肥料的质量最低。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图6依2位HS产品分类的中国出口产品质量
-->Fig. 6China's export product quality categorized by 2-digit HS code
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但在空间上,不同要素密集类型的产品之间差别明显,这可能对本文的结果产生影响。因此,本文借鉴陈万灵等[64]的研究方法,将HS产品分成四类：资源密集型产品、劳动密集型产品、资本密集型产品和技术密集型产品（表1）,采用类似的方法,分四类进行出口产品质量的计算,并最终汇总到省级层面。
Tab. 1
表1
表1HS产品分类
Tab. 1Classification of 2-digit HS product
| 资源密集型产品 | 劳动密集型产品 | 资本密集型产品 | 技术密集型产品 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HS编码 | 01~27,71 | 41~70,94~96 | 28,29,31~40,72~84,86,87,89 | 30,85,88,90~93 |
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图7给出了2000-2011年四种类型的出口产品质量的变化。可以看到中国资源密集和劳动密集的产品在国际市场上有着更高的质量,但资本密集和技术密集型产品的附加值相对较低,但两者的质量近年来提升明显,尤其是技术密集型的出口产品。而在省际分布上,四种类型产品基本都呈现了东高西低的态势。但西部一些省份如青海、四川、重庆、甘肃等的出口质量相对较高,在局部形成了高—低的空间分布（图8）。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图72000-2011年中国四类出口产品质量均值随时间变化
-->Fig. 7Bar chart of four-kind China's export product quality during 2000-2011
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显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图8中国四类出口产品质量均值省际分布
-->Fig. 8Province level map of four-kind China's export product quality
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4 计量模型构建和结果分析
4.1 模型构建
本文参考了邱斌等[45]、吴陈香[53]、姚志毅[55]和郭炳南[65]等的研究构建了以下的指标体系以衡量地区参与全球生产网络的程度：（1）以垂直专业化和加工贸易增加值率衡量的参与全球生产网络的深度。对国际垂直专业化分工的测度方法主要有加工贸易比重法、中间产品贸易量法、Hummels投入产出法等,囿于省级尺度数据可获取性,本文用各省区加工贸易占总贸易额比率来反映各省参与国际垂直专业分工的程度。
加工贸易增加值率是衡量地区加工贸易发展水平的指标,反映了地区的价值链地位,体现的是生产加工产生的附加值的高低,用公式表示为：
$VA=(X_{e}-X_{i})\div X_{i} \times 100\%$（9）
式中：$X_{e}$表示加工贸易出口额;X_{i}表示加工贸易进口额。
（2）以进出口贸易市场分散度衡量的参与全球生产网络的广度。在测量市场广度时,引入了HHI指数：
$HHI=\sum^{N}_{i=1}(X_{i}/X)^{2}=\sum^{N}_{i=1}S^{2}_{i}$（10）
式中：X表示地区进出口贸易总额;$X_{i}$表示地区到各贸易伙伴国（地区）的进出口额,则 $S_{i}=X_{i}/X$表示第i个国家（地区）的市场份额。市场分散度 $Disp=1/HHI$。
根据前述产品质量影响因素,本文认为地区的出口质量主要受供给和需求两个层次的影响,具体而言,供给方面主要是地区的研发投入和经济基础、制度背景等,需求主要是国际市场中的外部需求,并参考王抒宁[66]、祝树金等[67]的研究,加入如下的5个控制变量：出口规模、进口规模、财政分权、研发投入、人力资本。其中出口规模以地区出口额占当年GDP比例表示,反映了地区的外部需求,对质量的影响有待确认;进口规模以地区进口额占比表示,进口是主要的技术扩散途径,因而认为其对质量的影响为正;制度背景以地方财政分权程度表示,预期影响需要实证检验;研发投入以地区R&D经费占当年名义GDP比重表示、人力资本以地区规模以上企业研发技术人员占比表示,一般认为二者能够提升生产技术水平和生产率,因而能够促进产品质量提升和出口升级。考虑到固定效应本身对地区—时间维度的控制,及GDP与其他变量（尤其是研发投入）之间的高相关性,本文没有引入人均生产总值作为控制变量。控制变量的计算方法和预期系数如表2所示。
Tab. 2
表2
表2控制变量
Tab. 2Control variables
| 变量名称 | 计算方法 | 预期系数 |
|---|---|---|
| 出口规模 export | 地区出口总额÷地区名义GDP | 待检验 |
| 进口规模 import | 地区进口总额÷地区名义GDP | + |
| 财政分权 fd | 本级人均地方财政收入÷（本级人均地方财政收入+本级人均中央财政收入） | 待检验 |
| 研发投入 RD | R&D经费÷地区名义GDP | + |
| 人力资本 humcap | 地区规模以上企业研发技术人员数÷规模以上企业从业人员总数 | + |
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基本面板数据计量模型及指标设定如下：
$quality_{it}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1}\times VS_{it}+\beta_{2} \times VA_{it}+\beta_{3} \times Disp_{it}+\sum^{n}_{j=1}\gamma_{j}\times Z_{jit}+\alpha_{i}+\gamma_{t}+u_{it}$（11）
式中：被解释变量为省份—年度层面的产品质量$quality_{it}$,数据来源为前述2000-2011年汇总至省级层面的地区整体出口产品质量。主要的解释变量为垂直专业化VS,加工贸易增加值率VA和市场分散度Disp; $Z_{jit}$为第j个控制变量。
4.2 实证分析
图9展示了产品质量和主要解释变量的散点图,可以看到质量与垂直专业化是较明显的正向线性关系。而与加工贸易附加值则有类似倒U型的分布关系,而质量与市场分散度则有一种负向关系。
显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图9主要解释变量—质量散点图
-->Fig. 9Two-way graph of quality and explanatory variables
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表3给出了根据式（11）构建的面板模型的回归结果,通过Hausman检验选取固定效应或随机效应模型。垂直专业化的系数显著为正,意味着参与全球生产,深入融合到价值链中对出口产品质量是正向促进作用。加入控制变量后,在全国层面,垂直专业化的系数仍显著为正;市场分散度的系数在东部为正,中部为负,体现了不同地区出口结构和出口发展状况的差异。出口规模为负,意味着越是依靠出口拉动的地区,其出口产品的质量就越低,即存在“重量不重质”的现象。进口对产品质量的影响大体为正向,验证了“干中学”效应。财政分权指标系数为正,表示地区自主度高的地方,出口的质量也就越高,而这一现象在中部地区尤为明显。而东部地区研发投入的系数为负,这与本文的认知不符。一般认为研发投入能够促进出口质量的提升,而目前这一系数为负可能是由于出口企业长期处于价值链低端,对研发资金、技术的吸引力较低,产生了一定程度的“低端锁定”[68]。全国层面人力资本系数为正,意味着研发和技术人员对于出口产品质量有正向影响。
Tab. 3
表3
表3面板模型回归结果
Tab. 3Fixed effect regression results
| 全国 | 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VARIABLES | quality | quality | quality | quality | quality |
| VS | 0.04079*** | 0.0571*** | 0.144*** | 0.109*** | 0.0484*** |
| VA | 0.00163 | 0.00156 | 0.0184*** | 0.00105 | -3.96e-05 |
| Disp | -0.0007923*** | -0.000287 | 0.00298*** | -0.00165** | -0.000172 |
| export | -0.1000*** | -0.0581* | -0.379** | -0.0384** | |
| import | 0.0747*** | 0.0113 | 0.745*** | 0.304*** | |
| fd | 0.131*** | 0.0582 | 0.392*** | 0.00262 | |
| RD | -2.63e-05* | -2.62e-05* | 3.45e-05 | -2.06e-05 | |
| humcap | 0.278** | 0.216 | 0.151 | 0.373 | |
| DistrictFE | - | Yes | Yes | Yes | - |
| YearFE | - | Yes | Yes | Yes | - |
| Constant | 0.499*** | 0.470*** | 0.417*** | 0.585*** | 0.535*** |
| Observations | 360 | 360 | 132 | 108 | 120 |
| R2 | 0.146 | 0.264 | 0.495 | 0.521 | 0.443 |
| 观测省份 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Hausman P-value | 0.5574(RE) | 0.0000(FE) | 0.0000(FE) | 0.0000(FE) | 0.5960(RE) |
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Tab. 4
表4
表4FGLS模型回归结果
Tab. 4FGLS regression results
| 全国 | 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VARIABLES | quality | quality | quality | quality | quality |
| VS | 0.0454*** | 0.0418*** | 0.0644*** | 0.0957*** | 0.0675*** |
| VA | 0.00190* | 0.00190* | 0.00807** | 0.000309 | 0.000727 |
| Disp | -0.00059** | -0.000460* | 0.000738 | -0.00176*** | 1.13e-05 |
| export | -0.0657*** | -0.0443* | -0.229 | -0.0482* | |
| import | 0.0554*** | 0.0274 | 0.469*** | 0.306*** | |
| fd | 0.110*** | 0.0475 | 0.278*** | -0.0509 | |
| RD | -1.69e-05** | -8.86e-06 | 5.88e-05 | -3.72e-05 | |
| humcap | 0.0989* | 0.0768 | -0.0577 | 0.456** | |
| DistrictFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| YearFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.588*** | 0.459*** | 0.500*** | 0.409*** | 0.551*** |
| Observations | 360 | 360 | 132 | 108 | 120 |
| 观测省份 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
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通过异方差和自相关的检验,本文发现了较为严重的异方差和自相关问题。故考虑采用加入时间和地区固定效应的FGLS方法进行估计（表4）。在修正后的模型中,参与全球生产的深度与产品升级正相关,而广度则与之负相关;进口贸易有利于出口升级;研发投入的系数依然为负,人力资本则在西部省份发挥了较为明显的正向作用。为了避免异方差和自相关问题,后文的回归均采用FGLS方法处理。
从地理格局来看,东中西分划已不适应发展要求,因而采用东中西部+东北区域四大板块进行划分,同时为了进一步讨论研发投入的影响,本文引入研发投入和垂直专业化的交叉项（交叉前进行了去中心化处理）,结果如表5所示。参与全球生产在东部和中部地区发挥着较为重要的作用。进口所带来技术扩散对中、西部地区出口质量提升作用明显,但出口量与质量并没有直接的正向关系。研发投入本身系数为正,但交叉项系数为负,意味着研发投入并没有使得垂直专业化程度加深,不能抬升地区的价值链地位,因而前述的“低端锁定”假设是有一定道理的,印证了出口企业在提升价值链地位的能力不足。这一现象在东部尤为显著。人力资本在西部地区有正向影响,而在东北地区,高人力资本并没有转化为高出口质量。同时,地区的财政自主权在中部地区和东北地区起到了至关重要的作用。
Tab. 5
表5
表5加入交叉项、分四大经济板块回归结果
Tab. 5FGLS regression results categorized by 4 economic plates with VS
| 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VARIABLES | quality | quality | quality | quality | quality |
| VS | 0.0399*** | 0.0988*** | 0.0918*** | 0.0504* | -0.122* |
| VA | 0.00197* | 0.0128*** | 0.0103*** | -4.79e-05 | -0.00129 |
| Disp | -0.000413* | 0.00104*** | -0.00162** | -0.000106 | -0.00156 |
| export | -0.0605*** | -0.0282 | -0.642*** | -0.0426 | -0.101 |
| import | 0.0505*** | -0.00541 | 0.680** | 0.321*** | -0.122 |
| fd | 0.100*** | 0.00625 | 0.358*** | 0.00376 | 0.307** |
| RD | 9.27e-06 | 4.18e-05*** | 0.000112 | -6.90e-05 | -6.85e-05 |
| humcap | 0.0868 | 0.0578 | -0.0427 | 0.515*** | -0.668*** |
| VS×RD | -0.00434** | -0.00753*** | -0.00627 | -0.00219 | -0.00523 |
| DistrictFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| YearFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.464*** | 0.535*** | 0.375*** | 0.535*** | 0.504*** |
| Observations | 360 | 120 | 72 | 132 | 36 |
| 观测省份 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
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Tab. 6
表6
