关键词:行业减排;投入产出;结构调整;技术减排 Abstract Sectors’ CO2 emissions is one of the largest drivers of accelerated global warming and China needs to urgently face this environmental issue. The mitigating order of sector and development countermeasures are significant for mitigating CO2 emissions. Promoting industrial structural upgrades and environmental technology are two important approaches currently used by China to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here,from the aspects of structural adjustment and technological progress,a general framework for the mitigating order of sector and development countermeasures was innovated to mitigate CO2 emissions and release environmental pressures. This study was based on the Ghosh input-output model and sensitivity analysis. We analyzed all sectors in China and combined them into 40 sectors,adopted an input-output table for 2002 and 2012,and CO2 emission data. In order to better control growth in CO2 emission from sectors we analyzed five typical sector indicators. We found that technological progress should be preferentially carried out in 18 sectors(including nonmetal mineral products) to reduce emissions;13 sectors (including oil and gas extraction),should limit development speed because this would have a large effect on emissions and low economic impact. We arrived at four countermeasures. On the one hand,further applied research has proven the practicality and scientificity of this general method;and on the other hand it provides a solid foundation for government and reference of emission reduction policies to adjust industrial structure,develop environmental technology and reduce carbon emissions. The method here is applicable to many countries and regions that want to achieve a low carbon economy.
行业减排的优先次序在本文中指基于行业的环境影响和经济影响,而确定的行业结构减排的先后次序和技术减排的先后次序,因此在确定减排优先次序时需综合考虑行业规模、需求增长、行业关联性、减排成本、减排潜力、国际差距等多方面问题,根据不同行业的发展规模、发展阶段和技术成熟度,制定不同的减排对策。本文构建了国家(地区)行业节能减排优先次序确定和差别对策制定的一般框架(图1),提出了国家(地区)行业节能减排优先次序确定和差别对策制定的一般方法。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图1行业减排优先次序和发展对策研究框架 -->Figure 1The framwork of sector order and different strategies to reduce CO2 emissions -->
在前人研究成果的基础上,选取经济重要性指标、边际增长碳排放指标、技术减排潜力指标和技术减排成本指标四个一般性指标。上述四个指标反映各行业经济增长、经济规模、行业关联与碳排放量、二氧化碳排放强度的关系,可以作为结构减排和技术减排合理的评价指标。 (1)结构调整方面。结构调整方面的指标包括经济重要度指标和边际增长碳排放指标,这两个一般指标的代表性指标很多,本文选取了行业经济增长贡献率、感应度系数和边际增长碳排放量这三个具体指标。行业经济增长贡献率指各个行业的增加值增量占国内生产总值(GDP)增量的比重,反映各个行业对GDP增长的贡献程度;感应度系数是假定生产技术不发生变化时,国民经济中所有行业每增加一个单位最终使用,某一行业由此而受到的需求感应程度,也代表了该行业在行业体系中的重要性。边际增长的碳排放量是当行业的增加值增加一定量时,通过投入产出的乘数效应,经济部门中总碳排放量的增量。上述三个指标帮助决策者从行业的经济影响和环境影响两个方面判断各个行业结构调整的方向。 (2)技术减排方面。技术减排方面的指标包括技术减排潜力和技术减排成本两个一般性指标,本文选取了二氧化碳排放强度年均下降率和技术-经济边际替代率两个代表性指标。二氧化碳排放强度年均下降率指各行业二氧化碳排放强度每年下降的平均速度,描述各行业历史年份技术进步的节能减排效应,也反映未来短期内各个行业技术减排的潜力。技术-经济边际替代率是在其他条件不变时,为弥补单个行业的增加值增加所带来的碳排放量,该行业的二氧化碳排放强度下降,二者变化率的比值定义为技术-经济边际替代率。上述两个指标从行业技术减排的潜力和技术减排的成本衡量了各个行业技术减排的难易程度。 上述两方面指标的具体说明见表1。 Table 1 表1 表1模型指标选取 Table 1The selection of model index
中国正处于经济转型的关键期,中国政府明确提出了量化的节能减排约束指标,经济部门需要从高碳经济平稳过渡到低碳经济,优化行业结构、降低碳排放强度、提高能源效率。与美日欧相比,中国行业的能源和碳排放强度明显高于发达国家,行业结构调整和技术进步还有巨大空间和潜力。 本文构建的一般方法充分考虑经济增长、经济规模和碳排放量、二氧化碳排放强度之间的关系,全面衡量了行业规模、需求增长、行业关联性、减排成本、减排潜力、国际差距等多个方面,为之后国家(地区)确定行业减排优先次序、制定行业减排方案提供了参考,具有一定的实际应用价值。但是,本文也存在一定不足:行业减排优先次序的确定和差别对策提出都是基于历史数据的分析,没有考虑未来经济发展速度、能源消费结构、能源消费量等约束条件,进口产品对国家(地区)内的替代作用也未考虑,在考察行业的经济影响时,没有考虑就业等指标。此后的进一步研究中,可以加入相关约束条件,在更好地预测行业规模、碳排放量和二氧化碳排放强度之间关系的基础上,制定行业减排对策。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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