Abstract The carbon trading pilot scheme will provide additional financial support for investment in afforestation carbon sequestration projects. However, the successful implementation of afforestation carbon sequestration projects under this mechanism still faces great uncertainty of economic policies. Considering these characteristics, revealing the critical threshold of investment timing and the option value from the perspective of investors can provide a more comprehensive reference for the optimal decision making of investors and policy making for the government to promote investment in afforestation carbon sequestration projects. Therefore, based on the theory of optimal investment timing of real options, the value of carbon sequestration afforestation project is measured by the Faustmann-Hartman model, and the analytical expression of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration projects in the early planning stage and project construction stage is solved by the dynamic programming method. Then, the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and the investment options value of Pinus elliottii afforestation project are empirically examined and simulated. The results show that: (1) The investment options value of Pinus elliottii afforestation carbon sequestration project is 0.12 yuan/hm2 in the project planning and filing stage and 0.59 yuan/hm2 in the project construction stage, respectively. The critical threshold of optimal investment timing is 79.23 yuan/t and 57.33 yuan/t, respectively. Rational investors will only invest immediately when the carbon price are above the critical threshold, otherwise they will choose to delay their investment. (2) Carbon price volatility, carbon sequestration transaction cost, and labor price variables have significant positive effects on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and investment option value of Pinus elliottii afforestation project for carbon sequestration. With the increase of value of the above variables, the investment options value and the critical threshold of optimal investment timing will also increase, but it will delay the timing of investment. (3) The increase of timber price and the success rate of project filing will decrease the critical threshold of optimal investment timing. That is, the increase of value of the above variables can shorten the time for investors to delay investment. The study concludes that in order to promote investment of afforestation carbon sequestration project and for forestry to play the role in coping with and adapting to climate change, relevant government authorities need to establish and improve carbon price fluctuation control policies and project record management policies. At the same time, comprehensive measures should be taken to reduce carbon sequestration transaction costs. In addition, considering the long-term and public welfare characteristics of forestry investment and the rising trend of labor factor prices in China, it is necessary to establish and implement forestry carbon sequestration subsidy system in the future. Keywords:carbon trading;afforestation carbon sequestration project;investment timing;real options;dynamic programming method
PDF (5284KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 曹先磊. 碳交易机制下造林碳汇项目投资时机与投资期权价值分析. 资源科学[J], 2020, 42(5): 825-839 doi:10.18402/resci.2020.05.03 CAO Xianlei. Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism. RESOURCES SCIENCE[J], 2020, 42(5): 825-839 doi:10.18402/resci.2020.05.03
Table 3 表3 表3单位面积湿地松造林碳汇成本投入 Table 3Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area
项目
单位
数量
单价/元
总金额/元
营造林成本
31920.0
造林支出
9120.0
清山用工
工日/hm2
22.5
140.0
3150.0
整地用工
工日/hm2
18.0
140.0
2520.0
栽植用工
工日/hm2
12.0
140.0
1680.0
扩穴培土用工
工日/hm2
7.5
140.0
1050.0
种苗费用
株/hm2
1800.0
0.4
720.0
前3年抚育总支出(共5次)
元/hm2
—
—
22800.0
除杂抚育用工
工日/hm2
75.0
140.0
10500.0
施肥抚育用工
工日/hm2
30.0
140.0
4200.0
间伐抚育支出
工日/hm2
22.5
140.0
3150.0
化肥费用
kg/hm2
1650.0
3.0
4950.0
林业三防年投入a
元/hm2/a
1.0
1500.0
1500.0
造林当年基础设施建设
元/hm2
1.0
1500.0
1500.0
木材采运费用
m3
—
170.0
—
碳汇交易成本b
元/hm2/a
1.0
59.5
59.5
注: a. 主要是指防火、防病、防盗投入;b. 各国****主要采用威廉姆森交易费用分类方式研究碳汇交易成本,即根据林业碳汇项目的实施程序所发生的各项费用来划分和衡量碳汇的各项交易成本。参考已有文献[38,39],本文中把碳汇交易成本主要界定为项目实施过程中发生的编写PDD文件费用(30万元/项)、项目审定成本(20万元/项)、监测成本(20万元/次)与核证成本(15万元/次)[40];相应的单位面积碳汇交易成本由整个项目的碳汇交易成本除以项目总面积所得。
Table 4 表4 表4造林碳汇项目投资时机临界阈值和投资期权价值的计算结果 Table 4Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
Figure 1Impact of carbon sequestration price volatility on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