表6分产品回归结果
Tab. 6FGLS regression results categorized by four-kind product
| 资源密集型 | 劳动密集型 | 资本密集型 | 技术密集型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VARIABLES | quality_res | quality_lab | quality_cap | quality_tec |
| VS | 0.0785 | 0.151*** | 0.284*** | 0.279*** |
| VA | -0.0213*** | 0.00223 | -0.00426 | -0.00229 |
| Disp | 0.00187 | -0.00461*** | -0.00133 | 0.00165 |
| export | -0.0519 | -0.0343 | -0.0520 | -0.146* |
| import | -0.000962 | 0.0365 | 0.139** | 0.130* |
| fd | -0.281* | -0.0460 | -0.179** | 0.442*** |
| RD | -8.99e-05** | 2.75e-05 | 8.64e-05*** | -5.38e-05 |
| humcap | 0.324 | 0.0537 | -0.000896 | 0.160 |
| DistrictFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| YearFE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.859*** | 0.728*** | 0.552*** | 0.106 |
| Observations | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 |
| Number of prov_id | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
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前述亦有提到,全样本的回归会因为产品品类的差异使得回归结果产生偏误,因而考虑分不同要素密集类型的产品进行分类别的探讨。表6给出了面板回归结果,可以看到参与全球生产对不同类型的出口产品有着不同的作用机制。资源密集型产品与全球参与程度的关系不大;而另外三种类型的产品都随垂直专业化程度增加而呈现更高的产品质量,尤其是资本和技术密集型的产品。同时,劳动密集产品存在较明显的低质产品开拓市场的情况。另外,财政分权程度高的地区所出口的资源和资本密集型产品质量更低,技术密集型产品质量则更高;研发投入向资本密集型产品倾斜。
5 结论与建议
本文采用了出口产品的质量来反映出口产品的升级,测算的出口质量在近十几年有几次较大波动,但在近年呈现波动上升的趋势,同时地区间的差异在减小。研究发现：① 参与全球生产直接促进了出口产品的升级,尤其是深入融合到全球价值链中对出口产品质量有明显的正向促进作用;参与全球生产的广度与东、西部的出口质量的关系则呈现差异。② 通过分产品类型分别测算产品质量并进行回归检验,发现中国资源密集和劳动密集的产品在国际市场上有着更高的质量,但资本密集和技术密集型产品的附加值相对较低。除资源密集型产品外,其他三种产品在垂直专业化程度高的地区表现出更高的质量。③ 一个地区的市场广度越大,劳动密集产品表现出越低的质量,意味着劳动密集型的产品并不随全球生产参与程度的提高而升级,反而可能存在着低质产品开拓市场的情况。④ 对全部产品的回归中,财政分权程度越高的地方,出口的质量也就越高,而这一现象在中部地区和东北地区尤为明显。⑤ 分开产品类型来看,财政分权对技术密集型产品有着显著的正向促进作用,但对资源和资本密集型产品的作用事实上是负的,也就是说地方政府的自主权利很大程度上倾斜向了高新技术出口企业。
其他控制变量上,出口规模系数为负,意味着越是依靠出口拉动的地区,其出口产品的质量就越低,即存在“重量不重质”的现象;进口规模的系数为正,意味着进口产生了“干中学”效应,也带来了技术扩散。人力资本的作用大体上为正;研发投入的系数为负可能是由于出口企业长期处于价值链低端,对研发资金、技术的吸引力较低,产生了一定程度的“低端锁定”,这种情况在东部地区更加严重。
在当前中国经济“转轨”、转变经济增长方式的现实背景下,本文的研究结论具有重要的政策指导意义：
（1）出口的发展模式也应“转轨”。本文注意到,尽管近年来中国出口总额依然保持高速增长,但出口产品的质量却呈现波动,没有显著的提升。中国虽然是当之无愧的出口大国,却还远远没有成为一个出口强国,长期以来,中国的诸多产业被限制在价值链低端,尤其是一些技术复杂度相对较高的产品,如电子产品等,附加值相对偏低。因而,应该想方设法地改进出口模式,借助于全球生产网络来提升技术水平和生产效率,并在此基础上形成新的比较优势,实现出口的良性发展。
（2）融入全球生产对于提升地区出口高质量产品的能力十分关键,地方政府应积极营造参与全球生产网络分工的制度环境和配套设施。地方政府应主动采取措施提高地区和地区内产业的国际分工地位,通过建立完善基础设施、给予一定的政策优惠等吸引外资和跨国公司落地,从而进一步加强地区—全球的技术交流,放大技术扩散的促进作用;应鼓励人才培养,尤其是改善高级技工和高端研发人员的培养机制,补充人力资本;促进科技研发,改进或转移落后产业,提升区域竞争力。同时,对于不同类型的出口企业应有所侧重,全球生产网络对资本和技术密集型的产品促进作用更加明显。当然,无论是生产哪一种要素密集型产品,只有不断提高自身的生产技术水平和效率,才能摆脱在全球生产网络中的被动地位。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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| [1] | |
| [2] | Humphrey J. and Schmitz H. (2002) How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters?, Reg. Studies 36, 1017-1027. What is the scope for local upgrading strategies where producers operate in global value chains? The literature on industrial clusters emphasizes the role of inter-firm co-operation and local institutions in enabling upgrading. The value chain literature focuses on the role of global buyers and chain governance in defining upgrading opportunities. This paper argues that clusters are inserted into global value chains in different ways, and that this has consequences for enabling or disabling local-level upgrading efforts. It pays particular attention to the position of developing country firms selling to large, global buyers. |
| [3] | |
| [4] | Abstract This article uses a global commodity chains perspective to analyze the social and organizational dimensions of international trade networks. In linking international trade and industrial upgrading, this article specifies: the mechanisms by which organizational learning occurs in trade networks; typical trajectories from assembly to OEM and OBM export roles; and the organizational conditions that facilitate industrial upgrading moves such as the shift from assembly to full-package networks. The empirical focus is the apparel industry, with an emphasis on Asia. |
| [5] | A vast and continually expanding literature on economic globalization continues to generate a miasma of conflicting viewpoints and alternative discourses. This article argues that any understanding of the global economy must be sensitive to four considerations: (a) conceptual categories and labels carry with them the discursive power to shape material processes; (b) multiple scales of analysis must be incorporated in recognition of the contemporary 鈥榬elativization of scale鈥; (c) no single institutional or organizational locus of analysis should be privileged; and (d) extrapolations from specific case studies and instances must be treated with caution, but this should not preclude the option of discussing the global economy, and power relations within it, as a structural whole. This paper advocates a network methodology as a potential framework to incorporate these concerns. Such a methodology requires us to identify actors in networks, their ongoing relations and the structural outcomes of these relations. Networks thus become the foundational unit of analysis for our understanding of the global economy, rather than individuals, firms or nation states. In presenting this argument we critically examine two examples of network methodology that have been used to provide frameworks for analysing the global economy: global commodity chains and actor-network theory. We suggest that while they fall short of fulfilling the promise of a network methodology in some respects, they do provide indications of the utility of such a methodology as a basis for understanding the global economy. |
| [6] | Economies grow by upgrading the products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions, and skills needed to make newer products are more easily adapted from some products than from others. Here, we study this network of relatedness between products, or "product space," finding that more-sophisticated products are located in a densely connected core whereas less-sophisticated products occupy a less-connected periphery. Empirically, countries move through the product space by developing goods close to those they currently produce. Most countries can reach the core only by traversing empirically infrequent distances, which may help explain why poor countries have trouble developing more competitive exports and fail to converge to the income levels of rich countries. |
| [7] | Following last decade's programmatic papers on Evolutionary Economic Geography, we report on recent empirical advances and how this empirical work can be positioned vis-a-vis other strands of research in economic geography. First, we review studies on the path dependent nature of clustering, and how the evolutionary perspective relates to that of New Economic Geography. Second, we discuss research on agglomeration externalities in Regional Science, and how Evolutionary Economic Geography contributed to this literature with the concepts of cognitive proximity and related variety. Third, we go into the role of institutions in Evolutionary Economic Geography, and we relate this to the way Institutional Economic Geography tends to view institutions. From this discussion, a number of new research challenges are derived. |
