王一帆3,
白江涛4,
小林雄河5
1. 云南大学历史地理研究所, 云南 昆明 650091
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
3. 浙大宁波理工学院, 浙江 宁波 315100
4. 西安地图出版社, 陕西 西安 710054
5. 陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院, 陕西 西安 710119
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划"全球变化研究及应对"项目（批准号：2018YFA0605602）资助
详细信息
作者简介: 潘威, 男, 38岁, 副教授, 历史自然地理研究, E-mail: panwei@ynu.edu.cn
中图分类号: P467;P468.0+26 收稿日期:2020-10-27
修回日期:2020-12-28
刊出日期:2021-03-30
The directional change of typhoon and social influence in coastal areas of Eastern China and Japan from 1650s to 1900s
PAN Wei1,2,,WANG Yifan3,
BAI Jiangtao4,
KOBAYASHI Yuga5
1. Institute of Historical Geography, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, Yunnan
2. Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101
3. Ningbo Tech University, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang
4. Xi'an Atlas Press, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi
5. Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Economic and Social Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, Shaanxi
MSC: P467;P468.0+26
--> Received Date: 27 October 2020
Revised Date: 28 December 2020
Publish Date: 30 March 2021
摘要
摘要:西北太平洋地区是世界范围内的台风活跃地区，将台风活动序列延长至器测时代之前，有助于揭示本区域台风的长时段活动特征；对历史时期台风现象的研究也有助于总结出台风-社会关系的历史相似型。本研究利用中日两国的多种历史文献材料，在ArcGIS环境下重建了1650~1900年代今中国浙江、上海、江苏为主的华东地区与日本本州、四国、九州地区的台风频率和运动路径等信息。基于本文重建的入境台风频率和运动路径，得到如下认识：1820~1850年代，中日两国都存在着非常严重的涝灾，在中国表现为华东地区雨涝频繁，在日本则表现为关东、关西普遍的"风水害"。这一现象与此阶段台风运动路径的转变密切相关，经M-K检验，1820年代，中国华东地区台风存在着突发性的转向，西向台风数量明显增多，西向台风由于深入内陆，台风灾害范围扩大，在长江下游地区造成大范围的严重雨涝灾害，由此对清王朝的赋税收入造成了重大损失，极大动摇了清朝的传统财政基础。在日本，自1820年之后，台风活动范围由关西向关东延伸，由此引发了严重的"风水害"，这一现象持续至1850年代，造成了日本全国性的饥荒，导致幕府将军与各藩大名、中下层武士的对立，成为瓦解德川幕府统治的重要原因之一。19世纪前中期东亚地区异常的台风活动参与了当时中、日社会经济的衰退，气候因素加速了东亚传统社会的崩溃。
关键词: 台风/
中国华东/
日本/
19世纪中期/
气候变化
Abstract:The northwest Pacific region is the typhoon active region worldwide. Extending the sequence of typhoon activity to the period of instrument measurement is helpful to reveal the regional characteristics of typhoon activity over a long period. The study of typhoon phenomena in the historical period also helps to summarize the historical similarity of typhoon-society relations.
East China, including present-day Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu provinces, and the Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu regions of Japan are in the active typhoon region worldwide(25°~30°N, 115°~125°E). In this study, various historical documents from China and Japan were used to reconstruct the typhoon frequency, movement track and other information of Eastern China, mainly Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, as well as Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu, Japan in the 1650s and 1900s by using ArcGIS technology.
Extending the typhoon activity sequence to the instrumental measurement era can help reveal the long-time activity characteristics of typhoons in the region. And the study of typhoon phenomena in historical periods can also help summarize the historical similarity of typhoon-society relationships. In this study, by using various historical documentary materials such as Chinese and Japanese archives, local gazetteers, notebooks-diaries, modern newspapers, and early meteorological records, we extracted typhoon information, clarified the motion direction of single inbound typhoons through the diagnostic method of typhoon information in historical documents and the diagnostic method of spatial and temporal processes of single historical typhoons, and reconstructed information such as typhoon frequency changes and motion paths of the above-mentioned areas in the 1650s~1900s under ArcGIS environment. It was found that the 2~4 year cycle of Japan was concentrated in 1760s, while there was a 4~8 year cycle of East China typhoon at this time; until 1820~1850s, the 2 and 4 year cycles of Japanese typhoon were more obvious, while there was no cyclic fluctuation of East China typhoon at this time. In addition, in the 1820s, there was a sudden shift of typhoons in East China, and the number of westward typhoons increased significantly. As the westward typhoons penetrated deeper into the interior, the scope of typhoon disasters expanded, causing widespread severe rain and flooding in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which caused significant losses to the tax revenues of the Qing Dynasty and greatly shook the traditional financial foundation of the Qing Dynasty. In Japan, after 1820, typhoon activity extended from the Kansai region to the Kanto region.
Based on the reconstruction analysis in this paper, there was very serious flooding in both China and Japan during 1820s~1850s, characterized by frequent flooding in Eastern China and widespread "Typhoon disasters"(风水害) in Kanto and Kansai in Japan. This phenomenon is closely related to transformational movement path of typhoon in this stage. Tested by the M-K, in the 1820s, there is a wide range of severe flooding in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River caused by sudden change of the typhoon in Eastern China, significant increase of volume of the and expansion of typhoon disasters for thrust of westward typhoon inland, which caused a great loss of tax revenue of Qing Dynasty and greatly shakened the traditional financial foundation of it. In Japan, since 1820, typhoons extended from Kansai to Kanto, which seriously damaged "Typhoon disasters". This phenomenon lasted until 1850s, causing a nationwide famine in Japan, which led to the opposition between shoguns and other daimyos, middle and lower samurai, and became an important reason for the collapse of the Rule of the Tokugawa Shoguns.
In the early and middle 19th century, the abnormal typhoon activities in East Asia became one of the important reasons for weakening the traditional political systems in China and Japan. Thus, climate change indirectly promoted the Chinese and Japanese societies to enter the modern stage.
Key words:typhoon/
Eastern China/
Japan/
the mid-19th century/
climate change
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