Figure 2Impact of carbon sequestration transaction cost on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
Figure 3Impact of project filing success rate on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
Figure 4Impact of timber price changes on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
BastinJ F, FinegoldY, GarciaC, et al. The global tree restoration potential [J]. Science, 2019,365(6448):76-79. DOI:10.1126/science.aax0848URLPMID:31273120 [本文引用: 2] The restoration of trees remains among the most effective strategies for climate change mitigation. We mapped the global potential tree coverage to show that 4.4 billion hectares of canopy cover could exist under the current climate. Excluding existing trees and agricultural and urban areas, we found that there is room for an extra 0.9 billion hectares of canopy cover, which could store 205 gigatonnes of carbon in areas that would naturally support woodlands and forests. This highlights global tree restoration as our most effective climate change solution to date. However, climate change will alter this potential tree coverage. We estimate that if we cannot deviate from the current trajectory, the global potential canopy cover may shrink by ~223 million hectares by 2050, with the vast majority of losses occurring in the tropics. Our results highlight the opportunity of climate change mitigation through global tree restoration but also the urgent need for action.
NewellR G, StavinsR N. Climate change and forest sinks: Factors affecting the costs of carbon sequestration [J]. Journal of Environmental Economics & Management, 2000,40(3):211-235. [本文引用: 2]
PanY, BirdseyR A, FangJ Y, et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests [J]. Science, 2011,333(6045):988-933. DOI:10.1126/science.1201609URLPMID:21764754 [本文引用: 1] The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 +/- 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 +/- 0.7 Pg C year(-1) from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 +/- 0.5 Pg C year(-1) partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 +/- 0.5 Pg C year(-1). Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 +/- 0.8 Pg C year(-1), with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.
VanKooten G C, BinkleyC S, DelcourtG. Effect of carbon taxes and subsidies on optimal forest rotation age and supply of carbon services [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995,77(2):365-374. [本文引用: 1]
BenítezP, MccallumI, ObersteinerM, et al. Global Supply for Carbon Sequestration: Identifying Least-Cost Afforestation Sites under Country Risk Consideration [R]. Laxenburg: IIASAIR, 2004-04-022, 2004. [本文引用: 1]
[ ZhengQ H, ZhouC G, WeiH H, et al. National determined contribution in response to climate change and its forestry countermeasures [J]. World Forestry Research, 2019,32(2):1-6.] [本文引用: 1]
ArayaM M, HofstadO. Monetary incentives to avoid deforestation under the reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+ climate change mitigation scheme in Tanzania [J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2016,21(3):1-23. [本文引用: 1]
[ KongF B. Forest response to global climate change research and research policy mechanism in China [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2010, (7):105-109.] [本文引用: 1]
[ JiangH, ZhangD W. Incentives and property rights arrangement for promoting forestry investment [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2001, (1):8-14.] [本文引用: 1]
[ KongF B. Analysis on the mechanism change and scale structure of forestry investment in China [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2008, (9):91-96.] [本文引用: 1]
[ ZengY Y, WuB H, ZhouC X, et al. Design of carbon trading market to support forest ecological compensation [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2014,35(6):67-76.] [本文引用: 1]
[ CaoX L, ChengB D. Market development of forestry carbon sequestration project of China certified emission reduction: Current situation, challenges and suggestions [J]. Environmental Protection, 2018,46(15):27-34.] [本文引用: 2]
[ JinT, WuW G, LiuQ, et al. Risk assessment model of forestry-based CCER project and its application: A case study of Anji bamboo forest sink project [J]. World Forestry Research, 2018,31(4):91-96.] [本文引用: 1]
[ LongF, ShenY Q, QiH B, et al. Forest carbon sequestration pricing mechanism based on enterprises’ demand for carbon emission reduction [J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020,56(2):164-173.] [本文引用: 1]