| [8] | 地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间(Product Space)的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现:中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。 . 地区经济发展与其生产结构紧密相联。演化经济地理学认为,地区生产结构的演化受技术关联的影响,是一个路径依赖过程;一些研究也认为产业和区域政策等因素可能创造新路径,实现路径突破。本文沿用Hidalgo等定义的贸易产品空间方法,基于2001-2013年中国31个省区市的产品贸易数据,对中国出口产品空间(Product Space)的演化路径进行探讨。结果发现:中国四大区域—东部、中部、西部和东北地区的出口产品经历了较为明显的结构转型,不同区域的转型方向与路径各异。在2001-2007年间,四大区域的出口产品空间演化受到技术关联的显著影响,体现为路径依赖的过程。在2008-2013年间,东部、中部与东北地区的产品空间演化仍受技术关联的影响,而西部地区则更多受到产业和区域政策的推动,体现了路径突破的演化过程。本文研究启示,虽然中国区域生产结构演化一定程度上受制于现有区域能力、技术和知识积累,但是区域性制度政策创新可以突破原有路径,为区域发展创造新的机会。 |
| [9] | |
| [10] | I. Introduction The phenomenal performance of China constitutes the great economic miracle of the last quarter century. China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, at historically unprecedented rates that few economists would have found plausible |
| [11] | Chinese exports China's exports have grown dramatically over the last three decades in large part due to its rapid penetration of new product markets. To help address the implications of this growth for developed economies, this paper gauges the relative sophistication of Chinese exports along two dimensions. First, I measure China's export overlap with developed countries by comparing the set of products China exports to the United States with the bundle of products exported by the OECD. Second, I compare Chinese and other countries' exports within product markets in terms of the price they receive in the US market. While China's export overlap with the OECD is much greater than one would predict given its low wages, the prices that US consumers are willing to pay for China's exports are substantially lower than the prices they are willing to pay for OECD exports. This fact, as well as the increase in the 'OECD premium' over time, suggests that competition between China and the world's most developed economies may be less direct than their product-mix overlap implies. It may also reflect efforts by developed-country firms to compete with China by dropping their least sophisticated offerings and moving up the quality ladder . Peter K. Schott |
| [12] | The research paper deals with an export structural transformation model providing for a transition from the production and exports of goods with low value added to the production and exports of goods with high value added. It is essential for the improvement of a nation's welfare, as observations show that in a longer perspective the level of economic development is related to the degree of export sophistication. The speed of structural transformation depends on the distance in the product space between the potential export goods and the existing export goods with revealed comparative advantage. Estimations within the research suggest that the relative distance of Latvian export goods to goods with comparative advantage is rather small. Potential of almost all groups of currently produced goods to act as drivers of development has already been exhausted to a large extent. In order to enhance sophistication of Latvia's export structure, the production of goods with their implicit income level exceeding the current average weighted value of the export basket should be augmented. Potential goods for exports include pharmaceutical products, medical, precision and optical instruments as well as chemicals and chemical products. However, it is rather unlikely that comparative advantage in these products can be developed without extra supportive measures taken by the Government. |
| [13] | . . |
| [14] | . 利用2000—2006年HS8分位数中国海关统计数据,从市场进入的视角,对中国出口产品品质演化的微观机制进行分析发现,新出口关系的进入是出口快速增长的最大推动力,但新进入出口关系的品质远低于市场平均水平。在市场进入方式上,中国出口企业尤其是民营企业和东部地区企业,倾向于以价格竞争的方式进入市场。大量低品质出口关系进入出口市场,是造成入世后中国出口产品品质持续下滑的主要原因。由传统的价格竞争向以品质提升为核心的非价格竞争转变,是加快中国外贸发展方式转型的必经之途。 . 利用2000—2006年HS8分位数中国海关统计数据,从市场进入的视角,对中国出口产品品质演化的微观机制进行分析发现,新出口关系的进入是出口快速增长的最大推动力,但新进入出口关系的品质远低于市场平均水平。在市场进入方式上,中国出口企业尤其是民营企业和东部地区企业,倾向于以价格竞争的方式进入市场。大量低品质出口关系进入出口市场,是造成入世后中国出口产品品质持续下滑的主要原因。由传统的价格竞争向以品质提升为核心的非价格竞争转变,是加快中国外贸发展方式转型的必经之途。 |
| [15] | 本文首次测算了中国企业层面出口产品质量,并提炼了相关典型化事实。结论发现:由于持续出口企业产品质量升级,质量总体水平上升;质量升级效应主要发生在第二年;产品质量越高,出口持续时间越长、广度越大;由于生产低质量产品企业的大量进入,本土企业产品质量总体水平下降,与外资企业差距扩大;本土企业的产品质量升级效应、出口稳定性、持续时间、广度均劣于外资企业。提升产品质量应成为本土企业出口的更高追求。 . 本文首次测算了中国企业层面出口产品质量,并提炼了相关典型化事实。结论发现:由于持续出口企业产品质量升级,质量总体水平上升;质量升级效应主要发生在第二年;产品质量越高,出口持续时间越长、广度越大;由于生产低质量产品企业的大量进入,本土企业产品质量总体水平下降,与外资企业差距扩大;本土企业的产品质量升级效应、出口稳定性、持续时间、广度均劣于外资企业。提升产品质量应成为本土企业出口的更高追求。 |
| [16] | This paper exploits product-level U. S. import data to test trade theory. Although the United States increasingly sources the same products from both high- and low-wage countries, unit values within products vary systematically with exporter relative factor endowments and exporter production techniques. These facts reject factor-proportions specialization across products but are consistent with such specialization within products. The data are inconsistent with new trade theory models predicting an inverse relationship between price and producer productivity. The existence of within-product specialization is an important consideration for understanding the impact of globalization on firms and workers, the evolution of total factor productivity, and the likelihood of long-run income convergence. |
| [17] | Large economies export more in absolute terms than do small economies. We use data on shipments by 126 exporting countries to 59 importing countries in 5,000 product categories to answer the question: How? Do big economies export larger quantities of each good (the intensive margin), a wider set of goods (the extensive margin), or higher-quality goods? We find that the extensive margin accounts for around 60 percent of the greater exports of larger economies. Within categories, richer countries export higher quantities at modestly higher prices. We compare these findings to some workhorse trade models. Models with Armington national product differentiation have no extensive margin, and incorrectly predict lower prices for the exports of larger economies. Models with Krugman firm-level product differentiation do feature a prominent extensive margin, but overpredict the rate at which variety responds to exporter size. Models with quality differentiation, meanwhile, can match the price facts. Finally, models with fixed costs of exporting to a given market might explain the tendency of larger economies to export a given product to more countries. |
| [18] | A substantial amount of theoretical work predicts that quality plays an important role as a determinant of the global patterns of bilateral trade. This paper develops an empirical framework to estimate the empirical relevance of this prediction. In particular, it identifies the effect of quality operating on the demand side through the relationship between per capita income and aggregate demand for quality. The model yields predictions for bilateral flows at the sectoral level and is estimated using cross-sectional data for bilateral trade among 60 countries in 1995. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction: rich countries tend to import relatively more from countries that produce high-quality goods. |
| [19] | |
| [20] | 本文从企业异质性和产品特征的角度出发,以2006年中国海关总署企业层面进出口数据(CLFTTD)为基础,研究地理因素对出口产品价格的影响.研究发现:地理距离对企业出口到每个市场的每种产品的单位价格有显著正的影响,企业倾向于对距离更远的市场出口单位价格更高的产品;这种影响程度在加工贸易与一般贸易之间、外资企业与内资企业之间的差异非常明显. . 本文从企业异质性和产品特征的角度出发,以2006年中国海关总署企业层面进出口数据(CLFTTD)为基础,研究地理因素对出口产品价格的影响.研究发现:地理距离对企业出口到每个市场的每种产品的单位价格有显著正的影响,企业倾向于对距离更远的市场出口单位价格更高的产品;这种影响程度在加工贸易与一般贸易之间、外资企业与内资企业之间的差异非常明显. |
