关键词:雨涝灾害;要素投入;水稻;分位数回归;湖北 Abstract We used Rural Fixed Observation Point Data and meteorological data for Hubei Province,China from 2003 to 2011 and the Z-index method to calculate the rain-waterlog occurrence for each meteorological observation station. The normal years and years of rain-waterlog were divided and labeled according to Z-index results,and characteristics of the Z-index were analyzed. We focused on the influence of rain-waterlog on production factor investment by rice households and examined whether influences differ among households. We found that from 2003 to 2011 in Hubei,the occurrence frequency of weak rain-waterlogging was less than rain-waterlogging; strong rain-waterlogging did not occur. Areas of rain-waterlogging and weak rain-waterlogging were relatively concentrated. There is a significant difference between production factor investment by rice households in normal years and rain-waterlogged years. The occurrence of rain-waterlogging has a significant positive influence on intermediate investment and labor input,and labor input is more affected. Quantile regression shows that,with the increase in quantiles,the influence of rain-waterlogging on intermediate investment and labor input is gradually increased. It is necessary to strengthen early warning and forecasting of rain-waterlogging in Hubei,and provide necessary public services,knowledge and technological support to rice households. It is also important to improve disaster prevention and risk awareness for large growers at high factor investment levels.
Keywords:rain-waterlog;production factor investment;rice;quantile regression;Hubei -->0 PDF (829KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章收藏文章 本文引用格式导出EndNoteRisBibtex收藏本文--> 高雪, 李谷成, 范丽霞, 尹朝静. 雨涝灾害对农户生产要素投入行为的影响——基于湖北农村固定观察点数据的分析[J]. , 2017, 39(9): 1765-1776 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2017.09.14 GAOXue, LIGucheng, FanLixia, YINChaojing. Effect of rain-waterlog on the production factor investment by rice households in Hubei based on Rural Fixed Observation Point Data[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(9): 1765-1776 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2017.09.14
3.1.1 样本统计描述 样本农户特征描述性统计结果见表1,由表1可知,水稻每公顷中间投入的最大值和最小值分别为10 071.00元和208.80元,标准差较大为1194.45,说明湖北不同稻区种植户在每公顷中间投入上具有较大差异。类似地,每公顷水稻机械投入的均值为868.80元,标准差为806.55,说明湖北稻农在机械投入上也具有较大差异。综合来看,中间投入,机械投入与劳动投工量的统计数据均在一定程度上说明了水稻种植户的种植积极性存在明显不同。此外,不同地区在农田水利建设支出上存在明显差异,最小值为0.00元,说明农村基础设施较差的地区有待加强其建设。水稻价格的最大值是2.30元,最小值为1.00元,标准差为0.40,价格相对平稳但存在波动。是否受过职业教育或技术培训、是否为干部、家庭收入主要来源设置为虚拟变量。各地区的耕地细碎化、耕地面积及家庭劳动力数量的差异并不明显。 Table 1 表1 表1因变量及自变量指标的统计描述 Table 1Statistical description of dependent and independent variables
变量
均值
标准差
最小值
最大值
水稻中间投入/(元/hm2)
2 034.45
1 194.45
208.80
10 071.00
水稻机械投入/(元/hm2)
868.80
806.55
3.00
8 255.85
劳动投工量/(日/hm2)
356.70
292.05
93.75
1 500.00
是否为国家、乡、村干部
0.93
0.25
0.00
1.00
是否受过职业教育或技术培训
0.97
0.17
0.00
1.00
耕地细碎化程度/(hm2/块)
0.08
0.06
0.00
0.79
耕地面积/hm2
0.27
0.20
0.01
1.56
家庭收入主要来源
1.51
1.04
1.00
6.00
家庭劳动力数量/人
2.41
1.12
1.00
8.00
水稻价格/(元/kg)
1.63
0.40
1.00
2.30
农田水利建设支出/万元
3.35
8.75
0.00
71.83
新窗口打开 3.1.2 湖北水稻生长期雨涝灾害特征分析 依据Z指数,将接近正常的年份定义为正常年份,偏劳、大涝或者极涝的年份均定义为雨涝灾害年份。湖北省12个站点2003-2011年Z指数核算结果见表2,由表2可知,9年间12个站点出现正常年份的频率为0.81,发生偏涝的频率为0.08,出现大涝的频率为0.10,说明9年间湖北整体上偏涝少于大涝,极涝并未出现。9年间不同地区的雨涝灾害等级有所不同,大涝、偏涝发生区域较为集中。从样本村来看,大涝主要集中于鄂东丘陵岗地双季稻区、鄂东南低山丘陵双季稻区及鄂西北山地单季稻区,本文这一结论与邓爱娟等[46]的强降水中心多发生在鄂东南地区这一结论较为一致。偏涝主要集中于鄂西南山地单季稻区、鄂中丘陵岗地单季稻区、江汉平原双季稻区,其中,个别地区在某一年也发生了大涝,例如襄阳县2005年的Z指数为1.548,汉川县2004年为1.048,宣恩县2010年为1.071。 从时间上看,2010年是出现雨涝次数最多的年份,其中有6个村大涝,分别是大冶县、浠水县、咸宁市、郧县、宣恩县和通山县,3个村偏涝,分别为江陵县、天门市、长阳县。2004年有2个村大涝,分别是汉川县和新洲县,天门市则偏涝。2005年襄阳县、郧县大涝。2008年襄阳县、天门市、长阳县偏涝。2007年仅有襄阳县偏涝、2009年仅有长阳县偏涝。相比而言,2006年以及2011年份各村Z指数均接近正常。 Table 2 表2 表22003-2011年样本村的Z指数 Table 2Z index of Sample villages from 2003 to 2011
根据研究结论,本文提出如下政策建议: (1)做好湖北省水稻生长期内的雨涝灾害等极端天气的预警及防御工作,对相关雨涝灾害频发区进行重点防御,例如,大涝多发区的鄂东及鄂东南双稻区。及时且有效的气候信息对农户提前应对雨涝灾害至关重要,因此,政府在提供预警工作的同时,需充分发挥公共服务等职能,为农户提供必要的气候及相应的技术信息。 (2)调整水稻生产要素的投入结构,优化投入方式,是稻农在极端天气事件频发下的主动适应行为。这些行为将有利于降低雨涝灾害带来的不利影响。但由于雨涝灾害对不同要素投入的影响程度不同,农户应有意识地提前做好判断或准备工作,在调整过程中有所偏重。对于投入较高的种植大户而言,关注雨涝灾害等极端天气的相关信息是更为重要的,只有形成风险意识,及时并有效地调整要素投入,才能最大程度地降低损失。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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