关键词:脆弱性评价;自然-社会系统;乡镇尺度;主要贡献因子;河西地区 Abstract Vulnerability is important content and a hot issue in the study of global environmental change and regional sustainable development. Based on vulnerability assessment modeling, contribution of factors modeling and the entropy-right method, we constructed an evaluation system for vulnerability in a natural-social system. Exposure, sensibility, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of each village and town in Hexi area were analyzed. The contribution of each index and feature factors were also analyzed. We found that medium, higher and high vulnerability areas occupied 70.85% of the whole area in Hexi. The vulnerability degree was high and the vulnerability of southern mountain areas was higher than northern areas at lower altitudes. From the perspective of three continental river basins, the highest level of vulnerability appeared in Shule River Basin, and the vulnerability of the Black River Basin took second place, and that of the Shiyang River Basin was the lowest. Regions considering the adaptive capacity degree of natural system, sensibility degree of the social-economic system, sensibility degree of natural system and exposure degree of natural system as the main contribution factor occupied 91.77%, 87.23%, 67.85% and 56.53% of the whole area in Hexi, so reduced the adaptive capacity degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the social-economic system and the exposure degree of the natural system is the key to reducing vulnerability in Hexi. Only by doing this can we improve our living environment.
2.2.1 评价指标的选择 在科学性、指导性、针对性和可操作性等评价指标遴选原则的指导下[39],以标准层(暴露度、敏感性和适应能力)、要素层(自然暴露度、社会经济暴露度、自然敏感性、社会经济敏感性、自然适应能力和社会经济适应能力)为研究框架,共遴选出19个评价指标(多年平均气温、多年平均降水量、耕地面积占比、各乡镇总GDP、乡镇人口密度、冰川体积、森林覆盖率、荒漠面积占比、社会总抚养比、乡镇居民生活人均日用水量、单位GDP用水量、单位工业增加值用水量、节水灌溉面积占比、乡镇生态环境用水量、各乡镇农民人均纯收入、第三产业产值比重、粮食产量、九年义务教育在校人数、恩格尔系数)。采用标准层-要素层-指标层逐级递进、细化的方式进行数据组织,构建了河西地区的自然-社会脆弱性评价体系(表1)。 Table 1 表1 表1河西地区自然-社会脆弱性评价体系及各指标权重 Table 1An assessment index system and the weight of each index of natural-social system vulnerability in Hexi area
本文通过脆弱性评价模型,计算出了暴露度指数、敏感性指数、适应能力指数和脆弱性指数,图1中运用自然间断点分级法(Jenks),参照已有研究经验[18,49],分别将暴露度指数、敏感性指数、适应能力指数和脆弱性指数分为5个级别(低度、较低度、中度、较高度、高度)进行分析。 3.1.1 暴露度分析 暴露度是指系统遭受外界环境的胁迫与压力的程度,由所处位置和外界环境的影响决定。本文把暴露度分为五个级别,分别是低度暴露度(0.030~0.093)、较低度暴露度(0.094~0.104)、中度暴露度(0.105~0.115)、较高度暴露度(0.116~0.132)、高度暴露度(0.133~0.173)。如图1a所示,河西地区的低度和较低度暴露度,分别占河西地区面积的24.27%和9.42%;33.67%的区域呈中度暴露度;较高度暴露度和高度暴露度均占河西地区面积的16.32%。从流域来看,疏勒河流域内,除敦煌市内呈高度暴露度、阿克塞哈萨克族自治县和肃北蒙古族自治县内的部分乡镇呈较高度暴露度和中度暴露度外,其他区域均呈低度和较低度暴露度;黑河流域和石羊河流域的暴露度明显呈现出南高北低的态势,海拔较高的南部山区呈高度和较高度暴露度,海拔较低的北部地区呈较低度和低度暴露度。 3.1.2 敏感性分析 敏感性是暴露区域对外界环境的胁迫或压力产生的正负面影响易于感知的程度,系统内部结构决定敏感性的高低,本文把敏感性划分成五个级别,分别是低度敏感性(0.030~0.091)、较低度敏感性(0.092~0.123)、中度敏感性(0.124~0.156)、较高度敏感性(0.157~0.192)、高度敏感性(0.193~0.272),如图1b所示,河西地区多为高度敏感性和较高度敏感性,分别占河西地区面积的33.12%和12.39%,中度敏感性区域占河西地区面积的39.06%;而7.86%和7.57%的河西地区为较低度敏感性和低度敏感性。从流域来看,疏勒河流域整体呈高度、较高度敏感性和中度脆弱性,且呈现南高北低的态势;黑河流域除西部部分乡镇呈现高度和较高度敏感性外,大部分区域呈中度和较低度敏感性;石羊河流域敏感性整体较低,仅祝藏族自治县、永昌县和民勤县部分乡镇呈中度和较高度敏感性。 3.1.3 适应能力分析 适应能力是指系统自身在负面影响下的恢复能力和一定范围内的自身调节能力[50],其与政府政策导向、经济发展和人们的观念密切相关,本文将适应能力划分为以下等级:低度适应能力(0.008~0.017)、较低度适应能力(0.018~0.025)、中度适应能力(0.026~0.036)、较高度适应能力(0.037~0.055)、高度适应能力(0.056~0.014)。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图1河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性空间分布 -->Figure 1Spatial distribution of the natural - social system vulnerability in Hexi area -->
河西地区作为一带一路战略中的重要部分,其区位优势明显,但近年来受全球变化的影响,河西地区各系统要素的脆弱性日益加剧。本文基于脆弱性评价模型、因子贡献度模型和熵权法,定量分析了河西地区各乡镇的自然-社会系统的暴露度、敏感性、适应能力和脆弱性,以及各指标和要素层对自然-社会系统脆弱性的贡献度。结果如下: (1)整体来看,河西地区脆弱程度较高且呈西高东低、南高北低的态势,且南部高海拔山区的脆弱性明显高于北部低海拔地区;河西地区中度、较高度和高度脆弱性区域总共占了河西地区面积的70.85%。 (2)分流域来看,河西三大内陆河流域的脆弱性明显表现为疏勒河流域最高,黑河次之,石羊河最低。疏勒河流域脆弱性明显呈现南部山区高,北部低海拔地区低的态势;表现为较高敏感性和高适应能力;黑河流域中度、较高度和高度脆弱性所占面积较大,整体表现为较高暴露度和低适应能力;石羊河流域脆弱性呈现南高北低的态势,呈高暴露度、较低敏感性和较高适应能力,整体脆弱性程度较低。 (3)通过因子贡献度的计算可以看出,以自然适应能力、社会经济敏感性、自然敏感性和自然暴露度为主要贡献因子的地区分别占河西地区总面积的91.77%、87.23%、67.85%和56.53%,降低河西地区自然适应能力、社会经济敏感性、自然敏感性和自然暴露度是降低河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性的关键所在。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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