| [21] | We develop a method for decomposing countries' observed export prices into quality versus quality-adjusted-price components using information contained in their trade balances. Holding observed export prices constant, countries with surpluses are inferred to offer higher quality than countries running deficits. Our method accounts for variation in trade balances induced by horizontal and vertical differentiation. We use our method to examine manufacturing product quality among the world's top exporters from 1989 to 2003. We find that the initial quality gap between high- and low-income countries is smaller than their initial income gap, and that the former narrows considerably faster over time. |
| [22] | . This paper develops new, far more extensive estimates of export quality, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products over 196209“2010. Quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of development, with quality convergence largely completed as a country reaches upper middle-income status. There is significant cross-country heterogeneity in quality growth rates. Within any given product line, quality converges both conditionally and unconditionally to the world frontier; increases in institutional quality and human capital are associated with faster quality upgrading. In turn, faster growth in quality is associated with more rapid output growth. The evidence suggests that quality upgrading is best encouraged through a broadly conducive domestic environment, rather than sector-specific policies. Diversification is important to create new upgrading opportunities. |
| [23] | |
| [24] | If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources. Removing this misallocation accounts for a substantial share of the overall gain in productivity associated with quota removal. |
| [25] | A model of growth is developed in which finite-lived individuals invest in human capital, investments have a positive external effect on the human capital of later cohorts, and labor with more human capital produces higher-quality goods. Stationary growth paths are analyzed, paths along which human capital and the quality of goods grow at a common, constant rate. It is also shown that if a small open economy is either very advanced or very backward relative to the rest of the world, then its rate of investment in human capital is lower under free trade than under autarky. |
| [26] | |
| [27] | |
| [28] | This paper uses producer quality information to investigate whether firms segment markets and adapt product quality and prices according to destination country characteristics. Using detailed price and quality data for Brazilian exporters over time, the results document quality-based market segmentation, by which firms raise quality and prices to high-income destinations. A major exchange rate shock and further robustness analysis reinforce the hypothesis that adjustments in quality and prices happen within the firm and that differences in prices across destinations may be driven by investments in product quality and demand for high quality. |
| [29] | This paper presents theory and evidence from highly disaggregated Chinese data that tariff reductions induce a country's producers to upgrade the quality of the goods that they export. The paper first documents two stylized facts regarding the effect of trade liberalization on export prices and its relation with product differentiation. Next, the paper extends Melitz's (2003) model of trade with heterogeneous firms by introducing endogenous quality choice. The model predicts that a reduction in the import tariff induces an incumbent importer/exporter to increase the quality of its exports and to raise its export price in industries where the scope for quality differentiation is large while to lower its export price in industries where the scope for quality differentiation is small. The predictions are consistent with the stylized facts based on Chinese data and robust to various estimation specifications. |
| [30] | This paper proposes a new mechanism linking trade and wage inequality in developing countries-the quality-upgrading mechanism-and investigates its empirical implications in panel data on Mexican manufacturing plants. In a model with heterogeneous plants and quality differentiatiation, more productive plants produce higher-quality goods than less productive plants, and they pay higher wages to maintain a higher-quality workforce. Only the most productive plants enter the export market, and Southern exporters produce higher-quality goods for export than for the domestic market, to appeal to richer Northern consumers. An exchange-rate devaluation leads more-productive Southern plants to increase exports, upgrade quality, and raise wages relative to less-productive plants within the same industry, increasing within-industry wage dispersion. Using the late-1994 peso crisis as a source of variation and a variety of proxies for plant productivity, I find that initially more productive plants increased the export share of sales, white-collar wages, blue-collar wages, the relative wage of white-collar workers, and ISO 9000 certification more than initially less productive plants during the peso crisis period and that these differential changes were greater than in periods without devaluations before and after the crisis period. These findings support the hypothesis that quality upgrading induced by the exchange-rate shock increased within-industry wage inequality. |
| [31] | We develop a model of international trade with two sources of firm heterogeneity: "productivity" and "caliber". Productivity is modeled as is standard in the literature. Caliber is the ability to produce quality using few fixed inputs. While there is no quality restriction to sell domestically, exporting requires the attainment of minimum quality levels. Compared to single-attribute models of firm heterogeneity emphasizing either productivity or the ability to produce quality, our model provides a more nuanced characterization of firms' export behavior. In particular, it explains the empirical fact that firm size is not monotonically related with export status; there are small firms that export while there are large firms that only operate in the domestic market. The model also delivers novel testable predictions. Conditional on size, exporters sell products of higher quality and at higher prices, they pay higher wages and use capital more intensively. We test these predictions using data on manufacturing establishments in India, the U.S., Chile, and Colombia. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical predictions. |
