龚绪龙^1,2,,
张岩^1,2,
顾春生^1,2,
张其琪^1,2,
张鑫全³,
卢毅^1,2,
苟富刚^1,2
1. 江苏省地质调查研究院, 江苏 南京 210080
2. 国土资源部地裂缝地质灾害重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210080
3. 中铁大桥勘测设计院, 江苏 南京 210080

基金项目: 江苏省国土厅科技项目"苏南典型岩溶塌陷地裂缝成因机理研究"（批准号：2017001）、"基于概率积分方法潜山型地裂缝空间预测可视化研究"（批准号：2018050）和苏南现代化建设示范区综合地质调查（批准号：12120115043201）共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 龚绪龙, 男, 37岁, 高级工程师, 主要从事水文地质、工程地质和环境地质研究, E-mail:xulonggong@126.com

中图分类号: P642

收稿日期:2019-05-12
修回日期:2019-09-13
刊出日期:2019-11-30

A spatial prediction method for buried hill type ground fissure based on probability integral method

Gong Xulong^1,2,,
Zhang Yan^1,2,
Gu Chunsheng^1,2,
Zhang Qiqi^1,2,
Zhang Xinquan³,
Lu Yi^1,2,
Gou Fugang^1,2
1. Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210080, Jiangsu
2. Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of Land and Resources, Nanjing 210080, Jiangsu
3. China Railway Major Bridge Reconnaissance & Design Institute Co, Ltd, Nanjing 210080, Jiangsu


MSC: P642

--> Received Date: 12 May 2019
Revised Date: 13 September 2019
Publish Date: 30 November 2019


摘要
摘要:苏南地区锡北镇地裂缝灾害活跃，且为典型的基岩潜山型抽水沉降地裂缝。以无锡锡北镇杨墅里地裂缝为研究对象（31.703174°~31.705488°N，120.452707°~120.453410°E），基于非连续介质理论，运用概率积分方法建立基岩潜山条件下的抽水沉降裂缝空间预测数学模型。运用该理论模型计算得出基岩潜山上覆岩土体的差异性沉降规律、地表倾斜程度及地表曲率变化规律，并指出地表倾斜程度与地表曲率为地裂缝易发位置的重要评价指标。将地裂缝空间预测数学模型计算出的沉降规律、地裂缝发生位置等结果与物理模型试验结果进行对比研究，结果显示：1）当W"（x）=0时，地表倾斜函数取得极值，此时x=±0.8 m，表明距模型左边界2.6 m与4.2 m处地表倾斜程度最大，差异性沉降最为明显。2）当W"'（x）=0时，地表曲率函数取得极值，x=0，表明在距模型左边界3.4 m处地表曲率最大，为拉应力集中位置。3）模型试验地裂缝集中发生2.4~2.6 m、3.3~3.5 m和3.9~4.2 m这3处；基于概率积分方法的潜山型地裂缝空间预测结果与物理模型试验结果基本一致。预测模型能够合理解释物理模型试验中潜山山腰及潜山山顶三处地裂缝的发生位置，验证了其正确性，为地裂缝空间预测方法提供了新的研究思路。
关键词: 地裂缝/
概率积分方法/
基岩潜山/
抽水沉降/
空间预测

Abstract:Ground fissure disaster in the south of Jiangsu, especially in Yangshuli Village, is increasingly serious. The ground fissures are located at 31.703174°~31.705488°N and 120.452707°~120.453410°E, and are influenced by the location of the buried hill as well as the ground subsidence caused by pumping water. Based on discontinuous medium theory, a spatial prediction mathematical model was established by using the method of probability integration. The differential settlement law and the degree of surface tilt as well as the surface curvature function were deduced according to the mathematical model. We found that the surface tilt function and the surface curvature function were important evaluation indexes for determining the location of ground fissures. Comparison of the result from the prediction mathematical model with the result physical model test shows that:(1) When W" (x)=0, the value of the surface tilt function obtains the maximum. It indicates that the degree of surface tilt reaches the maximum at the places of 2.6 m and 4.2 m away from the left boundary of the model. The differential settlement is most significant at the two places. (2) When W"' (x)=0, the value of the surface curvature function obtains the maximum, It shows that the value of surface tilt reaches the maximum at the place of 3.4 m away from the left boundary of the model. In addition, it the Position that tensile stress is concentrated. (3) In the test model, the fissures appear in three places, respectively 2.4~2.6 m, 3.3~3.5 m and 3.9~4.2 m away from the left boundary of the test model. Above all, the results shows that the spatial prediction results of the mathematical model were consistent with the physical model test results. The prediction model can reasonably explain the location of the three ground fissures in the buried hillside and the buried hilltop in the physical model test, which verifies the correctness of the prediction model. This provides a new research idea for the space prediction of ground fissures.
Key words:ground fissures/
probability integral method/
buried hill/
extraction of groundwater/
prediction method



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