[ XinJ, ZhaoC Y. The volatility analysis of Chinese carbon trading market: Based on the MS-VAR model [J]. Soft Science, 2018,32(11):134-137.] [本文引用: 2]
[ ZhangY. Study on the driving factors of China’s carbon trade price: A dual perspective based on market fundamentals and policy information [J]. Social Science Journal, 2018, (1):111-120.] [本文引用: 2]
MyersS. Determinants of corporate borrowing [J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1977,5(2):147-175. [本文引用: 1]
[ YuP P. Evaluating renewable energy investment options with uncertainty under volatile international carbon prices: A real options approach [J]. Journal of International Trade, 2012, (5):94-104.] [本文引用: 5]
BernankeB S. The determinants of investment: Another look [J]. American Economic Review, 1983,73(2):71-75. [本文引用: 1]
McdonaldR, SiegelD. The value of waiting to invest [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1986,101(4):707-728. [本文引用: 1]
DixitA. Investment and hysteresis [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1992,6(1):107-132. [本文引用: 1]
[ WenD M, JiangX C, MengK X. Valuation of the right to use sea areas based on the real options approach [J]. Resources Science, 2016,38(5):858-870.] [本文引用: 4]
YinR. Combining forest-level analysis with options valuation approach: A new framework for assessing forestry investment [J]. Forest Science, 2001,47(4):475-483. [本文引用: 1]
Duku KaakyireA, NanangD M. Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis [J]. Forest Policy & Economics, 2004,6(6):539-552. [本文引用: 2]
BrennanM J, SchwartzE S. Evaluating natural resource investments [J]. The Journal of Business, 1985,58(2):135-157. [本文引用: 2]
KallioM, KuulaM, OinonenS. Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012,217(2):428-438. [本文引用: 1]
ManleyB. How does real option value compare with Faustmann value in the context of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme? [J]. Forest Policy and Economics, 2013,30:14-22. [本文引用: 2]
[ ZhuX T, ZhangS W. The value evaluation model of forestry investment projects based on real options [J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University (Social Sciences), 2018,17(3):69-77.] [本文引用: 1]
[ LiZ J, ZhangS G, SunX M, et al. Optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation by real options approach [J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2012,48(5):61-66.] [本文引用: 1]
[ HeX B, WangD M, ZengS H. Valuation for forestry investment projects with carbon sequestration benefits: Base on real option pricing theory [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017,25(3):39-48.] [本文引用: 2]
[ HeX B, ZhangS, WangD M, et al. Research on investment decision-making design and simulation of forestry carbon sequestration project based on real option pricing theory [J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2019,28(2):139-147.] [本文引用: 1]
DixitA K, PindyckR S. Investment under Uncertainty[M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. [本文引用: 2]
K?thkeM, DieterM. Effects of carbon sequestration rewards on forest management: An empirical application of adjusted Faustmann Formulae [J]. Forest Policy & Economics, 2010,12(8):589-597. [本文引用: 1]
[ CaoX L, ZhangY. Analysis on the China certified emission reductions, economic value and its sensitivity of Pinus Kesiya var. langbianensis afforestation project in Yunnan Province [J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2017,26(2):234-242.] [本文引用: 3]
[ OuY L. A preliminary study on the growth rule of Pinus elliottii in Yueyang City [J]. Hunan Forestry Science & Technology, 1993,20(2):17-21.] [本文引用: 1]
PearsonT R H, BrownS, SohngenB, et al. Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector [J]. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2014,19(8):1209-1222. [本文引用: 4]
GalikC S, CooleyD M, BakerJ S. Analysis of the production and transaction costs of forest carbon offset projects in the USA [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2012,112(1):128-136. [本文引用: 4]
[ CaoX L, ZhangY. Dynamic accounting on the development costs of China Certified Emission Reduction issued by Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen afforestation and reforestation project [J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2019,34(3):43-49.] [本文引用: 2]
[ HeG M, WangP, XuB, et al. Change analysis of international forestry carbon trading and its enlightenment on China [J]. World Forestry Research, 2018,31(5):1-6.] [本文引用: 2]