| [32] | This paper presents a tractable formalization and an empirical investigation of the quality-complementarity hypothesis, the hypothesis that input quality and plant productivity are complementary in generating output quality. We embed this complementarity in a general-equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous, monopolistically competitive firms, extending Melitz (2003), and show that it generates distinctive implications for two simple, observable within-sector correlations -- between output prices and plant size and between input prices and plant size -- and for how those correlations vary across sectors. Using uniquely rich and representative data on the unit values of outputs and inputs of Colombian manufacturing plants, we then document three facts: (1) output prices are positively correlated with plant size within industries on average; (2) input prices are positively correlated with plant size within industries on average; and (3) both correlations are more positive in industries with more scope for quality differentiation, as measured by the advertising and R&D intensity of U.S. industries. The predicted and observed correlations between export status and input and output prices are similar to those for plant size. We present additional evidence that market power of either final-good producers or input suppliers does not fully explain the empirical patterns we observe. These findings are consistent with the predictions of our model and difficult to reconcile with alternative models that impose symmetry or homogeneity of either inputs or outputs. We interpret the results as broadly supportive of the quality-complementarity hypothesis. |
| [33] | In this paper we analyze a turn to "quality" in both food production and consumption. We argue that quality in the food sector, as it is being asserted at the present time, is closely linked to nature and the local embeddedness of supply chains. We thus outline the broad contours of this shift and discuss the most appropriate theoretical approaches. We consider political economy, actor-network theory, and conventions theory and argue that, whereas political economy has proved useful in the analysis of globalization, it may prove less so in the examination of quality. We concentrate, therefore, upon actor-network theory and conventions theory and show that the former allows nature to be brought to the center of analytical attention but provides few tools for the analysis of quality, especially in the context of the food sector. Conventions theory, on the other hand, links together a range of aspects found in food supply chains and allows us to consider the establishment of quality as a system of negotiation between specific qualities. We illustrate possible uses of the approach through a brief consideration of food supply chains in Wales. |
| [34] | The sociospatial structure of global industries may be characterized by difference and plurality as much as by the coordination of practices over space. One important factor that shapes these dynamics in contemporary food industries is the quality of products. Challenging recent perspectives that define quality as an alternative to global, industrial forms of production, this analysis finds that quality is also important for industrial food production and for the global geography of the surimi seafood industry. Surimi, a fish paste used in a wide assortment of products, such as fish cakes and imitation crab, was once exclusively Japanese. Now, this industry is global in scope, with production and consumption encompassing sites across Asia, the Americas, and Europe. Interactions among types of products, market differences, processing strategies, and the characteristics of fish form fluid definitions of product quality that shape patterns of supply and demand within the global industry. Terming these spatial interactions a "geography of quality," this article shows that differences in how quality is constructed influence the development of dynamic transnational trade patterns and new regional industries in each market. This changing geography of quality provides insight into the creation and maintenance of a geographically differentiated yet still global-scale industry. The geography of quality in this industry is such that relative dis-integration between different commodity chains characterizes the movement toward global-scale production and consumption. |
| [35] | . 财政分权和地方政府竞争是我国经济转型发展的两个重要制度特征,本文研究了它们对我国出口增长的促进机制。动态博弈模型分析表明,中央政府给予地方政府的留存税收比例越高,即财政分权程度越高,会导致地方企业选择出口;地方政府竞争激烈程度提高也有相同效应。这两者从转型经济特有的制度层面共同解释了我国出口整体高速扩张的制度背景。我国省级动态面板数据的系统GMM估计结果也验证了财政分权和地方政府竞争促进了各省份出口的增长,并且这种促进作用在选择不同控制变量、采取差分GMM和混合回归估计等情况下保持稳健。 . 财政分权和地方政府竞争是我国经济转型发展的两个重要制度特征,本文研究了它们对我国出口增长的促进机制。动态博弈模型分析表明,中央政府给予地方政府的留存税收比例越高,即财政分权程度越高,会导致地方企业选择出口;地方政府竞争激烈程度提高也有相同效应。这两者从转型经济特有的制度层面共同解释了我国出口整体高速扩张的制度背景。我国省级动态面板数据的系统GMM估计结果也验证了财政分权和地方政府竞争促进了各省份出口的增长,并且这种促进作用在选择不同控制变量、采取差分GMM和混合回归估计等情况下保持稳健。 |
| [36] | . 本文从政府补贴这只"看得见的手"以及市场竞争这只"看不见的手"的视角出发,实证研究二者对中国企业出口产品质量的影响。研究发现,政府补贴这只"看得见的手"对企业出口产品质量造成的是抑制效应,而竞争这只"看不见的手"对企业出口产品质量造成的是促进效应。不同所有制类型企业中,政府补贴对外资企业并没有形成抑制效应,而竞争对国有企业出口产品质量并未产生促进效应。政府补贴对企业出口产品质量产生抑制效应的机理是:获得政府补贴(生产成本降低)→低价格竞争→低利润发展模式(对生产性政府补贴的依赖)→企业出口产品质量提升内生动力缺失。而竞争对企业出口产品质量造成促进效应的机理是:行业竞争→企业创新研发→企业出口产品质量内生动力的提升。 . 本文从政府补贴这只"看得见的手"以及市场竞争这只"看不见的手"的视角出发,实证研究二者对中国企业出口产品质量的影响。研究发现,政府补贴这只"看得见的手"对企业出口产品质量造成的是抑制效应,而竞争这只"看不见的手"对企业出口产品质量造成的是促进效应。不同所有制类型企业中,政府补贴对外资企业并没有形成抑制效应,而竞争对国有企业出口产品质量并未产生促进效应。政府补贴对企业出口产品质量产生抑制效应的机理是:获得政府补贴(生产成本降低)→低价格竞争→低利润发展模式(对生产性政府补贴的依赖)→企业出口产品质量提升内生动力缺失。而竞争对企业出口产品质量造成促进效应的机理是:行业竞争→企业创新研发→企业出口产品质量内生动力的提升。 |
| [37] | ABSTRACT Understanding and conceptualizing the complexities of the contemporary global economy is a challenging but vitally important task. In this article, we critically evaluate the potential of one interpretive framework—the global production networks (GPN) perspective—for analysing the global economy and its impacts on territorial development. After situating the approach in relation to other cognate chain/network approaches, the article proceeds to review and evaluate a number of underdeveloped areas that need to be understood and incorporated more fully if the framework is to deliver on its early potential. The article concludes with a consideration of the key research issues facing work in this area. |
| [38] | This article outlines a framework for the analysis of economic integration and its relation to the asymmetries of economic and social development. Consciously breaking with state-centric forms of social science, it argues for a research agenda that is more adequate to the exigencies and consequences of globalization than has traditionally been the case in 'development studies'. Drawing on earlier attempts to analyse the cross-border activities of firms, their spatial configurations and developmental consequences, the article moves beyond these by proposing the framework of the 'global production network' (GPN). It explores the conceptual elements involved in this framework in some detail and then turns to sketch a stylized example of a GPN. The article concludes with a brief indication of the benefits that could be delivered by research informed by GPN analysis. |
| [39] | ABSTRACT This paper offers an organizational perspective on the firm in new economic geographies. It starts with the premise of the firm as a production function in neoclassical economics and a cost minimisation device in transaction cost economics. By pointing out the inadequacy in these mainstream economic perspectives on the firm, I draw upon recent behavioral and managerial theories to develop a relational conception of the firm as social networks in which actors are embedded in ongoing power relations and discursive processes. In further elaborating this relational perspective on the firm as an organisational device, I show how the firm is governed through social relations among different actors, how it is a site of contested ideologies and political representations among these actors, and how space and geographical scales matter in shaping its social construction. Taken together, this organisational perspective aims to shift our research agenda in urban and regional development from promoting the growth of the firm per se to understanding how the firm serves as a relational institution that connects spatially differentiated actors in different places and regions. |
| [40] | In the complex set of economic, social, political and cultural processes which interact to create a continuously changing and uneven geographical structure of economic activity the role of the business enterprise remains central. This paper first addresses Walker's (1989) critique of 'corporate geography' and argues that business organization does matter. Particular emphasis is placed upon the need to take a broader socio-organizational view of the business enterprise in which transactional relationships between, and within, business organizations are conceptualized in terms of differential power relationships within interdependent production systems. Both intra- and inter-firm structures are best seen as complex networks of enormous diversity. Business organizations organize production systems but are themselves produced through an historical process of embedding. Geographical industrialization needs to be seen, therefore, not only in terms of changing industry trajectories but also in terms of dynamic webs of power relationships. |
| [41] | Global production networks (GPN) are organizational platforms through which actors in different regional and national economies compete and cooperate for a greater share of value creation, transformation, and capture through geographically dispersed economic activity. Existing conceptual frameworks on global value chains (GVC) and what we termGPN 1.0tend to under-theorize the origins and dynamics of these organizational platforms and to overemphasize their governance typologies (e.g., modular, relational, and captive modes in GVC theory) or analytical categories (e.g., power and embeddedness in GPN 1.0). Building on this expanding literature, our article aims to contribute toward the reframing of existing GPN-GVC debates and the development of a more dynamic theory of global production networks that can better explain the emergence of different firm-specific activities, strategic network effects, and territorial outcomes in the global economy. It is part of a wider initiative鈥擥PN 2.0 in short鈥攖hat seeks to offer novel theoretical insights into why and how the organization and coordination of global production networks varies significantly within and across different industries, sectors, and economies. Taking an actor-centered focus toward theory development, we tackle a significant gap in existing work by systematically conceptualizing thecausal driversof global production networks in terms of their competitive dynamics (optimizing cost-capability ratios, market imperatives, and financial discipline) and risk environments. These capitalist dynamics are theorized as critical independent variables that shape the four main strategies adopted by economic actors in (re)configuring their global production networks and, ultimately, the developmental outcomes in different industries, regions, and countries. |
| [42] | La poussée régionale provient de l’agglomération géographique des activités économiques et elle s’exprime par des augmentations de la productivité nationale. Différentes preuves statistiques ont été rassemblées, militant en faveur de l’existence d’effets de poussée régionale dans des pays à revenus faibles et intermédiaires. Ces effets trouvent leur origine dans différentes externalités et les rendements croissants d’échelle et de variété sont abordés en termes théoriques. Des preuves supplémentaires de leur existence sont données à travers un bref survol d’exemples portant sur des régions d’Afrique, d’Asie et d’Amérique latine. Plusieurs observations sont proposées quant aux possibilités d’identifier des politiques et des pratiques de développement viables, destinées à renforcer les propriétés qui favorisent la productivité des régions dans les pays à revenus faibles et intermédiaires.AbstractRegional push derives from the geographic agglomeration of economic activities, and is expressed in increments to national productivity. Various pieces of statistical evidence in favour of the existence of regional push effects in low- and middle-income economies are marshalled. The origins of these effects in different sorts of externalities and increasing returns to agglomerative scale and scope are analysed in theoretical terms. Further evidence for the existence of these effects is displayed in a brief review of published case studies of African, Asian, and Latin American regions. A number of observations are then offered on the possibilities of identifying viable developmental policies and practices directed to enhancing the productivity-boosting properties of regions in low- and middle-income economies. |
| [43] | Abstract Abstract: The role of space and place in shaping the transformation of firms and industries and the impact of such transformations on the wider processes of territorial development at local, regional, national, and global scales are basic research issues in economic geography. Such analyses tend to be compartmentalized, focusing on a specific economic activity or on a specific territory, rather than on the relationships between them. It is difficult simultaneously to conceptualize economic activities (including such phenomena as firms, industries, and other types of systems of networked economic activity), on the one hand, and territorially defined economies, on the other. In this paper, we address the interconnections between economic activities and territories through an exploration of the mutually constitutive relationships between firms and territories: the firm-territory nexus. The focus of our analysis is the nexus of three major dimensions—firms, industrial systems, and territories—embedded in turn in the overall macro dimension of governance systems. |
| [44] | |
| [45] | . 本文通过102个主要国家的SITC五位码贸易数据计算了我国2001—2009年24个制造业行业的出口复杂度（ESI）,以此衡量各行业在全球价值链中的地位,并实证检验了全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响。研究发现,总体而言,全球生产网络促进了我国制造业价值链提升,资本密集度和高技术资本密集度也可以显著提高价值链地位,但经济自由度、研发对我国制造业价值链提升的积极作用并不显著。进一步的研究发现,全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响存在显著的行业差异性,具体表现为,与以零部件贸易为主的行业相比,全球生产网络对价值链提升的积极影响在以半成品贸易为主的行业中更为显著;在资本技术密集型行业中,全球生产网络有助于提升我国制造业的价值链地位,但在劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业中这一作用并不明显。 . 本文通过102个主要国家的SITC五位码贸易数据计算了我国2001—2009年24个制造业行业的出口复杂度（ESI）,以此衡量各行业在全球价值链中的地位,并实证检验了全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响。研究发现,总体而言,全球生产网络促进了我国制造业价值链提升,资本密集度和高技术资本密集度也可以显著提高价值链地位,但经济自由度、研发对我国制造业价值链提升的积极作用并不显著。进一步的研究发现,全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响存在显著的行业差异性,具体表现为,与以零部件贸易为主的行业相比,全球生产网络对价值链提升的积极影响在以半成品贸易为主的行业中更为显著;在资本技术密集型行业中,全球生产网络有助于提升我国制造业的价值链地位,但在劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业中这一作用并不明显。 |
| [46] | Abstract This article uses a global commodity chains perspective to analyze the social and organizational dimensions of international trade networks. In linking international trade and industrial upgrading, this article specifies: the mechanisms by which organizational learning occurs in trade networks; typical trajectories from assembly to OEM and OBM export roles; and the organizational conditions that facilitate industrial upgrading moves such as the shift from assembly to full-package networks. The empirical focus is the apparel industry, with an emphasis on Asia. |
| [47] | We develop an equilibrium model of industrial structure in which the organization of firms is endogenous. Differentiated consumer products can be produced either by vertically integrated firms or by pairs of specialized companies. Production of each variety of consumer good requires a unique, specialized component. Vertically integrated firms can manufacture the components they need in the quantity and type that maximizes profits, but they face a relatively high cost due to diseconomies of scope. Specialized firms can produce at lower cost, but outsourcing imposes costs due to search frictions and imperfect contracting. We study the equilibrium mode of organization when inputs are fully or partially specialized. We consider how the degree of competition in the industry, the nature of the search technology, the division of bargaining strength between intermediate and final producers, and the sensitivity of manufacturing costs to input characteristics affect the equilibrium organizational form. |
| [48] | Abstract This paper examines the determinants of vertical specialization choices and the implications of those different choices on international technology diffusion. Vertical specialization is a dominant feature of the international economy, it can take place through FDI and intra-firm trade as well as through arm's length import strategy. Following the models of Grossman and Helpman (2002) and of Antras and Helpman (2003), we present a multinomial logit analysis of the economic determinants of vertical specialization at the firm level. We extend our analysis to the implications of vertical specialization on technology spillovers. In fact, recent studies on spillovers have presented strong evidence on the effectiveness of Backward and For- ward linkages for international technology diffusion (Smarzynska (2002)). More precisely we verify the impact of the different vertical specialization strategies on the innovative activity of firms. Our analysis is based on a rich data set of vertical tarde and R&D activity by Frenchfirms for the year 1999. |
| [49] | To analyze the effect of vertical technology transfer on industrial development in lesser developed countries (LDCs), we develop a model in which the technology transferred to an LDC supplier by a developed country (DC) importer can diffuse to other LDC firms. Surprisingly, even if such diffusion in the LDC market leads to entry into the DC market, it can benefit both the initial DC importer and its initial LDC supplier by reducing the double marginalization problem. This effect does not depend upon whether firms compete in prices or quantities and exists even when the number of entrants into each market is endogenously determined. |
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| [51] | Yang C. Strategic coupling of regional development in global production networks: redistribution of Taiwanese personal computer investment from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta, China, Regional Studies. From the perspective of strategic coupling of regional development in global production networks (GPN), this paper attempts to explore the dynamics and patterns of the redistribution of Taiwanese personal computer (PC) investment from the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China since the early 2000s. Through firm-level interviews and case studies, it argues that the redistribution is resulted from divergent strategic coupling between respective Taiwanese firms in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta and their lead firm counterparts fostered by different local institutional initiatives. The study further elucidates that regional development in the global economy has turned increasingly to trans-local dynamics. Yang C. L'association stratégique de l'aménagement du territoire dans les réseaux de production mondialisés: la redistribution de l'investissement taiwanais en ordinateurs personnels du delta de la Pearl au delta de la Yangtze, en Chine, Regional Studies. Du point de vue de l'association stratégique de l'aménagement du territoire dans les réseaux de production mondialisés, cet article cherche à examiner pendant les dix dernières années la dynamique et la répartition de la redistribution de l'investissement taiwanais en ordinateurs personnels du delta de la Pearl (PRD) au delta de la Yangtze (YRD) en Chine. A partir des interviews auprès des entreprises et des études de cas, on soutient que la redistribution résulte de l'association stratégique divergente entre les entreprises taiwanaises situées dans la PRD et la YRD et leurs homologues leaders qui se sont développés suite à diverses initiatives institutionnelles locales. En outre, l'étude montre que, dans le contexte de l'économie mondiale, l'aménagement du territoire porte de plus en plus sur la dynamique trans-locale. Association stratégique69Aménagement du territoire69Réseaux de production mondialisés69Redistribution de l'IDE69Delta de la Pearl69Delta de la Yangtze Yang C. Die strategische Kopplung von Regionalentwicklung in globalen Produktionsnetzen: Umverteilung taiwanesischer PC-Investitionen vom Pearl River Delta zum Yangtze River Delta in China, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird versucht, die Dynamik und die Abl01ufe bei der Umverteilung taiwanesischer PC-Investitionen vom Pearl River Delta (PRD) zum Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China w01hrend der letzten 10 Jahre aus der Perspektive der strategischen Kopplung der regionalen Entwicklung in globalen Produktionsnetzen zu analysieren. Anhand von Interviews und Fallstudien auf Firmenebene wird argumentiert, dass die Umverteilung durch eine divergente strategische Kopplung zwischen taiwanesischen Firmen im PRD und YRD und ihren entsprechenden leitenden Firmen verursacht und durch verschiedene lokale institutionelle Initiativen gef02rdert wird. Wie aus der Studie weiter hervorgeht, hat die regionale Entwicklung in der globalen Wirtschaft die zunehmend translokale Dynamik ver01ndert. Strategische Kopplung69Regionalentwicklung69Globalisierte Produktionsnetze69Umverteilung von ausl01ndischen Direktinvestitionen69Pearl River Delta69Yangtze River Delta Yang C. Conexión estratégica del desarrollo regional en las redes de producción global: redistribución de la inversión en PC en Taiwán desde el delta del río Pearl hasta el delta del río Yangtzé en China, Regional Studies. Desde la perspectiva de la conexión estratégica del desarrollo regional en las redes de producción global, en este artículo intento analizar las dinámicas y los modelos de redistribución de la inversión en PC en Taiwán desde el delta del río Pearl hasta el delta del río Yangtzé en China en los últimos diez a09os. Mediante entrevistas a nivel empresarial y estudios prácticos, sostengo que la redistribución es el resultado de una conexión estratégica divergente entre las empresas de Taiwán en el delta del río Pearl y el delta del río Yangtzé y sus socios líderes fomentados por diferentes iniciativas institucionales en un ámbito local. En este estudio también explico que el desarrollo regional en la economía global ha transformado las dinámicas cada vez más translocales. Conexión estratégica69Desarrollo regional69Redes de producción global69Redistribución de la IDE69Delta del río Pearl69Delta del río Yangtzé |
| [52] | Dramatic changes are occurring in the nature of international trade. Production processes increasingly involve a sequential, vertical trading chain stretching across many countries, with each country specializing in particular stages of a good's production sequence. We document a key aspect of these vertical linkages--the use of imported inputs in producing goods that are exported -- which we call vertical specialization. Using input-output tables from the OECD and emerging market countries we estimate that vertical specialization accounts for up to 30 percent of world exports, and has grown as much as 40 percent in the last twenty-five years. The key insight about why vertical specialization has grown so much lies with the fact that trade barriers (tariffs and transportation costs) are incurred repeatedly as goods-in-process cross multiple borders. Hence, even small reductions in tariffs and transport costs can lead to extensive vertical specialization, large trade growth, and large gains from trade. We formally illustrate these points by developing an extension of the Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson ricardian trade model.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) |
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| [56] | I develop and implement a methodology for obtaining plant-level estimates of product quality from revenue and physical output data. Intuitively, firms that sell large quantities of output conditional on price are classified as high quality producers. I use this method to decompose cross-plant variation in price and export status into a quality and an efficiency margin. The empirical results show that prices are increasing in quality and decreasing in efficiency. However, selection into exporting is driven mainly by quality. The finding that changes in quality and efficiency have different impact on the firm's export decision is shown to be inconsistent with the traditional iceberg trade cost formulation and points to the importance of per unit transport costs. |
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| [58] | If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources. Removing this misallocation accounts for a substantial share of the overall gain in productivity associated with quota removal. |
| [59] | . 鉴于目前测度贸易成本广为应用的传统引力模型方法和诺维（Novy）方法的不足，本文延续安德森（Andersen）多边一般均衡贸易建模思路，构建了具有微观基础可行性更强的出口贸易成本测度方程，并进行了中国经验数据检验，准确刻画双边贸易关系演进过程。结果表明，本世纪以来中国对主要贸易伙伴出口贸易成本整体呈现加速下降的趋势，中国与亚太地区贸易成本明显小于欧洲地区。 . 鉴于目前测度贸易成本广为应用的传统引力模型方法和诺维（Novy）方法的不足，本文延续安德森（Andersen）多边一般均衡贸易建模思路，构建了具有微观基础可行性更强的出口贸易成本测度方程，并进行了中国经验数据检验，准确刻画双边贸易关系演进过程。结果表明，本世纪以来中国对主要贸易伙伴出口贸易成本整体呈现加速下降的趋势，中国与亚太地区贸易成本明显小于欧洲地区。 |
| [60] | International trade costs are of vital importance because they determine trade patterns and therefore economic performance. This paper develops a new micro-founded measure of international trade costs. It is based on a multi-country general equilibrium model of trade that incorporates bilateral "ice-berg" trade costs. The model results in a gravity equation from which the implied trade costs can be easily computed. The trade cost measure is intuitive, takes multilateral resistance into account and yields empirical results that are economically sensible. It is found that during the post-WorldWar II period trade costs have declined markedly. The dispersion of trade costs across countries can best be explained by geographical and historical factors like distance and colonial linkages but also by tariffs and free trade agreements |
| [61] | . |
| [62] | . 传统贸易成本的估计采用缺乏微观基础且基于对称性假设的理论模型,本文利用克服以上缺点的模型,估计了中国与主要贸易伙伴之间制造业各产业的贸易成本,结果显示:1997—2007年,中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易成本最低,下降幅度最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国的贸易成本低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间存在较大的技术"鸿沟",高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,国家亟待调整和出台国际贸易及相关支持政策,引导、促进中国制造业在国际产业价值链中加快升级,减少贸易成本。 . 传统贸易成本的估计采用缺乏微观基础且基于对称性假设的理论模型,本文利用克服以上缺点的模型,估计了中国与主要贸易伙伴之间制造业各产业的贸易成本,结果显示:1997—2007年,中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易成本最低,下降幅度最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国的贸易成本低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间存在较大的技术"鸿沟",高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,国家亟待调整和出台国际贸易及相关支持政策,引导、促进中国制造业在国际产业价值链中加快升级,减少贸易成本。 |
| [63] | . 本文通过将Long（2001）的两部门模型拓展为三部门模型，构建了一个分析出口技术结构演进机制的新框架，并运用经适当修正的Hausmann（2005）模型对2002～2008年中国各省级区域出口技术结构进行了测度。在此基础之上，从国内外两个方面的影响因素出发，对中国出口技术结构演进的动因进行了实证检验。得出的结论主要有：（1）近几年，中国出口技术结构虽然有了大幅度的提升，但并没有Rodrik（2006）等人测度的那么高。（2）中国出口技术结构较高的省份都位于东部地区，虽然产业层面和区域层面的技术结构差异呈进一步扩大的趋势，但未出现“两极分化”。（3）中国出口技术结构演进的动力机制与普通发展中国家并不相同，国家和地区层面演进的根本动力是国内物质资本存量的递增，但物质资本边际效用的区际递减现象明显。（4）中西部地区资本生产性部门非熟练劳动力过多与东部出口价格过低分别导致了中西部熟练劳动力和东部非熟练劳动力对当地出口技术结构呈负效应。 . 本文通过将Long（2001）的两部门模型拓展为三部门模型，构建了一个分析出口技术结构演进机制的新框架，并运用经适当修正的Hausmann（2005）模型对2002～2008年中国各省级区域出口技术结构进行了测度。在此基础之上，从国内外两个方面的影响因素出发，对中国出口技术结构演进的动因进行了实证检验。得出的结论主要有：（1）近几年，中国出口技术结构虽然有了大幅度的提升，但并没有Rodrik（2006）等人测度的那么高。（2）中国出口技术结构较高的省份都位于东部地区，虽然产业层面和区域层面的技术结构差异呈进一步扩大的趋势，但未出现“两极分化”。（3）中国出口技术结构演进的动力机制与普通发展中国家并不相同，国家和地区层面演进的根本动力是国内物质资本存量的递增，但物质资本边际效用的区际递减现象明显。（4）中西部地区资本生产性部门非熟练劳动力过多与东部出口价格过低分别导致了中西部熟练劳动力和东部非熟练劳动力对当地出口技术结构呈负效应。 |
| [64] | . 近年来,全球进口需求结构发生了重大变化,总体上看,资本密集型产品进口占比和劳动密集型产品进口占比下降,资源密集型产品进口占比显著提高,而技术密集型产品进口占比和服务贸易输入占比变化则相对较小。国际需求结构变化必定影响中国出口及出口产业发展,进而影响产业结构变化。运用灰色关联度检验方法检验其具体影响:全球进口需求结构变化与中国产业结构变化之间存在较强的耦合性。但是,在金融危机爆发后,二者之间的关联度有所降低。全球进口需求结构对中国产业结构的影响主要通过外贸渠道的倒逼机制和外资渠道的引导机制来实现。为了有效应对全球进口需求结构变化所带来的影响,中国需要主动采取措施来推动产业结构的转型升级,在国际市场上形成核心竞争力。 . 近年来,全球进口需求结构发生了重大变化,总体上看,资本密集型产品进口占比和劳动密集型产品进口占比下降,资源密集型产品进口占比显著提高,而技术密集型产品进口占比和服务贸易输入占比变化则相对较小。国际需求结构变化必定影响中国出口及出口产业发展,进而影响产业结构变化。运用灰色关联度检验方法检验其具体影响:全球进口需求结构变化与中国产业结构变化之间存在较强的耦合性。但是,在金融危机爆发后,二者之间的关联度有所降低。全球进口需求结构对中国产业结构的影响主要通过外贸渠道的倒逼机制和外资渠道的引导机制来实现。为了有效应对全球进口需求结构变化所带来的影响,中国需要主动采取措施来推动产业结构的转型升级,在国际市场上形成核心竞争力。 |
| [65] | . |
| [66] | . |
| [67] | . 本文结合投入产出表,在考虑到加工贸易后,构建并测算了 1992-2010年中国制造业出口品的复合技术含量、国内技术含量及国内技术含量的贡献指数；利用中国制造业面板数据实证分析了复合技术含量和国内技术 含量的影响因素,结果发现:①中国制造业出口的复合技术含量和国内技术含量总体上呈现了先降后升的变化趋势,而国内技术含量贡献指数总体上趋于下降.②对 于复合技术含量较高的行业而言,其国内技术含量指数即国内技术贡献度普遍较低.③FDI对于复合技术含量和国内技术含量的提升均有显著的积极作用,而进口 贸易则显著为负；资本在长期内具有积极作用,人力资本和研发有助于促进行业FDI的技术外溢. . 本文结合投入产出表,在考虑到加工贸易后,构建并测算了 1992-2010年中国制造业出口品的复合技术含量、国内技术含量及国内技术含量的贡献指数；利用中国制造业面板数据实证分析了复合技术含量和国内技术 含量的影响因素,结果发现:①中国制造业出口的复合技术含量和国内技术含量总体上呈现了先降后升的变化趋势,而国内技术含量贡献指数总体上趋于下降.②对 于复合技术含量较高的行业而言,其国内技术含量指数即国内技术贡献度普遍较低.③FDI对于复合技术含量和国内技术含量的提升均有显著的积极作用,而进口 贸易则显著为负；资本在长期内具有积极作用,人力资本和研发有助于促进行业FDI的技术外溢. |
| [68] | . 本文提出了基于产品与功能双重嵌入结构的全球价值链嵌入水平测算框架，并从理论上论证了全球价值链嵌入程度、嵌入结构与价值来源对出口技术复杂度的影响及其两面性,进而采用二次优化算法对区分加工贸易与一般贸易的非竞争型投入产出表进行估算，得出用以反映全球价值链嵌入程度的各项国外附加值率指标。在此基础上利用2001-2010年中国27个制造部门的面板计量模型检验了国外附加值率对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。研究表明，中国制造业通过参-9全球价值链分工所获取的国外中间投入推动了出口技术复杂度的提升，而相对于原材料、零部件等产品投入，服务投入对技术提升的贡献更大：在控制了国外附加值的直接贡献情况下。来自发达国家的国外附加值对出口制造业的R＆D活动具有抑制作用,更容易形成对链主企业的单向技术依赖和“低端锁定”,而利用其他国家国外附加值所形成的嵌入方式对出口企业自身R＆D能力的依赖程度更强,更有利于出口技术复杂度的提升。 . 本文提出了基于产品与功能双重嵌入结构的全球价值链嵌入水平测算框架，并从理论上论证了全球价值链嵌入程度、嵌入结构与价值来源对出口技术复杂度的影响及其两面性,进而采用二次优化算法对区分加工贸易与一般贸易的非竞争型投入产出表进行估算，得出用以反映全球价值链嵌入程度的各项国外附加值率指标。在此基础上利用2001-2010年中国27个制造部门的面板计量模型检验了国外附加值率对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。研究表明，中国制造业通过参-9全球价值链分工所获取的国外中间投入推动了出口技术复杂度的提升，而相对于原材料、零部件等产品投入，服务投入对技术提升的贡献更大：在控制了国外附加值的直接贡献情况下。来自发达国家的国外附加值对出口制造业的R＆D活动具有抑制作用,更容易形成对链主企业的单向技术依赖和“低端锁定”,而利用其他国家国外附加值所形成的嵌入方式对出口企业自身R＆D能力的依赖程度更强,更有利于出口技术复杂度的提升。 |
